Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal took the suspense out of what looked to be exciting quarterfinal matchups in Monte-Carlo. Murray crushed Milos Raonic and Nadal cruised past Stan Wawrinka to set up a semifinal showdown on Saturday.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will be doing battle for the 23rd time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 16-6, including 6-1 on clay and 2-0 in Monte-Carlo. He beat Murray 6-2, 7-6(4) in the semis of this tournament in 2009 and again in the final four via a 6-4, 2-6, 6-1 decision in 2011. Murray managed to win their most recent clay-court contest 6-3, 6-2 in the 2015 Madrid final, but Nadal had no trouble prevailing 6-4, 6-1 at the World Tour Finals last fall.

The Spaniard has won only two clay-court titles since the 2014 French Open–none at the Masters 1000 level. With Nadal having slumped earlier this season while Novak Djokovic positively rolled through the rest of the tour, it looked as if the world No. 5 would be hard-pressed to pick up another title even on his favorite surface. But Nadal has to be considered the favorite in Monte-Carlo at this point given his own stellar play and Djokovic’s early exit at the hands of Jiri Vesely. The eight-time champion booked his spot in the semis by defeating Aljaz Bedene, Dominic Thiem, and Stan Wawrinka in straight sets.

Murray is in the midst of a much-needed productive week after falling early in Indian Wells (to Federico Delbonis in the third round) and Miami (to Grigor Dimitrov, also in the third round). The second-ranked Scot needed three sets to get past both Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Benoit Paire, even trailing Paire by a set and a double-break in the second before storming back for a 2-6, 7-5, 7-5 victory.
Murray2
On second life in Monte-Carlo, Murray picked up the pace to hammer Milos Raonic 6-2, 6-0 on Friday. He faced zero break points and solved the Raonic serve an impressive five times to coast in one hour and six minutes.

“Obviously I had a couple tough weeks in Indian Wells and Miami, and I haven’t played loads of tennis since Australia,” the No. 2 seed reflected. “The first couple matches here were tough matches; didn’t play particularly well. I’m just happy I managed to fight through them and now I feel a little bit more relaxed about where my game’s at.”

Murray interview:

Murray’s performance against Raonic was encouraging, but the Canadian struggled through that affair at visibly less than 100 percent. Nadal, of course, is a much different beast than Herbert, Paire, and–on this surface–even than a healthy Raonic. The last time he faced Nadal, Murray’s mind was on clay (for the Davis Cup final against Belgium). This time, Murray will actually be on clay. Neither recipe is a good one.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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25 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Murray

  1. Just following the score…what is wrong with Rafa? Is he tentative again or just Andy bringing his best game when facing Rafa? Damn it!

    • Murray totally outplaying him….Murray’s strategy is working to Perfection. Rafa’s backhand not responding. Rafa not getting any free points on serve…

  2. should have known that murray would get all fired up as usual when he plays rafa and that the new rafa would let him get away with it…

  3. Just when I begin to have confidence in Rafa he puts me back to the ground and brings back all the doubts…
    C’mon Rafa! Where is the King of Clay game? You can do this!
    Vamos Champ!

  4. Im very sad for Rafa. He’s always so tentative, waiting for things to happen. Murray OTOH takes things into his own hands – good serve, returns, FH, BH – whilst Rafa’s serve is so poor and readable. He really looks like he’s running out of ideas how to beat this Murray.

    Its only Djoko who can play this game better than Murray to beat Murray. I hope the aggressive Rafa wakes up to play! Please Rafa!

    • No. Federer has beaten Murray the last 100 tines they’ve played. He doesn’t allow Murray to control the rallies.

      Hope this helps.

  5. hahahah TWO backhand winners in the game!! He listened!

    One backhand DTL beauty and then the CC one was even better!

    Now don’t hold back…BELIEVE in yourself Rafa! Dictate! You’re the GOAT on this surface !

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