Roger Federer is back. This time, maybe it’s for real.
Federer, who was sidelined for all of February by a knee injury, had been scheduled to return last month at the Miami Open. The 34-year-old Swiss practiced for a few days in Miami and appeared to be ready for an opening showdown with Juan Martin Del Potro, but a late illness took Federer out of the tournament. Thus he still has not played since falling to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals.
A loaded Monte-Carlo field features Djokovic, Federer, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and David Ferrer, among many others.
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 3,748,925 Euros
Points: 1000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: Aside from a potential third-round contest against Roberto Bautista Agut, Federer’s draw is a favorable one. The world No. 3 should not have too much trouble getting back into the groove at the expense of either Thomaz Bellucci or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Federer’s nearest top-8 seed is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, when it could have been Nadal, Ferrer, or Tomas Berdych. A more likely quarterfinal adversary for Federer is an in-form Richard Gasquet, who is on course for an all-French tilt with Tsonga in the last 16.
Federer and company are on the same half of the bracket as Djokovic, who has won consecutive Masters 1000 tournaments this season in Indian Wells and Miami. The top-ranked Serb’s section also features a red-hot David Goffin, who reached the semifinals at each of the big events in March. A treacherous trek through the draw for Ferrer could include Alexander Zverev, Goffin, and then Djokovic.
If early-round results play out as expected, no competitor will attract more attention than Nadal—and his opponents. The fifth-seeded Spaniard could kick off his Monte-Carlo campaign against well-documented rival Lukas Rosol. Dominic Thiem, who has been one the best players on tour this season, in on a collision course with Nadal for the third round. Wawrinka also finds himself in this section, but the Swiss slumped through Indian Wells and Miami and his difficult eighth of the bracket is also home to Gilles Simon, Grigor Dimitrov, and current Marrakech finalist Borna Coric.
Like Wawrinka, Murray could really use a successful showing this week following disappointments at the March Masters 1000s. The second-ranked Scot dropped his second match at each tournament, first to Federico Delbonis and then to Dimitrov. Fortunately for Murray, he has arguably the best draw of anyone in the Monte-Carlo field. He should coast into the last eight before going up against the winner of a likely showdown between Berdych and Raonic.
First-round upset alerts: Inigo Cervantes over (16) Benoit Paire. Is there any performer on the ATP Tour more mercurial than Paire? Maybe Ernests Gulbis; but that’s it. Paire caught fire late last summer and at times in the fall, but this season has been a disaster since he started with a semifinal finish in Chennai. The Frenchman is 1-5 in his last six matches. As for Cervantes, the 56th-ranked Spaniard owns seven of his 11 career ATP-level match wins in 2016.
Paolo Lorenzi over Fabio Fognini. Quite frankly, no other seed should have any real difficulty in the opening round. In terms of ranking, however, Lorenzi (No. 53) beating Fognini (No. 32) would constitute an upset. Fognini is sweeping this head-to-head series with his fellow Italian 4-0, but he has not played since the Rio Open in mid-February because of an abdominal injury. Lorenzi is a decent 8-8 on the season and all eight of his victories have come on clay.
(WC) Lucas Pouille over Nicolas Mahut. This is another all-unseeded showdown between compatriots that could go in favor of the lower-ranked player. At 34 years old, Mahut has been outstanding in both singles and doubles this season. But his game is better-suited for grass or a fast indoor hard court. Twelve years his fellow Frenchman’s junior, Pouille is coming off a fourth-round performance in Miami.
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut, Federico Delbonis, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Kuznetsov, Lucas Pouille, Guido Pella, Borna Coric
Cold: Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Benoit Paire, Fabio Fognini, Andrey Rublev, Jeremy Chardy, Ivo Karlovic
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer, Roger Federer over Richard Gasquet, Rafael Nadal over Stan Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic over Andy Murray
Semifinals: Djokovic over Federer and Nadal over Raonic
Final: Djokovic over Nadal
[polldaddy poll=9380236]
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
who ya got?
Same as Ricky. Except one QF – Andy over Berdych. Guessing Milos won’t make it that far. Semi’s: Nole over Fed and Rafa over Andy.
Picked Nole ftw; but I wouldn’t rule out Rafa not winning MC again. Expecting a good final!
Oops. A double negative. Should say – wouldn’t rule out Rafa winning MC.
Novak does not look like he will be defeated by any player right now – especially the big four as all of them are not in form right now or are coming back from an injury.
The title is surely Novak’s unless a player who has the home crowd with him can cause an upset such as Gael or gasquet or Tsonga.
