Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

Fed presser 1It will be an all-Swiss final on Sunday in Monte-Carlo, with Stanislas Wawrinka going up against Roger Federer. Both men are looking for their first title at the event.

Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters title on Sunday afternoon.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, with a 3-1 mark on clay. Interestingly, however, Wawrinka’s lone victory over his fellow Swiss came at this same Monte-Carlo event (via a 6-4, 7-5 decision in the 2009 third round). They have faced each other only once since 2012 and on no occasions since last year’s Indian Wells Masters, where Federer prevailed in three sets.

The 2014 campaign has been kind to both men, with Wawrinka posting the most impressive results of his career and Federer enjoying a resurgence following a disappointing 2012. Wawrinka is 19-3 for the season with his first Grand Slam triumph at the Australian Open in addition to a winner’s trophy in Chennai. Federer’s 28-4 mark includes a title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in Indian Wells.

Wawrinka did not drop a set en route to the Monte-Carlo final, taking out Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer–who had upset Rafael Nadal in Friday’s quarterfinals. The world No. 3 also got a walkover past Nicolas Almagro in the third round. Federer survived one stumbling block against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whom the No. 4 seed defeated 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-1 after being two points from defeat in the second set. That came in between straight-set scalps of Radek Stepanek, Lukas Rosol, and defending champion Novak Djokovic–who was struggling with a wrist injury.

This may not be a rout because Wawrinka is in great form, is well-rested, and clay gives him his best chance against Federer. Given his past futility, however, Wawrinka has to have a mental block against his favored countryman and that should help Federer regain the status of being Switzerland’s No. 1 player. That, too, is on the line in this one.

Pick: Federer in 3

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325 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Federer

    • I must say, Stan played with confidence yesterday. The way he was running and hoping around the court. I couldn’t help contrast that with Rafa’s slumped shoulders during his match against Ferru.

  1. Fed in straights…no way Wawa takes a set from Fed unless Fed suddenly decides to stay longer on the court just for the fun of it..

  2. Roger should be exceptionally motivated for this. He’s in a clay final where he isn’t facing Rafa. This will probably be his last opportunity to win Monte Carlo and he’ll want to take full advantage of that. He’ll be fully confident against Stan, regardless of whether Stan’s playing either well or poorly. On the other hand, Stan is also playing with confidence, but that may change once he’s on court and sees his superior countryman on the other side of the net. I do think it will be quite competitive, possibly straight sets for Roger, but more than likely 3.

  3. jpacnw,

    Well said! I agree with your thoughts. Fed knows that chances like this don’t come along that often during clay season. He’s got an opportunity to gain 1000 points and get the #3 ranking. He has the lopsided h2h with Stan that gives him so much confidence when he plays him.

    Can Stan do what he did against Novak? I don’t think so. He had been knocking on the door in previous match when he pushed Novak. But we don’t have any evidence that he has challenged Fed. Belief is so important in these matches.

    I guess we are going to see if this time, Stan is ready to give it his best and play like he has a chance of winning. I already made my prediction. I agree with you about the match being competitive and going three sets.

  4. I saw the way Fed played against Tsonga……..he was on the ropes, Tsonga exposed some weaknesses and I think if Stan keeps the pressure on he will beat Roger in three sets. Stan will Come out firing like he did with Ferrer but if he let’s patriotism get to him he WILL lose, if he says sod it, he will win! my pick, Stan in three, won’t be surprised if he wins in straights coz I have not been impressed with Fed in this tourney!

    • Mona,

      I like your pick! Going against the grain. I got burned when I didn’t go with my gut instinct and pick Stan to win over Ferrer. I didn’t see much of the match with Fed and Tsonga. It’s possible that Fed just got really lucky with Novak’s injury.

      It would really be something if Stan was finally able to beat his fellow Swiss.

  5. I still think Fed will find the way to win but, like Mona says, it would not surprise me if Stan upsets the applecart.

  6. Stan has always had an inferiority complex whenever Fed is on the other side of the net – subtly nurtured by Federer I might add. However, tennis history is littered with lop-sided H2Hs when the underdog has unexpectedly prevailed. This afternoon could be just such an occasion and will be decided by who can control their nerves the best.

  7. On this form, Stan can certainly win a physical contest, but can he win a mental one?
    Oh lol, now RITB will accuse me of putting Stan in a psychiatric ward too …;)
    BUT, beyond a certain level of skill of course, tennis really is “between the ears.”
    And as a long term member of the Andy Murray fan club, I know this to truth…;)

  8. When Rafa went out and Fed came out to play immediately after I knew Fed would do everything in his power to get to the final and win. He will win even if it means challenging (wrongly) each and every one of Stan’s shots and intimidating him with a swear word or two….

