Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal took the suspense out of what looked to be exciting quarterfinal matchups in Monte-Carlo. Murray crushed Milos Raonic and Nadal cruised past Stan Wawrinka to set up a semifinal showdown on Saturday.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will be doing battle for the 23rd time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 16-6, including 6-1 on clay and 2-0 in Monte-Carlo. He beat Murray 6-2, 7-6(4) in the semis of this tournament in 2009 and again in the final four via a 6-4, 2-6, 6-1 decision in 2011. Murray managed to win their most recent clay-court contest 6-3, 6-2 in the 2015 Madrid final, but Nadal had no trouble prevailing 6-4, 6-1 at the World Tour Finals last fall.

The Spaniard has won only two clay-court titles since the 2014 French Open–none at the Masters 1000 level. With Nadal having slumped earlier this season while Novak Djokovic positively rolled through the rest of the tour, it looked as if the world No. 5 would be hard-pressed to pick up another title even on his favorite surface. But Nadal has to be considered the favorite in Monte-Carlo at this point given his own stellar play and Djokovic’s early exit at the hands of Jiri Vesely. The eight-time champion booked his spot in the semis by defeating Aljaz Bedene, Dominic Thiem, and Stan Wawrinka in straight sets.

Murray is in the midst of a much-needed productive week after falling early in Indian Wells (to Federico Delbonis in the third round) and Miami (to Grigor Dimitrov, also in the third round). The second-ranked Scot needed three sets to get past both Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Benoit Paire, even trailing Paire by a set and a double-break in the second before storming back for a 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 victory.
Murray2
On second life in Monte-Carlo, Murray picked up the pace to hammer Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 on Friday. He faced zero break points and solved the Raonic serve an impressive five times to coast in one hour and six minutes.

“Obviously I had a couple tough weeks in Indian Wells and Miami, and I haven’t played loads of tennis since Australia,” the No. 2 seed reflected. “The first couple matches here were tough matches; didn’t play particularly well. I’m just happy I managed to fight through them and now I feel a little bit more relaxed about where my game’s at.”

Murray interview:

Murray’s performance against Raonic was encouraging, but the Canadian struggled through that affair at visibly less than 100 percent. Nadal, of course, is a much different beast than Herbert, Paire, and–on this surface–even than a healthy Raonic. The last time he faced Nadal, Murray’s mind was on clay (for the Davis Cup final against Belgium). This time, Murray will actually be on clay. Neither recipe is a good one.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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24 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

  1. Rafa gaining confidence and precision is the key. Andy must be pleased with his performance here, too…I hope for Rafa to get better and stronger marching to the finals! I want Rafa to win in 2!

    Rafa is bringing so much joy to all of us! Go for it, Rafa!

    Vamos Champ!

  2. Rafa in three. I watched the highlights of his match with Stan. Stan was making too many unforced errors with just a few too many shots early on that could’ve given him some momentum plus Rafa really played well and had lots of energy and was ripping his forehand. Murray dominating Raonic makes me think he got a bit of a wake up call from the paire match and focused and bore down more to absolutely crush Milos. That match plus the IW final against Nole are his two worst results in terms of games won ever. Poor stuff from Milos. Was he hurt? Anyways I think based off Murray winning easy over Milos I think he gets a set but Rafa fights through in three. Let’s be real. The king of clay is winning this event. I don’t wanna jinx it but c’mon. I would say he’s a pretty heavy favorite to win the tournament now. VAMOS RAFA!! ??????

  3. Nadal is confidently making his way to the 9th Monte-Carlo crown. Considering the head-to-head stats on the surface and their current physical form, bet that that the Spanaird will win in straight sets!Keep focused

  4. Naaa…Needs to be more aggressive! That’s not going to get it done… There was just one point where rafa was dominating but missed the finishing shot.

    Anyway..now hold!

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