Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Monfils

Rafael Nadal will be aiming for a ninth Monte-Carlo title when he takes the court on Sunday. Standing in Nadal’s way is Gael Monfils, who has not dropped a set or even been pushed to a tiebreaker in the entire tournament.

Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers when they collide in the final of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 11-2, including 4-0 on clay. Each of Monfils’ two victories has come in Doha, where he prevailed in 2009 and 2012. Outside of Doha, Nadal is 10-0 against Monfils and 22-1 in total sets. They most recently faced each other on the grass courts of Stuttgart in 2015, when the Spaniard came out on top of a semifinal showdown 6-3, 6-4. Their only previous Monte-Carlo encounter marked their first-ever meeting, which Nadal won 6-3, 6-2.

Looking for his ninth title at this event and first since 2012, Nadal is in the midst of what has been his best week of 2016. The world No. 5 took care of Aljaz Bedene, Dominic Thiem, and Stan Wawrinka in straight sets before overcoming Andy Murray 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 on Saturday.

“It’s a very important week for me, being in a final here again in Monte-Carlo (and) winning against very tough opponents,” Nadal commented. “That’s a lot of great confidence; good news for me.”

Monfils has enjoyed plenty of good news during his trek through the draw. Once in a quarter featuring both Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer, the Frenchman saw the path clear when Ferrer withdrew and Djokovic lost his opener to Jiri Vesely. Monfils has not dropped a set and has not even played a tiebreaker in victories over Gilles Muller, Paolo Lorenzi, Vesely, Marcel Granollers, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Monfils is 20-5 for the year and will climb to No. 2 in the race to London if he lifts the Monte-Carlo trophy.
Monfils
“The basis of my game is to be aggressive from the baseline and not step back,” Monfils said of his tactics against Nadal. “It’s going to be a physical combat. I saw a few rallies between Nadal and Murray. These were huge rallies on clay with deep shots, and I will need to play well if I want to win. To beat him I need to take many risks, and I need to have some luck.”

Even though this looks like a smarter, more controlled, and more motivated Monfils, the odds are still obviously stacked against him in this one–and not just because of his past futility against Nadal. The world No. 16 is a horrendous 5-18 lifetime in ATP finals and all five of his titles have come at the 250-point level. Monfils has the right idea when he talks about being aggressive against Nadal, but he has always found executing such a plan to be extremely difficult.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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53 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Monfils

  1. So glad I stayed to watch the third set and saw Rafa demolish Monfils. But it was a crummy final when all is said and done. I think Monf should be penalised for malfunctioning gear – and only be allowed to retie his shoe laces once during each game. He takes liberties to give himself time to recover between points.

  2. Congrats Rafa

    Congrats Rafans

    We have been waiting for this since 18 months and as always Montecarlo comes to Rafas defence. 2010 it was MC, 2012 it was MC where Rafa stopped losing streak against Novak. 2013 though he lost he knew he had to improve just a bit to catch Novaks level.

    2016 what next ? Hope this is the springboard for Rafa.

    Contrary to some opinions here I don’t want Rafa to face Novak till RG . Let him face in final there. Novak smells blood when he sees Rafa and will do anything to puncture his confidence.

    Well done Rafa.

    Pls excuse him the nerves of 2nd. It was bound to happen when you have not won a big title in a very long time.

    • It is kind of inevitable they will face each other at least once before RG…

      Let’s be prepared. I am not afraid of Novak on clay esp if Rafa continues this and wins Barcelona. Will favor Novak in BO3 until rafa proves otherwise….but, this is a great moment! Rafa has made the first real stride…REAL stride.

      He will crush the field in Barcelona…

      His serve needs improvement but it is so much easier to work on improvements once you have the calmness in your heads. This title will calm him..

      • I’m not afraid of Nole.

        I’m afraid of Rafa.

        He won’t get away with those remaining inconsistencies against Nole. Way way too many service breaks and UEs when he was tight. And failing to consolidate three times including serving for the first set was painful to witness.

        But he’s finally starting to look so much better more often this week than in the past.

      • Rafa can’t face Novak in the final at RG unless he is not in his half of the draw.

        Does anyone know if Rafa has a shot to get to #4 before RG?

      • As much as I am so excited about Rafa’s win here today I really cant look too far ahead. I think for me it has got to be one title at a time as Rafa has broken my heart several times over these past 18 mths. I will only cheer when he actually wins. I have no expectations going forward. But Vamos, Rafa!!!

  3. Canadian coverage not showing trophy presentation. And live streams stopped. Amazing. I might have to renew my TennisTV subscription just to see this as it probably won’t go on youtube either.

    WAY TO GO RAFA!!!!

    (wasn’t pretty)

    • In the states they only showed a brief clip of Rafa holding the trophy and playing the Spanish national anthem, then they went back to fed cup.

      I am officially furious at the tennis channel for not staying with the trophy ceremony.

  4. Mike w APRIL 16, 2016 AT 12:29 PM
    Picking Rafa again on this site looooooool..always picking with ur heart and not ur head on this site when it comes to nadal……face it he’s not good anymore, just accept it
    ***********************************************
    You were saying? 🙂

  5. What a bad way to end it from Gael. Talk about a weak finish. Errors after errors this set couple with Rafa stepping his game up a bit = Nadal wins. Match point Rafa. After such an intense two sets Monfils just couldn’t do anything in the final set. Rafa wins. Bad third set from Gael but Rafa upped his level and intensity so he deserved to win of course. Congrats to Rafa. Edging closer to stealing Stan’s spot in the top four. Stanimal will have to do well at the upcoming events to keep his lead over Rafa heading into the FO. If not he could get someone like Novak in the QF. Stan probably needs the four seed more than Rafa but Rafa will probably get it before RG. Reason Stan needs it more is cuz Rafa is gonna make run no matter what seed he is. Then again he could run into Nole in QF too so basically they’ll both be looking for four seed but Nadal will probably get it. Gosh I’m still sad Monfils couldn’t clinch a spot in top 10. Still rose two spots to 14 but it could’ve been 6. Btw I like Rafa I just wanted Monfils to crack top 10 and get a first masters title. Anyways fantastic week for Rafa and Monfils. Gael continuing his fantastic season up to 20-6 and Rafa gaining some clay court momentum up to 17-6 on the season.

    • Gael ran out of steam though and as usual the king of clay had more energy and totally deserved it. I was just a bid sad that the last set was so anticlimactic. Nice celebration from Rafa. This was a big week for him. He should be able to win Barcelona now.

  6. Pau Ferragut Retweeted
    Rafael Plaza ‏@Rafael_Plaza 27m27 minutes ago Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, France View translation
    Monfils está muerto, usando la raqueta como bastón. Nadal también. ¿La diferencia? El mallorquín es el rey del sufrimiento. Hoy y siempre.
    Monfils is dead, using the racket as a cane. Nadal also. The difference? The Mallorcan is the King of the suffering. Today and always.

  7. I like Monfils so I’m glad he came 2nd although I would have preferred Rafa to take the scalps of Stan, Andy and Fed in the process.

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