  9. Good one, Khols:

    RT @Kohlscribbler :Since when do they play the Suisse National Tennis Championships in Monte Carlo? @stanwawrinka vs. @rogerfederer
    #OneHandedBackhandsRule”

  10. I feel it’s a toss up between the 2. Both have almost equal chance of winning it. Maybe say I’m tilted 55:45 in favour of Fed.

    • Cmon Abhi you know Roger will win it :-). Hs not injured like Rafa was in the AO final for Stan to pull off a victory in a Masters or GS final against the Big 4. And Roger has never won this tourney, hes taking it home

      • But Stan is playing really well. I know that Fed has that extra motivation and I too want him to win this trophy that is missing from his cabinet. He will need to take a fast start here. If he gives any time for Wawa to settle early in the 1st set he could end up in a lot of trouble. As for not winning a final, there’s always a 1st time.
        Wawa seems to have come a long way and maybe he will be under more pressure to prove that he has improved mentally.
        I feel it’s gonna be a tough bout.

  11. Watching first 2 games..it is very clear Stan will not do much damage today either with his BH or FH..hes already missing

  12. RT @TennisTV : “Severin Lüthi, coach for both players, sitting in @rogerfederer’s box today and @stanwawrinka was fine with that pic.twitter.com/o1bcqKai1a”

    As if Wawa was going to kick up a fuss…….

    #Who’sTheBoss

  13. I have lost time of the number of times the commies have mentioned Rafa’s loss to Stan in OZ. I have tweeted them to ask them to talk about the math instead. They keep ignoring the fact that Rafa was injured in OZ.

    • ^^A respite for me then, I’m watching the final on Bein Sport TV…..Arabic commentary!

      Fed breaks……….Wawa is a joke.

  14. Fed donating errors and Stan even worse…………Rafa has a lot of ‘splaining to do. How can he let us suffer this?

  15. RT @bgtennisnation: : “Fedfan strikes 1st with the Break he looks very relaxed today, no Rafa to deal with on this final of MC”

  16. Where is the Wawa who came up against Milos and Ferrer? He is spraying so many errors

    Fed is not playing well either..Its just who is making more UE..I think they have made 27 between them already in 1st set

  17. I got the first set right 6-4.

    Stan being Stan.

    6-2 in the second.

    I hear Stan has a tryout for the Washington Generals.

    #YoureWelcome

  18. RT @bgtennisnation: “Convertible 1st set for Fedfan with a win today he can move back to 3rd in rankings and 1st in race points to London”

  19. I’ve heard it all. Mark Petchey has just said that Stan is better on clay than Roger. Roger’s brought Sir Shankalot with him, sadly.

  20. RT @NeilHarmanTimes : “First fist pump from Stan. He does it very reluctantly against Roger. It works though. A 2-0 lead in second set.”

    See, everybody knows Stan defers to Fed on court…………

    #Poodle

    • Martina Hingis could beat Roger if she wore a Rafa mask.

      Both are pants, except for a couple of brilliant shots from Roger.

    • I guess he’s figured the only way to make this final exciting is to turn the court into a swamp.

      #DjokoJukeBoxRequest

  21. Fed is the same player he always was. Remember he won Wimby less than two years ago.

    Difference this year is his back is better and the Top 3 are all in a relative state of funk which has for now recreated a weak state.

    Roger must be feeling quite at home.

    If Rafa doesn’t find his good feelings, Roger for his second career slam.

    • ^^shows the quality of the match. Roger’s not looking invincible and yet he is winning comfortably………I think we will have a TB in the 2nd.

  22. I’ll cleared all engagements for today thinking I’d be watching the King of Clay, now I’m left with a yawn of a match. Serves me right.

    • Combined with other some other improvements ,he is close to becoming no.3 and no.1 in the race (assuming he wins this)

      #hopeThisHelps
      #Rickystyle

  23. so what do you guys have to say now? so much for the bending over theory ! lol… he also showed some fire at the end of the set… mat be federer’s dominant head to head record against him was the reason he looked so subdued but his newly found mental strength got him this set..

  24. Delpo does not have a Masters 1000 shield. Should Stan win, he will leapfrog him in the Slam/Masters combo ranks……….

  25. If Stan wins, we can hypothesise that Fed would have been beaten by Rafa since we know Rafa would have beaten Stan if not for that “accident” against Ferru…….

