Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Medvedev, Lajovic vs. Sonego

Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev battle for a spot in the Monte-Carlo semifinals on Friday after Medvedev scraped past Stefanos Tsitsipas. Meanwhile, qualifier Lorenzo Sonego tries to continue his magical run at the expense of Dusan Lajovic.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (10) Daniil Medvedev

This may be the pick of Friday’s quarterfinal matches. Daniil Medvedev has lost each of the three matches he’s played against the world No. 1, but he snagged a set from an in-form Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and he has played very well this week–dropping just one set to the No. 6 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Djokovic has looked vulnerable over the past month. The Serb, who won the Australian Open by decimating Rafael Nadal, bowed out early in Indian Wells and Miami. He dropped a set this week in his opener to Philipp Kohlschreiber, but he breezed past Taylor Fritz in the round of 16. Medvedev will be a different matter entirely.

The Russian will still be the underdog, but he will almost certainly test Djokovic. Expect a hard-fought battle with Djokovic moving through to the semis.

Cheryl pick: Djokovic in 3

Ricky pick: Djokovic in 2

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(Q) Lorenzo Sonego vs. Dusan Lajovic

To say that this would not have been anyone’s prediction for an ATP Masters quarterfinal would be quite the understatement. Lorenzo Sonego is ranked 96th in the world–and he had to qualify for this week’s event. But a little luck in drawing a badly out-of-form Karen Khachanov as his closest seed and some great play by the Italian led him to his first ATP quarterfinal, in which he will take on Dusan Lajovic.

Lajovic hasn’t had the best start to 2019. He had won more than two matches in a row since the season started until this week, but he seems to be making up for lost time. Lajovic took out a pair of seeds en route to the quarters, first David Goffin then 2018 French Open finalist Dominic Thiem in the round of 16.

Though both men are playing well, the Serb has been particularly impressive.

Cheryl pick: Lajovic in 2

Ricky pick: Lajovic in 3

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27 Comments on Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Djokovic vs. Medvedev, Lajovic vs. Sonego

  1. Firecracker Medvedev kicking a box in frustration. Really have not watched much of Medvedev. He a talker – to himself about himself and the umpire non-stop during the changeover – I don’t blame him.

    Oh dear. Nole struggling again. Also watched the Kohls v Nole match. He looked out of sorts. Maybe he can pull this together. But not holding my breath.

    Picked Nole to the SF. Not sure he’ll make it at this rate. Looks like a nice day to be sailing.

  2. Medvedev is a very bad matchup for Djokovic on clay. Just as solid from the back of the court, can hit deceptive winners on key points and is younger and physically stronger.

    • I think the wind played a part in frustrating both players at times, moreso, Nole.

      Didn’t see Tsitsipas play this week. Sorry he lost to Medvedev again. I’m starting to think Medvedev is a bad match-up for Stefanos. About Nole, the two of his matches I watched were dismal from my fan perspective. He said he was fitter than ever and looked to me to be heavier – meaning more muscle on right now. Hopefully he gets better results in Madrid and Rome.

      Good win for Daniil Medvedev. I think he’s too weak to challenge Rafa. My biggest disappointment this tournament was Thiem.

      • Medvedev shouldn’t be playing so well on clay, but he is, wind should have affected him more than anyone .Nole didn’t look that interested , as usual.

    • Yes, Novak looked both disinterested and lethargic at times. At least he beat Taylor Fritz and with a lot of effort managed to get a win over Kohls.

      Interested to see how Lajovic does vs Medvedev. Dusan has been killing it. Has yet to drop a set, anyway.

      • Wouldn’t pick him to win RG at this point but he likes playing Rome, Nole does. I’ll be happy with improvement – like not losing before the QF’s.

  3. Djokovic is not respecting his opponent enough. Down 5-1 in the 3rd e started playing like he should the whole match. He needs to lose a few GS and number one ranking again before we see the real Djokovic again.

