Monte-Carlo Masters previews and predictions

Roger Federer is back. This time, maybe it’s for real.

Federer, who was sidelined for all of February by a knee injury, had been scheduled to return last month at the Miami Open. The 34-year-old Swiss practiced for a few days in Miami and appeared to be ready for an opening showdown with Juan Martin Del Potro, but a late illness took Federer out of the tournament. Thus he still has not played since falling to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals.

A loaded Monte-Carlo field features Djokovic, Federer, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and David Ferrer, among many others.

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 3,748,925 Euros
Points: 1000

Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: Aside from a potential third-round contest against Roberto Bautista Agut, Federer’s draw is a favorable one. The world No. 3 should not have too much trouble getting back into the groove at the expense of either Thomaz Bellucci or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Federer’s nearest top-8 seed is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, when it could have been Nadal, Ferrer, or Tomas Berdych. A more likely quarterfinal adversary for Federer is an in-form Richard Gasquet, who is on course for an all-French tilt with Tsonga in the last 16.

Federer and company are on the same half of the bracket as Djokovic, who has won consecutive Masters 1000 tournaments this season in Indian Wells and Miami. The top-ranked Serb’s section also features a red-hot David Goffin, who reached the semifinals at each of the big events in March. A treacherous trek through the draw for Ferrer could include Alexander Zverev, Goffin, and then Djokovic.

If early-round results play out as expected, no competitor will attract more attention than Nadal—and his opponents. The fifth-seeded Spaniard could kick off his Monte-Carlo campaign against well-documented rival Lukas Rosol. Dominic Thiem, who has been one the best players on tour this season, in on a collision course with Nadal for the third round. Wawrinka also finds himself in this section, but the Swiss slumped through Indian Wells and Miami and his difficult eighth of the bracket is also home to Gilles Simon, Grigor Dimitrov, and current Marrakech finalist Borna Coric.

Like Wawrinka, Murray could really use a successful showing this week following disappointments at the March Masters 1000s. The second-ranked Scot dropped his second match at each tournament, first to Federico Delbonis and then to Dimitrov. Fortunately for Murray, he has arguably the best draw of anyone in the Monte-Carlo field. He should coast into the last eight before going up against the winner of a likely showdown between Berdych and Raonic.

First-round upset alerts: Inigo Cervantes over (16) Benoit Paire. Is there any performer on the ATP Tour more mercurial than Paire? Maybe Ernests Gulbis; but that’s it. Paire caught fire late last summer and at times in the fall, but this season has been a disaster since he started with a semifinal finish in Chennai. The Frenchman is 1-5 in his last six matches. As for Cervantes, the 56^th-ranked Spaniard owns seven of his 11 career ATP-level match wins in 2016.

Paolo Lorenzi over Fabio Fognini. Quite frankly, no other seed should have any real difficulty in the opening round. In terms of ranking, however, Lorenzi (No. 53) beating Fognini (No. 32) would constitute an upset. Fognini is sweeping this head-to-head series with his fellow Italian 4-0, but he has not played since the Rio Open in mid-February because of an abdominal injury. Lorenzi is a decent 8-8 on the season and all eight of his victories have come on clay.

(WC) Lucas Pouille over Nicolas Mahut. This is another all-unseeded showdown between compatriots that could go in favor of the lower-ranked player. At 34 years old, Mahut has been outstanding in both singles and doubles this season. But his game is better-suited for grass or a fast indoor hard court. Twelve years his fellow Frenchman’s junior, Pouille is coming off a fourth-round performance in Miami.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista Agut, Federico Delbonis, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Kuznetsov, Lucas Pouille, Guido Pella, Borna Coric

Cold: Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Benoit Paire, Fabio Fognini, Andrey Rublev, Jeremy Chardy, Ivo Karlovic

Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over David Ferrer, Roger Federer over Richard Gasquet, Rafael Nadal over Stan Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic over Andy Murray

Semifinals: Djokovic over Federer and Nadal over Raonic

Final: Djokovic over Nadal

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!