A blockbuster showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal is on the cards for Saturday in Monte-Carlo. A much more surprising semifinal pits Tomas Berdych against Gael Monfils.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Djokovic and Nadal will be squaring off for the 43rd time in their careers when they collide all too early in the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters semifinals on Saturday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at 23-19 in favor of Nadal, who is a dominant 14-4 against Djokovic on clay. They have not faced each other since the 2014 French Open final, won by the Spaniard 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4. Djokovic, however, is a much more respectable 4-5 in their last nine clay-court meetings and one of those five losses came in a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 9-7 thriller in the 2013 Roland Garros semis. Overall, the Serb has won four of their last five encounters.
Comfortably ranked No. 1 in the world, Djokovic has been beating up not just on Nadal in recent times. Everyone his been at his mercy, including 15 consecutive opponents and 28 of 30 during this 2015 campaign. So far in Monte-Carlo, Djokovic has rolled over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Marin Cilic. Nadal cruised past Lucas Pouille before needing three-setters against both John Isner and David Ferrer. Friday’s all-Spanish quarterfinal battle lasted two hours and 44 minutes, longer than the other three quarterfinal matches combined. The word No. 5 is going to be counted out as a result of his modest current form and tough tests the past few days, but he will raise his level when required. Nadal’s eight Monte-Carlo titles and 14-4 clay-court record against Djokovic will give the underdog–yes, the underdog–confidence he has not enjoyed since last year’s French Open.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (14) Gael Monfils
Monfils was not even initially entered in Monte-Carlo, but he asked for a late wild card and the decision to play has paid off in a big way. After scraping past Andrey Kuznetsov in three sets, the 18th-ranked Frenchman beat an in-form Alexandr Dolgopolov, upset Roger Federer in straights, then hammered Grigor Dimitrov 6-1, 6-3 on Friday.
Berdych has not dropped a single set while taking out Sergiy Stakhovsky, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Milos Raonic. The sixth-seeded Czech’s road to the last four was made even more routine by Raonic’s retirement at 5-2 in the opening set of their quarterfinal clash. Berdych is leading head-to-head series with Monfils 5-1, including 2-0 already this season. But the world No. 8 benefited from an indoor hard court in Rotterdam and Monfils had to retire in Miami after falling on his hip. Monfils is looking like a different player now, especially on clay. He has been moving his opponents all over everywhere and he will do the same to Berdych, whose mediocre movement is at its worst on the slow stuff.
Pick: Monfils in 2
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Rafa’s post-match press-conference (full transcript):
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=108462
I was devastated after Rafa lost to Verdasco in Miami. That is the kind of loss that is so hard to take. But I am okay with the loss to Novak because the real Rafa has now shown up! The real Rafa is back. He is in the fight, battling and back to his fierce self. Now I never like to see Rafa lose and certainly not to Novak, but there are so many good things to take out of this. The scoreline does not reflect the closeness of the match. Now Rafa knows what he needs to work on. This is the best Rafa has played and not only is the game starting to come together but even more important, the mental strength. It was good for Rafa to take his measure against Novak. Now he can move on with some real confidence knowing that he is playing better now than he was at MC last year.
Rafa does have a tough draw at Barcelona, but I think he’s up for it. Bring it on!
There is something else that has gotten lost in the discussion. Rafa is healthy!
No preview for the final? At this rate Novak may get the Masters record this year.
Let people say what they want to say. Fact is , rafa is back on track!
Everything that happened during his loss to djokovic can easily be put into perspective.
Rafa got off to a quick start and djokovic was shaky. Rafa had a very good length on his groundstrokes and he was stepping in. The dynamics of the match slowly changed in novak’s favor and here are some of the things that made that possible:
– Even though rafa had good length on his backhand during the first set, he did not have enough confidence to hit penetrative drives CC. Rafa in peak form is able to mix that up and he NEEDS that penetration to out maneuver djokovic. This is quite normal, he gives more air to his backhand when he is in the process of regaining his form.