    So hypothetically, Rafa won,
    Technically, he did not.

  26. Roger said when he lost to Stan in MC last time it was because he’d just come back from his honeymoon. What would be his excuse this time?

  27. Wawa wins his first Masters Shield.

    Chapeau, Beefy!

    Quite a journey. Has beaten Rafa, Novak and Fed this year…….not bad.

  28. Calendar slam for Stanimal?

    He couldn’t even celebrate his first Masters?

    Sorry for all of the antijinxings. I just simply cannot get behind Federer.

    Well done Stanford!

  29. Very very happy Stan won. Well deserved. He is the Swiss No 1 after all. Am quiet shocked though that Fed folded instead of Stan.

    I def was not rooting for Fed to win this because he simply cannot win a Masters that has eluded him by not facing Rafa and beating an injured Novak. He should win it fair and square beating the best . He already had his RG trophy not beating Rafa.

    On other hand Rafa had to beat Novak or Fed for every major trophy of his and he has beaten the best on the court to win his slams and Masters.

    And if Rafa had to play 4 Miami finals and not win it still, maybe its poetic justice that Roger too has 4 MC finals and no title

    And all of a sudden the entire pain of Rafa losing has disappeared as neither Novak or Fed won this 🙂

  30. RT @SteveTignor : “Which means it’s time for this stat again: The last man to win the Aussie-French double was Jim Courier in 1992.”

    Chinese Year of the Unknown…………..

  31. I didn’t realize Djoker also has been to 4 Cincy finals and yet to snag one, just like Rafa in Miami and MC for Fed?

    RT @acestroke78: “@bgtennisnation @hbryant42 @darren_cahill MC for Fed (0-4 in finals) just like Miami for Rafa (0-4) or Cincy for Djoker: Mission Impossible!”

    #Serendipity

    • I have to admit when the match started I was just so unimpressed, Stan was just utterly useless and I just could not understand why he was playing like that when he has the tools! It’s a good thing I left for church so I would not have to suffer through this, as I really thought Stan would have donated the match to Roger!

      It’s so amazing how this all turned out, but I insist that this will bode well for Rafa! He needs time to heal mentally and physically and now that he reAlises that he is not alone in the funk, it will help him fix what needs fixing s lot faster and come out playing with a lot more ‘colm’ next tourney.

      The clay court season is just never the same without Rafa, playing well or not!! Just hope that the top four get their acts together, improve thier health, and provide us with a great tennis season. Can’t wait to see Rafa back to his old self, Vamos!!

      Happy Easter to All!!

  32. wow, just wow, did not see this coming…I expected Fed would be motivated enough to beat this Stan but I was obviously wrong…however, deep inside me I felt the danger if Fed was to go to the third set and in that I was right…that’s why I thought Fed should win this in straights…

    Congrats to Wawa! Great win for him indeed. With w/o by Almagro, and tired Ferrer he got Fed in the finals who was already mentally spent after that match with Novak…No, I will never be convinced that Wawa could be anything near the favorite for the RG…

  33. Stan now moves comfortably clear in the Race to London. Now, it will be interesting to see his decision making. Does he go to Portugal to defend his championship there, a 250 tournament? Does he have the stamina to play week in week out and reach the business end of tournaments he enters? What are his priorities?

    These are questions I want answered before I pencil him in as a contender rather than a dark horse in Slams and Masters tournaments.

    If Stan sits out next week (which is possible since he played a full MC, something he has never done recently) and Rafa gets his head back on track and wins in Barca, he will be only 260 points behind Stan in the Race.

    As for Roger, how the hell is he going to win a Slam if he cannot go beyond 2 sets in a match?

    We live in interesting times…………

  34. From Roger’s presser:

    “A big congratulations to Stanford, My fellow countryman and former member of staff. It was the tough match if I may make the honestations. I never quite felt the same after I fell over. Not sure if it was the court conditions or the dizzy faces. But, no excuses. Easter Sunday belongs to Stanford, he is Switzerland’s Easter Bunny.”

  35. Carole Bouchard ‏@carole_bouchard · 12m
    Federer feels it’s time to get some rest. Body feels all the matches played.Still wanna play next M1000.Said Stan raised level and he didn’t

  36. Carole Bouchard ‏@carole_bouchard · 53m
    From Djokovic camp : full rest to be observed for next 7-8 days. Then only, situation to be evaluated again

  37. So Stan did it! Good for Mona for having the courage to predict this win. Stan certainly made it competitive. I guess he really does believe now. This was a big win for him against his compatriot who he has never beaten. Fed lost a golden opportunity here.

