Monte-Carlo R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Goffin vs. Bautista Agut

Rafael Nadal will continue his bid for an 11th Monte-Carlo title when he takes the court against Karen Khachanov as part of Thursday’s third-round schedule. Fellow Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut, meanwhile, is facing David Goffin.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Karen Khachanov

With Nadal having been sidelined for the entire hard-court swing following the Australian Open, the rest of the ATP Tour was perhaps hoping for a rare opportunity on clay in 2018. After watching him play just three clay-court matches, Nadal’s challengers may be reassessing those hopes. The top-ranked Spaniard crushed both Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev during his country’s Davis Cup quarterfinal defeat of Germany and he made routine 6-1, 6-3 work of Aljaz Bedene during second-round action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Wednesday. With his beatdown of Bedene, Nadal improved to 64-4 lifetime at this tournament as he goes for title No. 11.

Up next for the No. 1 seed on Thursday is a third career contest against Khachanov, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. Nadal prevailed 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(3) last summer at Wimbledon before cruising 6-3, 6-3 a few months later on the hard courts of Beijing. Khachanov earned another shot at his heavily-favored opponent by beating Thanasi Kokkinakis and Gilles Simon in straight sets earlier this week. The 38th-ranked Russian is a solid 14-7 for his 2018 campaign and squarely in contention for French Open seeding. With a healthy Nadal once again in fine form and right at home on his favorite surface, Khachanov’s effort to climb up the rankings will have to be put on hold until Barcelona.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(11) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (6) David Goffin

Goffin and Bautista Agut will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the fourth time at the ATP level when they meet again on Thursday. Bautista Agut has won three of their four previous encounters, but Goffin most recently got the job done 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(3) on the indoor hard courts of Sofia in 2017. The 10th-ranked Belgian may be hard-pressed to pick up another win at Bautista Agut’s expense, because he is without question rusty heading into the Monte-Carlo third round. Goffin suffered a freak eye injury in Rotterdam and played only one hard-court match thereafter, getting blown out by Joao Sousa 6-0, 6-1 in Miami. With a little more recovery time, this week’s No. 6 seed raised his level to defeat an in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas 7-6(4), 7-5 on Tuesday.

Bautista Agut has been wildly up and down this year. The 16th-ranked Spaniard is already the proud owner of two titles (Auckland and Dubai), but lost his opening match at four of his other five events prior to Monte-Carlo–and his second match at the other one (to Borna Coric in Indian Wells). Bautista Agut has managed to avoid an early exit so far in the principality, with straight-set victories over Peter Gojowyczk and Feliciano Lopez. It is clear that the 11th seed can go a long way when he settles in at a tournament, and Goffin certainly remains less than 100 percent despite showing signs of improvement.

Pick: Bautist Agut in 2

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28 Comments on Monte-Carlo R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Goffin vs. Bautista Agut

  1. I haven’t seen either of these guys’ matches at MC. The only thing I would say is that Khachanov is obviously the *kind* of player who can trouble Nadal. I’ve never really seen Karen play the kind of tennis that would be required for more than a few games in a row so it’s obviously unlikely.

    A more interesting question for me in this match is how Nadal’s leg holds up if Khachanov does bring his best game.

    • If Rafa can beat A Zverev easily, he’ll have no problem with Khachanov. A. Zverev > Khachanov on clay. Rafa is too experienced for both.

    • Joe, it seems to me that you’re wishing for Rafa’s legs to break down! Everyone of your post about Rafa was/is doubting how long Rafa would hold up, very negative, and wishful thinking on your part.

      MC is best of three, not best of five, so as long as Rafa finishes his matches quickly, he’ll have no problems.

      • Well, I don’t think you can ignore the last several months, Lucky. Like I said, I haven’t seen Rafa play lately (not even in DC). But I’ve read others say that he seems not to be moving quite as well, and perhaps is favouring his leg. I’m certainly not wishing for him to get hurt, nor even to lose to Khachanov; I’d very much like to see a match-up with Djokovic.

        • Joe, what Rafa not moving well?? If anyone had watched his DC matches (BO5) he would have noticed how well Rafa moved; if not he won’t dispatch AZverev so easily in straight sets losing only 9 games!

          MC clay favors Rafa’s game more than anywhere else except RG; Rafa just about done enough to win easily in 1 hr and 18 mins, losing four games. He didn’t even need to go after every shot to expend energy unnecessarily, when he knew he could win the next or even the next next point to win the game.

  2. Insyaallah Rafa in 2…Kachanov has a big serve & big groundstrokes..but he still can’t match Rafa’s precious gift..mental strength & patience…This factors will set them apart…Maybe Rafa’s aura on clay will get to him too at some point…

    • Rafa’s groundstroke and tennis acumen as well, not to mention Rafa’s speed around the court and his skills in the forecourt. Rafa just has too much for Khachanov, unless Rafa has an off day, he shouldn’t have problem vs Khachanov.

    • That article gave me a “vision” of Rafa playing only on clay after he turns 35, lol! Don’t think it’s gonna happen, but I wonder just how many RG’s he could win. There’s a YouTube vid out there that shows Nico Almagro losing to young Rafa at RG and exclaiming, “He’s gonna win this 45 times! He’ll be 65 years old and he’ll STILL win it!

      His uncle Miguel Angel, the soccer player, says that your head tells you when you’re done. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see what Rafa’s head says.

    • MA,

      Thanks so much for that! I love hearing from Rafa! He is right about needing more matches. He’s been off for a while and it can take some time for him to get good feelings and rhythm and timing.

      I watched Rafa’s match replay on the tennis channel tonight. From what I could see, he seemed to be moving okay. Bedene wasn’t going to be able tk really challenge him, but he did play well.

      One match at a time!
      😍

      • Nny!…You’re welcome m’lady!…Oh!…i remember some of us suggested that he skipped Wimby because it’s not good for his knees..and he kept been bundled out before QF since 2012…but,this is our Rafa actually…if he’s fit & not injured,then he will play..doesn’t matter if he’s going to lose in 1st,2nd or 4th rd…

        My admiration of him triggered a trillion times after i read this article Nny..it shows that Rafa is a very brave fighter…he’s not afraid of losing..even tho he knew it’s going to hurt him too if he lose early again…

        About his match last nite…yeah!…he seems moving okay..and his body language too very positive..So far so good…

        • MA,

          Yes, I love that Rafa will play even if he could lose early. He still goes to Wimbledon even though he has not advanced far in recent years. I keep finding reasons to love and admire Rafa more and more!

          I actually thought Rafa was moving extremely well in his two DC matches. I thought he seemed comfortable in the court.

          I think it’s the lack of match play which is the issue. As he said himself! I just did not see anything to indicate that he is holding back at all. I think Rafa knew that Bedene could not really hurt him.

          We will see how he does with the raw power of Khachanov.

        • Many moons ago Rafa admitted what drove him on was ‘not so much the desire to win but the fear of losing’. He is deeply competitive but is not interested in the record books (unlike TMF) nor is he particularly bothered by his ranking.

          These are the qualities we Rafans love and admire.

  3. Yay!!! just woke up to see that Goffin beat RBA 😀 Poor Goffin has had some bad luck with freaky injuries. Didnt see the match yet. It was tough picking between RBA and Goffin. RBA hasn’t been his consistent self and figured Goffin had a chance.

  4. Rafa in 2. Khachanov is a big hitter but doesn’t have anything to that Rafa can’t handle – easily, I daresay.

    Djokovic….I don’t know. Thiem probably in 3. Happy to be wrong.

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