– Rafa was hitting his forehand with good aggression but the potency of it gradually faded as the match progressed. As the explained, he did not have enough explosiveness in his legs due to fatigue , which prevented him from being aggressive.
Rafa said he is satisfied with his forehand. If we compare it with last year’s RG, his forehand needs to go up a full gear. The feel on inside-out and DTL needs to improve and he needs more confidence to take DTL forehand on the rise.
– Novak took advantage as soon as the length on rafa’s strokes got reduced. Novak is the ultimate master of spreading the court with his backhand. He allowed rafa to play ONLY 56% of shots as forehands in set 1 !! This is amazing as rafa’s aim is usually at least 70%. He took away the run-around forehand by being deadly accurate and powerful with his backhand DTL. Rafa was not able to play enough forehand DTL’s to put novak off rhythm.
-Rafa had 2 more winners in set 1 than novak but had 5 less winners in set 2. The dynamics changed. Rafa was not able to penetrate and made more UE than usual.
– Novak Killed rafa’s body serve. There was a 196kmh body serve which novak magically hit for a return winner off his forehand to reach 40-30 in that 3-3 game in set 2.
**Rafa’s using a new racket. Controlling the ball with a new stick requires some time.
** Rafa is slowly regaining his fitness. he needs more EXPLOSIVENESS in his legs when playing these matches. Now he will be dispatching other opponents with more ease and hence saving energy while also building muscular strength.
** Rafa was NOT able to penetrate into novak’s rock solid baseline game in Rome’14 final and had disappointing number of forehand winners. In three weeks time, he had a dozen more forehand winners in the french open final.
**One of the best news : rafa’s passing shots are BACK.
**SORRY FOR THE LENGTH OF THE POST , FOLKS
And who would know better than Uncle Toni 🙂
“I believe, I really believe, that if we continue as we are, that Rafael´s level is good enough to win Roland Garros”,
“Rafael will be fit enough to battle for it, because of the level I’ve been watching him play at. The only thing missing is to be able to keep up that level of play over a long time… I think he can very definitely compete for Roland Garros. That court is good to us”
“The first big TESTwas being able to keep calm again when on a tennis court, and to play high-intensity matches and not drop our guard, which is what had been happening to us in recent tournaments, and we’ve done it”
“We are doing much better than when we got there”.
(Source : Marca)
well, there is a wave of optimism in the nadal camp. Why should we be pessimistic?!
I say, he is in a much better state right now than he was last year !! VAMOS RAFA.
^^
Thank you for Uncle Toni’s reassuring words, @vamosrafa. I think Uncle Toni’s optimism is well founded. Rafa definitely looks calmer than he did last year this time round. You can tell this is something he has been working on. Well done Uncle Toni!
What Rafa now needs is momentum. If he wins Barcelona with that loaded draw, be afraid, be very afraid………………
Paris, with a bullet!
I hope Team Rafa’s focus going into Paris is to continue working on improving the missing bits in Rafa’s game and not worry about winning against Novak if they meet before Paris. Rafa must beat everybody else and go for broke against Novak in Paris. Of course if they meet before then and Rafa beats him, I will be okay with the result!
I have a feeling THIS RG is make or break for Novak. If he does not win it he may go into a tailspin like he did after that painful loss to Rafa in Madrid (can’t remember the year……)
Nole’s head most years is full of anticipated glory. Not that he doesn’t have much to back it up, but still…
That’s an understatement. He’s won the last four Masters 1000, WTF and AO holding the largest point lead over No. 2 in ATP history.
As I said (and Ricky failed to understand in his recent article), a confident Nadal is Djokovic’s greatest threat this year, certainly not Federer.
Note that Nole has achieved all of this while Rafa has been injured or off-form taking a page directly out of Federer’s playbook.
#WhileTheCatsAway…
Rusedski making some sense :
“Djokovic has to win the French before we can say we have a new ‘King of Clay’ and the best player always wins in a three out of five set match so until Djokovic does that Rafa is still the king.
