Monte-Carlo R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Thiem, Wawrinka vs. Simon

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are set for a rematch of their Buenos Aires showdown as they prepare to meet again on Thursday in Monte-Carlo. Third-round action will also feature Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon. 

(5) Rafael Nadal vs. (12) Dominic Thiem

Nadal and Thiem will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the third time on clay when they clash in round three of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Thursday. Thiem was out of his league in a 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 loss at the 2014 French Open, but a more experienced and much-improved Austrian saved one match point before pulling off a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) upset earlier this season in Buenos Aires. That is one of 26 victories for Thiem this season, good for second most on the ATP World Tour behind Novak Djokovic. The 22-year-old, who is up to 14th in the rankings, has advanced this week with three-set wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and Taro Daniel.

This, of course, is where a favorable draw ends for Thiem. Even though Nadal has not been at his best in recent times, the fifth-ranked Spaniard is still an eight-time champion in Monte-Carlo (and a nine-time winner at Roland Garros among other clay-court accolades that are too numerous to name). Looking for his first triumph at this event since 2012, Nadal kicked off his campaign in style by cruising past Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-3 on Wednesday. Thiem has been less than 100 percent this week because of a foot problem but was able to recover from a set deficit against both Struff and Daniel. Nadal, though, will be nowhere near as generous if the No. 12 seed gets off to another slow start. Unless a completely different Thiem is on display in this one, Nadal should be able to avenge his Buenos Aires defeat.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(15) Gilles Simon vs. (4) Stan Wawrinka

Wawrinka and Simon will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in favor of Wawrinka, who has won both of their previous clay-court encounters. He prevailed 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-2 at the 2012 French Open before getting the job done in much more routine 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 fashion at the same tournament last year. Simon is 2-1 against Wawrinka on hard courts after most recently coming out on top 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 at the 2014 Shanghai Masters.
Wawa 2
Wawrinka, the 2014 Monte-Carlo champion, slumped through Indian Wells and Miami but is now back on what has to be considered his favorite surface. The fourth-ranked Swiss showed signs of a slight back problem against Philipp Kohlschreiber on Wednesday but otherwise looked good in a 7-6(2), 7-5 victory. Simon has enjoyed an extremely routine start to his week, having taken out Viktor Troicki 6-3, 6-4 and Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-3. The 18th-ranked Frenchman is still a mediocre 11-7 for the season. As long as Wawrinka is 100 percent, he is likely to give Simon another clay-court lesson.

Pick: Wawrinka in 3

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38 Comments on Monte-Carlo R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Thiem, Wawrinka vs. Simon

  1. Rafa did nothing with two break chances, but the pressure of failing to convert all those break points ultimately got to Thiem. I could feel it coming. Double faulting away the set.

    Rafa did well to fight off all those break points. But I don’t think Thiem is going away.

  2. Can’t see the match but was following the live score. Can’t believe Rafa facing so many break points! Honestly, I did not expect him to win the first set but he somehow managed…it must be hard to watch this…
    C’mon Rafa! Be yourself! Where did the King of Clay disappear??
    Back on serve now…

  3. Wow! Just wow! I am so proud of Rafa fighting like a lion out there!
    Augusta please share the link for this match when you get the chance, I would love to see it!
    Vamos Champ!

  4. The story of this match was the missed break point chances. Rafa deserves credit for that. I saw some flashes of vintage Rafa in this match.

    Rafa will play Stan next. I think he’s going to have to play better against him. But a win is a win is a win!

  5. RT Pau Ferragut (a Spanish journalist): ¤¤ Nadal: “I’m really happy. I lost against Thiem in Buenos Aires and it’s a very important win to gain confidence this week in MonteCarlo”.¤¤
    ?

  6. You lot are hard taskmasters. I didn’t see the 2nd set (my elderly dog had been desperate to go out for a pee since half way through the first set) but I cant believe how tough you are all being on Rafa. Thiem was never going to be a pushover and has already established his credentials on clay including his win over Nadal in Argentina.

    This win was hugely signifIcant for Rafa’s confidence going forward for the rest of the clay season.

  7. Qutes from Rafa’s post-match interviews:
    “I think I played a good match,” said Nadal. “In terms of level of tennis, it was great, I think. In terms of fighting spirit and attitude and being ready to accept the mistakes, the good points, the tough moments, it was similar to the way that I played in Indian Wells.
    “That was a great continuation against a very tough player. I think he played a great match, too. Was a very good victory for me. Very happy for that.
    “The best thing is he didn’t play badly on the break points. It was more that I played well on the break points than he played bad.
    “So happy for that because that means that I was ready to find and make the right decisions in the most important moments. I was able to fight all the moments. I never gave up in all these tough moments that I had in the first set.”
    http://montecarlotennismasters.com/nadal-fends-off-thiem/?lang=en
    ?

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