Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are set for a rematch of their Buenos Aires showdown as they prepare to meet again on Thursday in Monte-Carlo. Third-round action will also feature Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon.
(5) Rafael Nadal vs. (12) Dominic Thiem
Nadal and Thiem will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the third time on clay when they clash in round three of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Thursday. Thiem was out of his league in a 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 loss at the 2014 French Open, but a more experienced and much-improved Austrian saved one match point before pulling off a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) upset earlier this season in Buenos Aires. That is one of 26 victories for Thiem this season, good for second most on the ATP World Tour behind Novak Djokovic. The 22-year-old, who is up to 14th in the rankings, has advanced this week with three-set wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and Taro Daniel.
This, of course, is where a favorable draw ends for Thiem. Even though Nadal has not been at his best in recent times, the fifth-ranked Spaniard is still an eight-time champion in Monte-Carlo (and a nine-time winner at Roland Garros among other clay-court accolades that are too numerous to name). Looking for his first triumph at this event since 2012, Nadal kicked off his campaign in style by cruising past Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-3 on Wednesday. Thiem has been less than 100 percent this week because of a foot problem but was able to recover from a set deficit against both Struff and Daniel. Nadal, though, will be nowhere near as generous if the No. 12 seed gets off to another slow start. Unless a completely different Thiem is on display in this one, Nadal should be able to avenge his Buenos Aires defeat.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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(15) Gilles Simon vs. (4) Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka and Simon will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in favor of Wawrinka, who has won both of their previous clay-court encounters. He prevailed 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-2 at the 2012 French Open before getting the job done in much more routine 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 fashion at the same tournament last year. Simon is 2-1 against Wawrinka on hard courts after most recently coming out on top 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 at the 2014 Shanghai Masters.
Wawrinka, the 2014 Monte-Carlo champion, slumped through Indian Wells and Miami but is now back on what has to be considered his favorite surface. The fourth-ranked Swiss showed signs of a slight back problem against Philipp Kohlschreiber on Wednesday but otherwise looked good in a 7-6(2), 7-5 victory. Simon has enjoyed an extremely routine start to his week, having taken out Viktor Troicki 6-3, 6-4 and Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-3. The 18th-ranked Frenchman is still a mediocre 11-7 for the season. As long as Wawrinka is 100 percent, he is likely to give Simon another clay-court lesson.
Pick: Wawrinka in 3
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I don’t think it’s hard to analyze rafa’s match. Thiem was going for his shots in the first set, being very aggressive and getting good court positioning. He seemed to know exactly what to do. Rafa was hanging in there, but getting out hit at times with Thiem’s firepower.
The key for Rafa was fighting off all those break points. I think the inability to convert so many break chances got to Thiem mentally and that’s why he broke down and double faulted away the first set.
I thought Rafa played much better in the second set. That’s where he unleashed some vintage shots. I don’t think Thiem had the belief after losing the first set. I think he was still thinking about al those missed break chances.
Rafa was not at his best, but he kept it together and managed to get the win against a tough opponent in straight sets. That can only help him going up against Stan.
Good, fair analysis…. Rafa’s winning these matches against tough opponent and he is not not even close to his best!! He is playing better and better and he looks poised to finish the tournament with a bang!
Vamos! Never in doubt this result.
When rafa’s playing well, his game is too much for Stan. Rafa’s game just overwhelms stan’s and that’s how it has always been.
Some haters claimed Rafa would have surely lost the AO final even if he was not injured coz Stan was playing at another level. Total crap…. Rafa’s game just imposes itself on stan and the latter can never play the way he wants to. It is easier for him to impose his game against Djokovic.
Rafa’s the toughest match up for Stan, then it is roger and finally Novak.
This is surely Rafa’s title to lose now. I would be very surprised if he loses.
He is the clear favourite in the semi but Murray has potential and I remember how he raised his level in the MC 2009 semi against Rafa and also in the 2011 semi…
Rafa should be able to get this and then the final would be easy I guess
I agree about Rafa being able to impose his game against Stan. That is exactly what Rafa did in this match. Stan came out trying to over power Rafa. But Rafa had the answers and took Stan out of his game.
