Upsets have been a big part of the Monte-Carlo Masters, and an unseeded quarterfinalist–Guido Pella–is Rafael Nadal’s next opponent on Friday. Borna Coric and Fabio Fognini are also playing for a place in the semis.
Guido Pella vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Through two outings at the Monte-Carlo Masters, it may be fair to start wondering how many sets Nadal is going to lose during this entire clay-court. The number of matches he will lose probably isn’t in much doubt; certainly not more than one or two, no? Well-rested following a month off due to another knee issue, Nadal has been predictably dominant so far in his bid for a 12th Monte-Carlo title. The second-ranked Spaniard destroyed Roberto Bautista Agut 6-1, 6-1 before taking care of Grigor Dimitrov 6-1, 6-4 to reach the quarterfinals.
Up next for Nadal on Friday is a surprising showdown against Pella, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. Bautista Agut clearly knows a thing or two about Nadal’s propensity to serve up breadsticks on clay; Pella does, too. Their most recent encounter came last spring at the French Open, when the eventual champion dominated 6-2, 6-1, 6-1 during second-round action. The two left-handers previously faced each other at the 2017 Indian Wells Masters, which resulted in a 6-3, 6-2 scoreline. Pella is playing the best tennis of his career this season (first-ever title in Sao Paulo plus Monte-Carlo wins over Laslo Djere, Marin Cilic, and Marco Cecchinato), but he won’t have much left in the tank with which to take more than a few games off the King of Clay.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games
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(9) Borna Coric vs. (13) Fabio Fognini
Monte-Carlo can provide a home-court advantage for either Frenchmen or Italians. The French did not do much of anything this week, but Italians are positively lighting a fire under the fans. In addition to Lorenzo Sonego’s unexpected run to the quarterfinals as a qualifier, Fognini is also part of the last eight. The world No. 18 made an incredible comeback to beat Andrey Rublev 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 before ousting third-seeded Alexander Zverev 7-6(6), 6-1 on Thursday (he also got a walkover from Gilles Simon).
This marks the second career contest between Fognini and Coric, with the former prevailing 5-7, 7-6(4), 6-3 in the 2014 Umag quarterfinals. Yes, Coric was an ATP quarterfinal in 2014–when he was all of 17 years old. Fast forward to 2019 and he now finds himself near the top of the game, at 13th in the rankings to be exact. The Croat has been unspectacular so far this season, but he has managed to battle past Hubert Hurkacz, Jaume Munar, and Pierre-Hugues Herbert in Monte-Carlo. Coric’s first two matches were extremely tough. An inspired Fognini has a slight edge in current form; and an inspired Fognini is never fun to play.
Pick: Fognini in 2
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Wow! I’ve never seen anyone win a point from a smash!!
Vamos Rafa!
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Rafa did it the hard way today, not playing his best. He’s in the semis. I do think he will have to pick it up if he wants to win this again for #12!
Nadal takes 2 hours and 20 mins to finish two sets, Djoko finished 3 sets in same length of time. There’re plenty of grinding, not very encouraging and it’s only the beginning of the clay season!
Rafa’s level fluctuates so much even within a match; he was leading 4-1 in the first set against Dimi, yet he allowed Dimi to come back and had a hard time beating Dimi. I think he and Djoko are really getting old and so couldn’t sustain a high level throughout a match; Fed at least still has his great serve to help him out, so he’s still winning at a ripe old age with relatively less grinding.
What a weird tournament! So many upsets and 2 more today. The Djoker goes down — and looks relieved he won’t have to play Rafa in MC. And Rafa *almost* loses a set! And breaks himself while trying to serve out the match! Glad I didn’t watch Rafa’s match. I watched the first game, saw him get broken and decided I wasn’t up for a “heart attack” match today.
At this point nothing will surprise me, including the Foggy One winning the tournament.
Uhmmm, Foggy has not had a great start, but then again, neither did Rafa!!
I think after being so long on tour, the up and comings know now how to play the top 4. They challenge them more now so their wins aren’t as effortless as before. I think it’s that simple.
However, Rafa did play poorly today…his serves, ROS and positioning, esp the latter. But of course, he needed that test bcos it is not going to get any easier!
As for Novak, his ‘off court’ issues continue, sigh!
I am planning on going to Roland Garros this year. I want to see Rafa play on clay court and win tournament before he retires, or get beat, lol!! I’m really looking forward to it, so if anyone here is planning on going plz let me know so perhaps we can hook up.
Mona – I was at Roland Garros when Rafa won his first Roland Garros in 2005 after beating Federer in the semi final! An experience never to be forgotten which turned me into a lifetime Rafa fan.
Whatever you do grab the chance if you can. There may not be many more opportunities
Rafa’s comeback from yet another injury means he will have to work hard to get the victories even on clay because he is no longer young and fast as he used to be. I agree that Fed is a lucky one to have his life savior serve as a bailout.
Rafa will have to try to find his game if he wants to win his next match! I don’t expect miraculous change in his game as I know he will need more time to perfect it. One has to admire his persistence and never give up attitude, though, and how he was able to win the first set!
Although I would love to see Rafa winning as many titles on clay all I really care about is Rafa wins another RG title! The rest only comes as bonus!
Vamos Champ!
I just finished watching the Nadal v Pella match and, like you, ended up admiring Rafa’s on court demeanor more than ever. His patience and persistence are absolutely amazing. I don’t know how he does it.
Rafa wasn’t at his best but we have to recognise that Guido’s game has improved a lot.
What a match this turns out to be!
Oh dear, I had given up on Fogna when I saw how much tape he had on his right arm/elbow and right lower leg/ankle.
It’s never over until it’s all the way done with Fabio though he’s serving for the match. And Borna is a worthy competitor.
haha, yeah, Borna has break points.
Glorious win for Fognini and his fans. How good is FF.
Not going to think about Rafa right now, or Nole. Just have to enjoy this moment. FF into the semi’s at MC 😀
Nadal will win the final, was probably influenced by Djokovic’s uninspired, lethargic performance. Djokovic made me sleep straight after his match.
A couple of good matches. At no point did I think Nadal was going to lose the first set. Pella played great and had two chances for 5-1, in which case I think he would have taken it. Unfortunately, he basically has no serve. But his ground-strokes were fabulous at the start, and he gave Rafa a good test.
If Fognini was healthy I’d give him a decent chance at the upset. As I said earlier, Nadal hasn’t looked 100% comfortable to me, and there’s always a chance his knee could be bothering him. But Fabio may also be injured. If he’s not and he plays his best inspired tennis, he could win, but it’s unlikely.