“Nadal will go deep in Barcelona and don’t be surprised if he wins that event and then after that you’re going to have Rome and Madrid, so he’s going to build nicely.
“He’s also also changed his racket, so it’s giving him a little bit more power and SPIN. It takes a little while to adjust. He finally put it into play in Monte Carlo so once those areas become what he wants it to be he will become even better.
“All those Rafa fans out there – don’t worry – he’s getting better week in, week out.”
Great words and analysis VR.
it’s the fedole fans that are beginning to worry.
Vamos!
thanks hawkeye! 🙂
and yeah, time for fedole fans to start worrying big time. Rafa’s winning Barca with a tough draw in place. Cannot wait!
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hawkeye,
I am in complete agreement with your posts @ 1:53 and 1:55 pm. There is no question in my mind that Rafa is the biggest threat to Novak. Fed may be #2 for now and that is a great accomplishment at his age, but he’s not going to challenge Novak. Certainly not in slams. Rafa showed in that semifinal match that he is the one who can take it to Novak and stay with him when he is mentally and physically at his best.
plus, I think there are so many mini battles going on in rafole matches. The dynamics of their rivalry hinges on a range of mini-battles. There are a lot of tactical things going on there even though many like to discredit these two by saying they only play grinding rallies.
-Rafa’s serving patterns, which were giving nole problems after rafa made adjustments post 2011, are not hurting nole that much now. Rafa needs to make minor adjustments and all it takes to swing the balance is minor adjustments because they are very closely matched up. The body serve was very well anticipated by nole on important points and he punished rafa.
-Nole now by default expects a lot of rafa’s forehands to go to his own forehand so he is often waiting there. Because of this anticipation, he is able to hit forehand DTLs and prevent rafa from hitting powerful run-around forehands (rafa’s biggest weapon).
– Rafa did not do enough to counter nole’s forehand DTLs in the open court. he needs to anticipate those a tad better and hit more authoritative CC forehands in the open court to take adv.
-Nole is making rafa hit a lot of forehands in rafa’s forehand corner and by using his backhand to deadly effect, he makes rafa play either counter-attacking or defensive backhands on the deuce side (from where rafa LOVES to hit run-around booming forehands either inside-out or inside-in).
– Nole hits drop shots on important points and on MOST of the times, he closes in, and hits a lob off rafa’s backhand slice dink! He has been doing that for quite some time now but still catches rafa off guard sometimes.
So it is all about utilizing your own strengths as much as possible to exploit your opponent’s relative weaknesses. Rafa hit a lot of heavy, deep balls in the centre of the court in RG 2013 semi and that really set up inside out forehands for him as nole was robbed off the angles he needs to hit effective CC backhands.
Rafa is a tactical genius. He will find the answers .
Thanks vamosrafa
I think Rafa needs to hit the middle of the court a lot more to rob Novak the angles and he can then hot IO FHs for winners. You are right VR, he hit tons of those in RG 2013 semi and they came a lot in 5th set .
vamosrafa,
I don’t want to embarrass you, but I just have to say a huge thank you for your analysis of Rafa’s semifinal match with Novak. You have a keen eye for detail and can dissect the nuances and strategies that make this rivalry so interesting.
You had so much to say that I hardly know where to respond. But you did clarify for me what the problem is with Rafa’s serving. I could see that it wasn’t effective enough against Novak, but didn’t know the why. Also your observations about Rafa’s forehand and the backhand were enlightening.
I do think that Rafa is going to take good things out of this match. Now he knows what must be done. I am also heartened by Uncle Toni’s comments about Rafa’s performance in MC. So he also sees that Rafa is now able to fight and battle mentally in the crucial moments of the matches. He also realizes that Rafa must now work to maintain that high level of play for a longer time. That’s like the last piece of the puzzle.