  4. Medevedev has been the big improver this year. A couple of poor losses but overall he’s the next pick for the top 10. I think he’s a more steady and consistent performer than Tsitsipas.

    A poor matchup against Fed but I think he’ll cause problems for the rest of the tour.

    • He has been – improving. Not sure I’m ready to call him consistent because of what he shows for a temperament. But I’ve also seen him use his frustrations and bad moods to his advantage – at least against Stefanos.

      Guessing in the long run Daniil is more talented and likely to keep improving than his compatriot, Khachanov.

      Just hope he mentally doesn’t become a Benoit Paire.

    • Medvedev isn’t great at the slams, he may be another Sasha in the making. Medvedev hasn’t gone past the QF in a masters and this is the first time I think. He is like Tsitsipas, doing well at the 250s and the 500s events.

      I think the problem with Medvedev is that he’s a bit one dimensional, preferring to grind from behind the baseline. I’ve watched his matches often and he tends to win matches through grinding, even though he does have a big serve to help him. If he can add in more dimensions to his game, he will become very hard to beat.

      Fed also had a hard time beating him at Shanghai last year; it’s not like Fed has been beating him easily.

        • I’ll give Medvedev a 20 to 25% chances vs Fed, and Djoko. He’s 1-3 vs Djoko now and 0-3 vs Fed; he may win his next match vs Fed! Medvedev also had his problems when facing Djoko, and that’s why he’s losing to Djoko three straight times and it takes a subpar Djoko for Medvedev to get a hard fought win.

        • Djoko could too, with his drop shots, and he had Medvedev scrambling to the net, but because of Med’s deep position behind the baseline, was often too late to return the shot; even if he could, it’s often not a good return and Djoko could even lob him or pass him at the net. Djoko caught him a few times during the match, esp in set two, but Djoko was again playing poorly in set three when Medvedev raised his level.

          I notice too that Medvedev has the habit of camping at his BH corner so often, and Djoko hitting his DTL shots after a few CC exchanges often would catch Medvedev by surprise.

          Medvedev problem is that he’s playing from way behind the baseline and isn’t able to shorten points hence he’s always getting into long rallies. Unless he has the fitness of the big four, he’s not going to last playing that way throughout his career. He has to add in new elements into his game, like learning to move forward into the court more often and wins points there.

  5. Very surprising to see Novak lose like this today. I thought he was picking it up, but all credit to Medvedev, who at his best can trouble anyone, it seems. He has definitely become more consistent, and he’s doing a much better job at keeping his emotions in check. Beating two top-10 players in a row, when he’s barely ever done it before, is very impressive. If he’s not completely out of gas, he’s my pick to make the final.

  6. Medvedev has the ability to change his pace at will, just like a Murray; however, he doesn’t have Murray’s varieties and he preferred to play almost always from the baseline, grinding like a Murray. He hits his shots rather flat, just like Simon; Simon is a poorer version of Murray and Simon is already hard to deal with even by the big three.

    I think Medvedev will be better than a peak Simon in time to come; but, I doubt he can be better than Murray.

  7. Interesting how Medvedev has such a winning record over Tsitsi, who plays like Fed .
    Simon is a counterpuncher who hits flat ,but I don’t see why you bring him into this comparison , he’s not got the same physicality /power so less potential .

    • Medvedev hits flat shots like Simon and is often engaged in long rallies like Simon. Both he and Simon are poorer version of Murray; Murray is the master of changing paces and all three of them prefer to play from the baseline and engage in long rallies.

      Medvedev has more weapons than Simon though, with a big serve and big FH but Simon is the master of flat shots; that’s why none of the big three like to play against Simon.

    • Fed is way more experienced than Tsitsipas, I thought that’s pretty obvious? You mean you want to compare Tsitsipas to Fed now, when Fed has >20 years of experience in the tour?

      Maybe Tsitsipas vs Medvedev now is just like Fed vs Murray during 2006-2009, when Murray was having the upper hand.

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