Stan’s obvious frustration when he broke his racket said it all.
I think Murray will be ready for Rafa. He has been able to do well against him in the past. So I don’t expect this to be that easy. But Rafa played better against Stan and will cone out and play even better against Murray.
This title is on rafa’s racket. It’s his to lose. I don’t think I have to say what it would mean for Rafa to win MC.
I aggree about that AO2014 final. Rafa was playing very well despite his palm blister the whole AO before the final. He was dealt a tough draw there – Monfils, Kei, Dimi, Fed before the final. He only lost a set to Dimi, with his racket almost flown off his hand due to his blister.
No doubt Stan was playing well and hitting hard from both wings, but a fit and healthy Rafa would be able to chase anything down. Also, Rafa himself could play his aggressive tennis vs Stan, just like how he played vs Monfils there. Stan not known to be a good ROS or a good retriever, so Rafa could make him hit one more shot and moved him around. His SHBH was a liability vs Rafa’s topspin FH on the higher bounce AO surface.
The British commies are bigging up Murray’s win over Raonic and playing down Rafa’s win over Stan saying Stan was out of sorts. The fact is, Raonic had groin injury during his match yesterday and it was obvious he couldn’t serve well and had problems moving.
Stan knew from the 4th game that he was facing someone close to the Rafa we know that’s why he broke his racquet with frustration. He knows he stands no chance against the real Rafa.
Raonic suffered a groin injury during his Australian Open SF against Murray. He was off the tour for six weeks before the IW Masters. Probably he hasn’t recovered properly yet.
adductor
Nadal has been way more impressive than Muzz
By far.
True but Stan did make way too many errors. Unacceptable against a guy like Rafa who is playing well on his best surface. Also some early mistakes from Stan kinda dropped his spirits it seemed. Like for example at 1-1 0-15 Stan he crushed a forehand Rafa barely got it then he missed an easy smash and lost the next three points and every game the rest of the set. Not good mentally from Stan. Obviously Rafa played well and deserved it and was better all around and I’m not saying that one smash was huge but it would’ve helped if he had a 0-30 lead with some momentum and maybe got an early break.
Stan had to redline his game to have a chance against Rafa hence all the errors. Note that he was trying to hit his BH DTL instead of going CC to Rafa’s FH, in order to break away from the SHBH vs topspin FH disadvantage. He had some success initially but once Rafa figured it out, Stan couldnt do that often as Rafa was ready for it and redirected the shot again and again to Stan’s BH forcing him to go outwide and then went CC.
As I mentioned before, the SHBH vs Rafa’s topspin FH on clay will always be a disadvantage, its a matter of whether Rafa could control the rally and direct the shot time and again to opponent’s BH.
Thiem and Stan have great FHs, though not as great as Fed’s at his peak; they may have more solid SHBH; a Rafa at his peak would dispatch them more readily than he would Fed. Of course Rafa is no longer at his peak now so has to fight harder, still he could beat them on this surface when he’s playing well.
Making mistakes is not an excuse. All last year, Rafa was making too many mistakes and losing I don’t remember anyone giving him any concessions for losing by making too many mistakes.
My thinking is Rafa has significantly improved his movement in the last couple of months…the clay makes it even easier for him to move freely and successfully defend when he is pushed against the wall…he was able to defend in both of his matches not allowing guality opponents to dictate the points…that is crucial for Rafa’s game…Andy as well will not be allowed to dictate the points the way he was able in that Madrid final against Rafa…this Rafa is moving better, serving better and hitting with more precision than Rafa of 2015…
having said that, the match will sure be interesting and I will not be able to see it… 🙁 I hope my boy hits well and with confidence, and produces some King of Clay tennis!
Vamos Champ!
Rafa has improved greatly but still not at 100% peak. He is moving a lot better and timing the ball well. When he lost to Djoker in Doha, he was always at the wrong place at the wrong time not able to read where Djoker was going next but that aspect is greatly improved.
Rafa should know by now that when he is serving for the set or match his opponents go for broke and usually succeed in breaking him. He needs to have a plan for that.