Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Monfils

Rafael Nadal will be aiming for a ninth Monte-Carlo title when he takes the court on Sunday. Standing in Nadal’s way is Gael Monfils, who has not dropped a set or even been pushed to a tiebreaker in the entire tournament.

Rafael Nadal and Gael Monfils will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers when they collide in the final of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Sunday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 11-2, including 4-0 on clay. Each of Monfils’ two victories has come in Doha, where he prevailed in 2009 and 2012. Outside of Doha, Nadal is 10-0 against Monfils and 22-1 in total sets. They most recently faced each other on the grass courts of Stuttgart in 2015, when the Spaniard came out on top of a semifinal showdown 6-3, 6-4. Their only previous Monte-Carlo encounter marked their first-ever meeting, which Nadal won 6-3, 6-2.

Looking for his ninth title at this event and first since 2012, Nadal is in the midst of what has been his best week of 2016. The world No. 5 took care of Aljaz Bedene, Dominic Thiem, and Stan Wawrinka in straight sets before overcoming Andy Murray 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 on Saturday.

“It’s a very important week for me, being in a final here again in Monte-Carlo (and) winning against very tough opponents,” Nadal commented. “That’s a lot of great confidence; good news for me.”

Monfils has enjoyed plenty of good news during his trek through the draw. Once in a quarter featuring both Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer, the Frenchman saw the path clear when Ferrer withdrew and Djokovic lost his opener to Jiri Vesely. Monfils has not dropped a set and has not even played a tiebreaker in victories over Gilles Muller, Paolo Lorenzi, Vesely, Marcel Granollers, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Monfils is 20-5 for the year and will climb to No. 2 in the race to London if he lifts the Monte-Carlo trophy.

“The basis of my game is to be aggressive from the baseline and not step back,” Monfils said of his tactics against Nadal. “It’s going to be a physical combat. I saw a few rallies between Nadal and Murray. These were huge rallies on clay with deep shots, and I will need to play well if I want to win. To beat him I need to take many risks, and I need to have some luck.”

Even though this looks like a smarter, more controlled, and more motivated Monfils, the odds are still obviously stacked against him in this one–and not just because of his past futility against Nadal. The world No. 16 is a horrendous 5-18 lifetime in ATP finals and all five of his titles have come at the 250-point level. Monfils has the right idea when he talks about being aggressive against Nadal, but he has always found executing such a plan to be extremely difficult.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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