Some of the fans on VB were a bit concerned with Rafa citing fatigue after the Ferrer match. But it’s not like the leg cramping that happened to Rafa earlier this year. I don’t see this as unusual or anything new. Rafa said it in 2013 when he lost to Novak in the MC final. He didn’t have his legs under him. He didn’t have that explosiveness that is so important. It takes time to get back to top fitness and now that Rafa is two years older tha in 2013, it’s harder.
I have to say that there were times in that match when Novak’s face said it all. I think he was surprised to see Rafa playing so well at moments in the match. I was really proud of Rafa for being able to hang in there. The score might look like a rout, but watching the match you realize that it turned on a few things. Rafa is not quite there yet, but that’s okay.
I also appreciate Rusedski’s comments. I am not going to read any of the negativity. My advice to sanju and any other Rafan is to avoid reading the negativity on sites like ATP. I don’t read anything except here and on VB. I think talk is cheap and the know-nothings will jump to absurd conclusions. Let them do it. Because in the end, they will look quite foolish.
I am feeling good about Rafa’s prospects now.
haha….NNY, thanks a lot 🙂 and as usual, your own comments are very enlightening and also spot on! this fatigue is very different from the one he experienced early in the year. He has had this before!
This one is for all Rafans. I just read this post on VB by forum member cliffsiders. It was a tweet from Carole Bouchard. Here it is –
Carol Bouchard just Tweeted this:
Djokovic explains that the match vs Nadal demanded a lot to him mentally and physically. Paid price a bit today. “Today I won w/ my heart”
Now we know that it was far from easy for Novak to take out Rafa. A Rafa who was nowhere near his best. All I can say is, watch out, Novak. It’s only going to get worse for you!
It’s quite something to hear Novak admit what it took out of him to beat our Rafa. 🙂
lol this is good stuff! thanks for posting this 🙂
it was far, far from a rout! novak had to work really hard. he knows that rafa knows ithat and uncle toni knows ithat too 😉
Oh no, now Nole too is an unreliable source! 🙂
Hahaha! I am enjoying reading through the Novak and Fe centric websites. The level of willful Rafa-pessimism is stunning! Rafa is delusional, Rafa is toast, Rafa got lucky at RG the last 4 years blah, blah, blah………………
More luck for Rafa at RG 2015, please!
When Rafa wins, Rafans gush over HIM. What I am noticing with Nole fans is when Novak wins of late, they talk about Rafa! I guess that is why we are called Rafanatics (some of us). Tell you what, guilty as charged! Why would I want to talk about another player during a Rafa win??? All I will be wanting is to enjoy the victory, no? But then again, there is enjoyment in denigrating other people…………..
I sense those are nervous glances from Nolefam………..
Relax guys, Paris is still a long way away, the truth will be revealed then!
Vamos!!
I have never understood behavior of some fans. Many Nole fans are openly predicting calendar slam for him this year. I cant help but laugh at the silliness of it. I mean I am not saying he cannot, but predicting it ? 🙂
I think since Rafa has been Feds main rivala nd is also Noles main rival, he gets the lions share of brickbats from fans of both players. Does Fed get that from Noles fans though Fed keeps beating him on and off. Does Murray get it? Does Nole get a beating from Fed fans as much as Rafa gets? It just says that Rafa is the main rival of both and he is the one feared more. Hell even Fed fears Rafa more than Novak, so does Novak fear Rafa more than Fed.
My sense is that, before 2011, most Nolefans empathized with Rafans because Nole used to suffer the same “shade” thrown by Fed, as Rafa, if not more. Nolefans’ calculation is that Novak has to surpass Rafa before he can gun for Fed’s records so it makes sense that they should “target” Rafa now. They have help from most Fedfans who have always hated Rafa for the constant humiliation he visits their God, Fed.
So, Rafa is getting it from both sides: Nolefans and Fedfans currently. Muzza is not a threat to either Nole or Fed so his fans are spared opprobrium, for now.