Nah…too soon for Nadal. Andy will beat him. Alas, the final is set in stone…and we all know who will win.
And who is that?
B
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer, Roger Federer over Jo Wilfred Tsonga, Stan Wawrinka over Dominic Thiem, and Andy Murray over Milos Raonic.
Semifinals: Djokovic over Federer and Thiem over Murray
Final: Djokovic over Thiem
Correction: Thiem over Wawrinka
Quarters: Djokovic over Ferrer, Tsonga over Agut, Wawrinka over Thiem, Murray over Berdych
Semis: Djokovic over Tsgona, Wawrinka over Murray
Finals: Djokovic over Wawrinka
Wawa isn’t beating Thiem
Too bad Isner, Nishikori, and Kyrgios aren’t playing. Anderson too but he’s injured still I guess. Looks like we’ve got a Fed vs Nole semifinal in store at the top half. Bottom half (especially third quarter) is very intriguing. I say Thiem, Stan, or Rafa gets out of the third quarter for sure. And I would say one of those three makes final from bottom half. I don’t think Murray will make it too far. Losses early in IW and Miami give me no reason to think he will do well here in MC.
A loaded Monte-Carlo field features Djokovic, Federer, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and David Ferrer, among many others.
Ferrer? Seriously? Over Rafa? Typo perhaps? Then you have him making the final. I say Thiem takes him out.
Novak will win. I think you are giving too much credit to Federer, he’s still coming off an injury. Nadal not playing well. maybe Thiem? Ferrer is struggling and Milos is too robotic to slide on clay. Doesn’t leave a lot of choices.
Novak will not win. ???
MC Picks:
QF-
Djoker over Goffin
Fed over Gasquet
Thiem over Dimitrov
Murray over Milos
SF-
Fed over Nole
Thiem over Murray
Final-
Fed over Thiem
(I’m a huge fed fan so I gotta go with Roger but if I was betting money on this I might change my mind and go Nole over Roger and Thiem. But these picks are of course not for money so I’m going with my guy. I just hope he can take down Novak for the first time in what seems like forever even if it’s only been since November last year that he beat Novak. Allez Roger!!)
It wouldn’t make any difference if Isner is playing…he’s not one of the top players.
I wouldn’t count out Murray. He did well on the clay last year. He is due for a good result. With a favorable draw, I can see him getting to the semis and maybe even the final.
On paper it should be Novak and Fed in the semis. But we will have to see how Fed looks in his first tournament back from injury.
I don’t know what to expect from Rafa here. Stan hasn’t looked good lately, but I just don’t know if Rafa can capitalize. I can see him getting to the quarters and even semis if he can get himself going.
Everyone is so high on Thiem these days, but I am not ready to pick him for the quarters or semis.
Rosol loses to Bedene – 62 63
Had a feeling Bedene would win. On hard or grass I probably would’ve picked Rosol though.
Thank God for small favors.
For obvious reasons I’m always pleased to see Rissole put in his place 🙂
He has been an unforgettable hero of AntiRafaPeople.
Verdal wins 4 and 2.
Rafa/Fer win their doubles match 64 62.
Vamos Rafa & Nando!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CfxJ54zWQAEesJA.jpg
Wow! Thiem thucks ATM.
Getting a real struffing out there, to be honest, obviously.
6-1 Struff.
Thiem’s to be a health issue.
Plantar fasiitis is suspected. TC showed clips of him in practice this morning getting his foot worked on and doing specific stretches. If it’s bad (like I had!) it’s not a great idea to try to play through it — but it looks like that’s what he’s doing.
Wow. That’s too bad.
Could ruin what would have been a very intriguing clay season for him, not to mention tennis fans.
I had plantar fasciitis about sixteen years ago. It was extremely painful and physical therapy helped, but it took a while to heal. I also had to wear orthotics in my exercise shoes.
Whoa!! I thought maybe struff could make this interesting as he is a dangerous player but I did not see this coming. This would really help out Rafa and Stan’s chances of getting out of the quarter if Thiem lost here.
“Wawrinka also finds himself in this section, but the Swiss slumped through Indian Wells and Miami”
Like he does every year you mean?
Thiems he’s back. Up a break in the 2nd.
Tiggy Picks:
Semifinals: Djokovic d. Tsonga; Wawrinka d. Murray
Final: Djokovic d. Wawrinka
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2016/04/starting-their-engi/58094/#.VwukVaQrKUk
Thiem on the comeback trail. Hope the foot issue isn’t serious. That would suck if he was out for the clay swing.