Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal took the suspense out of what looked to be exciting quarterfinal matchups in Monte-Carlo. Murray crushed Milos Raonic and Nadal cruised past Stan Wawrinka to set up a semifinal showdown on Saturday.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will be doing battle for the 23rd time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 16-6, including 6-1 on clay and 2-0 in Monte-Carlo. He beat Murray 6-2, 7-6(4) in the semis of this tournament in 2009 and again in the final four via a 6-4, 2-6, 6-1 decision in 2011. Murray managed to win their most recent clay-court contest 6-3, 6-2 in the 2015 Madrid final, but Nadal had no trouble prevailing 6-4, 6-1 at the World Tour Finals last fall.

The Spaniard has won only two clay-court titles since the 2014 French Open–none at the Masters 1000 level. With Nadal having slumped earlier this season while Novak Djokovic positively rolled through the rest of the tour, it looked as if the world No. 5 would be hard-pressed to pick up another title even on his favorite surface. But Nadal has to be considered the favorite in Monte-Carlo at this point given his own stellar play and Djokovic’s early exit at the hands of Jiri Vesely. The eight-time champion booked his spot in the semis by defeating Aljaz Bedene, Dominic Thiem, and Stan Wawrinka in straight sets.

Murray is in the midst of a much-needed productive week after falling early in Indian Wells (to Federico Delbonis in the third round) and Miami (to Grigor Dimitrov, also in the third round). The second-ranked Scot needed three sets to get past both Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Benoit Paire, even trailing Paire by a set and a double-break in the second before storming back for a 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 victory.
Murray2
On second life in Monte-Carlo, Murray picked up the pace to hammer Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 on Friday. He faced zero break points and solved the Raonic serve an impressive five times to coast in one hour and six minutes.

“Obviously I had a couple tough weeks in Indian Wells and Miami, and I haven’t played loads of tennis since Australia,” the No. 2 seed reflected. “The first couple matches here were tough matches; didn’t play particularly well. I’m just happy I managed to fight through them and now I feel a little bit more relaxed about where my game’s at.”

Murray interview:

Murray’s performance against Raonic was encouraging, but the Canadian struggled through that affair at visibly less than 100 percent. Nadal, of course, is a much different beast than Herbert, Paire, and–on this surface–even than a healthy Raonic. The last time he faced Nadal, Murray’s mind was on clay (for the Davis Cup final against Belgium). This time, Murray will actually be on clay. Neither recipe is a good one.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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40 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

  1. The forehand is doing damage now.It is not only about hitting forehand DTL winners but also about how much damage an average forehand in doing in rallies. The latter has really improved!

    AND HE BREAKS!! long rally , Rafa pushes Murray back and finishes with a forehand drop shot winner!

    Rafa’s used the forehand drop shot very smartly set 2 onward!

    WOOOHOOO ! Rafa has a firm grip on this one right now….clearly with the ascendancy

    • great to hear vr! you are right that it is the quality of the average forehand that has been lacking…
      that’s the game changer

    • Yep, Rafa ups the mph on his FH and see what damage it can cause!

      Rafa has to start hitting like this from the get go. I just dont understand why Rafa only hits this way when he has to give chase and not to take the lead from point one! Its really bizarre!

  2. That was just an example of what I was taking about. Look at the weight on the forehand! Plus, he is creating better angles too which allows him to spread the court and wear his opponent down.

    Again, he spread the court so well!

  3. Please show a stat comparing the length on his forehands in sets 1, 2 and 3….it will be an upward sloping curve! steep gradient

  4. ADMIRABLE!

    it was a netural rally, Rafa wsa hitting with good depth and prevented Andy from Attacking and then Rafa ended the point with a forehand DTL out of nowhere!!

  5. Rafa’s avg rally stroke is doing twice as much damage! He is keeping Andy pinned behind the baseline now. Even when Andy tries to come up to the baseline, he can’t do much as the length is so good

  6. YESSSSSSSSSSSSS !! THis is over now 😀 😀 😀 WOOOOHOOOOOOOO

    OH MY! the umpire is angry ! he is saying Andy was hitting the ball AT HIM towards the chair!

    Murray must start behaving better. What is he doing?!

    • was it 19?! wow!

      @amy, the umpire went in to check a mark and called the ball out (correct call)…Andy lost the game as a result and then Andy thumped the ball into the net , close to the chair. The umpire was still jogging towards his chair though, not sitting…

  7. Rafa is BULLYING him around the court now. Rafa’s forehand is so reliable at the moment that he does not even need his backhand! Cruise control!

    Starting from 2nd serve forehand returns till the last rally ball, it is a completely diff shot right now

    • indeed! Now close it out 6-2 Rafa. Don’t lose even an ounce of that momentum! You will leave the court feeling so good.

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