I do not see any negatives from Muzzafans, in fact I see they tend to defend Rafa quite a lot.
We know that Fed fans desperately want Novak to stop Rafa from equaling or surpassing Fed’s slam record. They don’t fear Novak at this time, because he is not an immediate threat to Fed’s legacy. However, Rafa’s lopsided h2h over Fed is already a thorn in the side of his rabid fans. They can’t get around it, can’t hide from it and become positively enraged whenever it is brought up. Because that is the one glaring asterisk and black mark on Fed. His main rival has owned him in the h2h.
Rafa is the key player in these rivalries so he is going to be the main target. I am happily avoiding reading any of the nonsense from either Novak or Fed fans right now. I have always said that talk is cheap. It means nothing. What counts is what happens on the court. That’s how Rafa feels. He is dealing with the business of getting back to his best. I would rather focus on Rafa and read reasonable observations from rational people, rather than dwelling on the miserable ramblings of the haters.
I am just happy to see the real Rafa back on the court. I look forward to Barcelona and hope Rafa does even better there!
The exact of everything Tiggy says below:
“If Djokovic is in pole position again, where does that leave Nadal? Is it possible that, as the chaser rather than the chased, he’s right where he wants to be?”
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/04/starting-their-engines/54691/#.VTU7SSFVhBd
Nole may move like the gazelle but Rafa prefers to hunt like the cheetah.
(And Roger, he just cheetah all the time.)
Yes, I think Rafa is right where he wants to be! We know that Rafa doesn’t like to be considered the favorite. He usually has to defuse the pressure coming into the clay season. This time he’s somewhat under the radar, given his struggles recently. But those who know Rafa, will realize that he is more comfortable where he is right now. He said it himself – I am not the favorite for nothing! So he can just focus on getting into his best form and let Novak have the spotlight on him and all the pressure of supposedly being the favorite.
For myself, the one who is still the favorite and will be as long as he is the reigning champ, is still Rafa! But I am glad that Rafa is okay with being right where he is and won’t stress and maybe even will be happy that he is not considered the favorite.
The silliest post from a gloating Nole fan
Hmmmm, Interesting fact to prove domination:
– Nole 13845
Federer 8385
Nadal 5435
Total 13810
So who would win if Fed and Nadal played doubles against Nole?
If he is so dominant, why does he have a losing H2H to Grandpa Federer? Also, easy to dominate when your closest rival, Rafa, has been off the tour for 6 months with injury and is slowly working his way back into it. The rest? Please.
Make the most of your good fortune, Nole!
As Fedfans are always reminding us: it’s about the Slams.
Boom!
Another thing, Rafa’s points are over a six-months period, Novak’s and Fed’s are over 12 months. Ah well, if you’re desperate to prove dominance you will gloss over such detail.
Acording to Bodo, Rafa is only keeping the seat on the King of Clay throne warm for Novak.
http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/12722317/monte-carlo-masters-novak-djokovic-contenders
“It’s hard to avoid cliché when you’re working with a title like “King of Clay,” so let’s just roll with it. The throne on which said king Rafael Nadal sat as recently as last June is now a bun-warmer for Novak Djokovic.”
I rest.
This reminds me of how Novak fans were bragging that Rafa would never beat him again after his seventh straight loss at the 2012 AO. I will always remember how one Novak fan on a tennis site asked me what I did not understand about the number ZERO! I told him that you never say never in this sport. I told him that Rafa found the answers in that epic length final at the AO and would implement them the next time he faced Novak! We all know what happened next!
Novak fans want to celebrate prematurely. Their guy has a huge lead in points as #1. So let them enjoy it. But we know that Rafa is not going anywhere. He is the one player who can challenge Novak.
