Monte-Carlo Masters previews and picks

Now the clay-court fun really begins.

After relatively nondescript events in Casablanca and Houston, the first of three Masters 1000s on the slow stuff is on the menu this week in Monte-Carlo. It may not be a required tournament, but the three biggest names in the world are in the field with Roger Federer having signed up for the first time since 2011. He joins Rafael and Novak Djokovic, who combine to own the last nine Monte-Carlo titles. Of course, eight of those belong to Nadal. Djokovic at long last in the defending champion, having ended Nadal’s reign in last year’s final.

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 2,884,675 Euros
Points: 1000

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic

Draw analysis: Federer’s first trip to Monte-Carlo in three years should get off to a fine start. The Swiss will open with either Radek Stepanek or Ivo Karlovic and his nearest seed is a slumping Jerzy Janowicz. The other first-round bye recipient in that section of the draw is a desperately out-of-form Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is really the No. 9 seed but replaced fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet following a withdrawal due to a back injury. A more likely quarterfinal opponent for Federer is dangerous clay-courter Fabio Fognini. The Italian, however, generally lacks any kind of belief against the top players (no, beating Andy Murray on clay in Italy does not qualify).

Djokovic, in the same half as Federer, is in a section loaded with talented players who for various reasons probably won’t be able to seriously test the No. 2 seed. Ernests Gulbis’ problem is that he is already out of the tournament, having lost to Alexandr Dolgopolov on Sunday. Dolgopolov and Berdych are dangerous, but they would have to face each other in the third round before either one could meet Djokovic. Nearer to the Serb are Kevin Anderson and Gael Monfils, who are set for a first-round showdown. Anderson was playing well until Casablanca, where his relative lack of clay-court prowess showed. Monfils, as usual, is nowhere near 100 percent physically.

Nadal’s draws are basically of no importance on clay. There can be no such things a bad one unless Djokovic somehow fell out of the No. 2 ranking and landed in Nadal’s half. That won’t happen anytime soon, so for now the top-ranked player in the world should continue to cruise into clay-court finals. His path could feature Gilles Simon in round two, Andreas Seppi in the third round, David Ferrer or Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, and Stanislas Wawrinka in the semis. It’s hard to imagine Nadal dropping even a set along the way.

A routine road is not, however, what awaits Wawrinka. Both of the Houston finalists—winner Fernando Verdasco and runner-up Nicolas Almagro—are in Wawrinka’s eighth of the bracket. Verdasco has to make a quick turnaround and open with a red-hot Marin Cilic, so either way the third-ranked Swiss is going to have a tough test of his hands. A much weaker other side of the section should see either Milos Raonic or Tommy Robredo through to the quarterfinals.

First-round upset alerts: Andreas Seppi over (13) Mikhail Youzhny – Youzhny’s problems in 2014 can be chalked up to poor health and poor play. With Seppi, it’s just poor play. Advantage: Seppi. Youzhny, however, leads the head-to-head series 4-0—so a win for the Italian is by no means a sure thing. But on clay, it is a likelihood.

Gael Monfils over (14) Kevin Anderson – When healthy and playing well, Monfils would be an obvious favorite over Anderson on clay. That isn’t the case right now, which is why a Monfils win would have to be considered a slight upset. But it could happen. Anderson’s movement is particularly poor on the red stuff and he lost his Casablanca opener as the No. 1 seed to Victor Hanescu.

Michael Llodra over (16) Jerzy Janowicz – Clay is Llodra’s worst surface, but it also does not help Janowicz. The Frenchman at least came through qualifying, so he should be feeling somewhat comfortable. Janowicz, on the other hand, has lost five matches in a row. The Pole has not found the winner’s circle since Rotterdam back in February.

Hot: Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic, Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Marcel Granollers, Marin Cilic, Federico Delbonis, Yen-Hsun Lu, Fernando Verdasco, Roberto Bautista Agut, Joao Sousa, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Cold: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jerzy Janowicz, Mikhail Youzhny, Gilles Simon, Andreas Seppi, Jurgen Melzer, Simone Bolelli, Vasek Pospisil, Gael Monfils, Ivan Dodig

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro over Milos Raonic, Roger Federer over Fabio Fognini, and Novak Djokovic over Tomas Berdych

Semifinals: Nadal over Almagro and Djokovic over Federer

Final: Nadal over Djokovic

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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