So I say let them enjoy their fantasies and delusions of grandeur. They have done it before when Novak had that string of wins against Rafa. But since 2012, Rafa has gotten the better of him and most importantly, in the slams!
there is one thing that none of these experts want to talk about and it is concerning the way Novak wins on clay…how can anyone be considered the next King of Clay only based on the fact that he is successful in beating Rafa at his 50-60%? Nole lost a set to Berdy for God’s sake! You all remember what had been done to Rafa throughout his career if he happened to lose more than 3 games on clay, let alone losing a set! It immediately made news! Now we have Novak winning over Rafa who is still trying to reach his 80% (which BTW I find enough for Rafa to beat them all on clay, including mighty Novak!) If Berdy were not the mental midget he sadly is, he would have had the MC trophy in his hands…
Therefore I firmly believe hat Novak is nowhere near to dethrone the King of Clay…we will see how the RG will unwrap… but I bet it will be an interesting one…
I am not the one who tends to take only positives and to be overly optimistic…on the contrary, I try to see things in a realistic way…and what I saw in 2015 MC is:
1. Rafa played way better than this time last year
2. Rafa has a new racquet which he is still getting accustomed with, but he seems to be doing a good job on it
3. Rafa is way more confident than he was in Miami or the same time last year…
4. Rafa’s motivation increases when he is not expected to win…sometimes I think that Rafa loves being downplayed and written off to be able to prove those silly doubters wrong…
5. Rafa needs to work more on his form, his mental strength (which will come with more victories and more match play) and needs more going to the net…he is usually successful with it and it will allow him winning some easy points and save energy…players will do anything to avoid playing long points with Rafa…so Rafa needs to be well prepared to chase down those drop shots…
Rafa is going in the right direction…and whoever considers Fed to be a threat to Rafa on RG clay is being delusional…Nole is a threat if Rafa is not close to 100%…but I know that Team Rafa will do anything, all they can, to get him prepared for RG 2015…
Vamos Rafa!
Vamos Rafa!
Mark my words, if Novak wins RG 2015 (which he will not), Bodo and the desperate Novak fans will crown him the new King of Clay. Totally outrageous of course bearing in mind that would be his first and only RG compared to Rafa’s 9. Remember how some of his fans crowned Novak the new King of clay when he won his first MC crown?
If Rafa had beaten Novak at MC 2015 Novak’s fans would have said Novak was keeping his powder dry for the big prize, RG 2015. Apparently, (according to Novak fans) Novak lost RG 2015 because he was ill. He lost the year before because Rafa used gamesmanship, and the year before that because of the weather. Excuses, excuses. Funny how Fedfans jump on Rafa for so called injury excuses and say zip about Novak’s excuse for not cutting it at RG.
Name a Novak fan on a tennis forum that isn’t eastern European.
Pretty much all of the fans on tennis forums are simply Fed fans who’ve given up on their guy.
When Rafa first beat Roger at Wimbledon they immediately declared Rafa the King of Grass and Roger dethroned.
Not. 🙂
chloro,
Too funny! Don’t you love how that works? As far as the likes of Bodo, the guy has never been a fan of Rafa and hasn’t been shy about expressing it. It’s hilarious that even up to just two or three years ago, Bodo was using that old cliché about Rafa being a one-dimensional clay court player! Yet now he is ready to dethrone him.
This is why I am not reading garbage like that on the blogosphere. I want to just enjoy Rafa’s resurgence and hope that he continues to play well in Barcelona. Haters are always gonna hate.
I seem to recall someone on TT insisting maybe one or two years ago that Novak was “saving” himself for RG! I think it was chr18. I believe it was after Novak failed to win either Madrid or Rome leading up to RG. Many of us jumped all over that theory.
So should Rafa fans now say that Rafa is saving himself for RG? 🙂
Nadal in two losing 5-7 games.
As for Gulbis, hard to say as I do not know who he is playing.
Nadal in two losing 5-7 games.
As for Gulbis, hard to say as I do not know who he is playing!
I am picking Rafa to win, losing 8-10 games. I like to start off a bit conservatively.
The thing with Gulbis is that one never knows when he will wake up and decide to play tennis again. But for now I can’t pick him to win anything.