    I will check out the match on the replay later today. One by one, Stan is getting first wins against players he has never beaten. Oh and let me be clear. I do NOT count the AO final as a win against Rafa!

    Now we just need Rafa to get it all sorted out and win Barcelona!

      • I don’t count that “win” over Rafa because of the back injury. Rafa couldn’t play. Now I know that it is recorded as a win, but for me there is an asterisk next to it. Now if Stan beats a healthy Rafa, then that’s something else.

        Maybe I should clarify that if he wins fair and square.

    • When the match started I was really disappointed with Stans performance bcos I know he could play much better, so I was happy I had to leave for church so I would not have to watch.

      I just hope that Rafa and the others fix what needs fixing so we get to see a more exciting season and not with one tainted with injuries, mental bruises. I can’t wait to see Rafa back to his old self again, and perhaps this serve him well, I just feel it!

      Happy Easter to you all, watching basket ball in the mean time until I see my Rafa again. Another set of stress though, Heat is trailing in their playoff game, darn! Just can’t seem to get a break!!………lol!!!

  38. So looks like I was the only one who gave stan a decent chance of winning this… Even when Stan lost the first set, I knew it was quite possible for him to win the match… haha

    Good for stan… and now, you guys should abort that ‘bend over’ theory ! haha…

    • ^^^^

      Ha, ha! You weren’t the only one! I said that it would be a competitive match going three sets. I did not think it would go the way of their past matches. Stan seems to now have the belief, even against someone he never beat.

      I am going to see the replay of this match later on the tennis channel. This one I have to see!

      Here Fed had a golden opportunity with no Rafa and still couldn’t capitalize. I want to see how Stan pulled this off.

      Mona did predict that Stan would win! Great call!

      I know that you also believe it would be a real match.

      • oh , now i remember you also said it would be a tough one and will be decided in 3… i did not post here but my head said stan ! federer did waste this opportunity..

        great call mona, must have skipped your post amidst all the ‘bending over ‘ theories..

  39. So Stan did made it tough for Fed and eventually won it. Like I said in my earlier post, the match was pretty even from the beginning and Stan was not gonna fold mentally now.
    Congrats STAN!!
    As I mentioned before AO, Stan has achieved those wins over Fed, Nole and Rafa. Ok, we can question his win against Rafa, but still I feel that he will get another win in this season if they do face each other especially on HC’s. Last season he showed us that he was getting close to beating him but couldn’t handle the pressure points. Maybe now he can play more freely.
    the biggest challenge for him now going forward is to be physically and mentally fit. Can’t afford another lapse here like he had after the AO.

  40. @Sanju
    Maybe now you can understand why I had those worries regarding Fed winning the title against Stan. Stan is not the same guy anymore.

    • Yes now that he has proved us wrong, no more bend over theory. The one who plays better wins it going forth. Winning a Masters final against Fed ould hvae set him free nd relieved him of all the demons

    • @abhirf, seriously are you not worried about the pattern that is being established by Roger of late, running out of steam in 3-setters? Roger does not change his game according to surface, it’s all out attack with him so we cannot say it will be different at Wimby. He can do it at Halle but only if he restricts his matches to 2-sets I think.

      I think Roger’s showing the mileage inn his legs to be honest.

      • @ritb, Well to be honest I’m pretty worried about his inconsistency to last as the match wears on. But that has been his problem from the past 4-5 yrs and it’s only gonna get worse. But I do take heart from his AO showing this year. His game level fluctuates the least on grass courts. Look at his past 4 defeats at Wimbledon. He lost all the matches playing at a constant level. He was neither able to up his level nor did he faded off after starting good. He was not able to come out with the required level each time.
        That’s why I want him to rest but also want him to carry some momentum heading to the Wimby. No need to burnout himself during the clay season. If he can enter Wimbledon playing good tennis he may well end up winning it. If he’s playing well on grass, it’s really difficult to beat him.

      • I agree. I really can’t see Fed winning hard 5 setters any more. And surely players are saying to themselves, “Ok magic tennis for 2 sets, now let’s see.” And giving themselves a fighting chance. He won’t be able to come forward and volley against the top players either. He’ll have to exchange baseline rallies sometimes.

  41. When Stan is in full flight hes a joy to watch. He can smack winners at will and the trio of Rafa, Fed, Nole look quiet helpless when Stan is in his zone. The issue is can he do it consistently over 3 sets because Stan has a high risk game.

    So folks given that Stan and Fed will be likely seeded 3 & 4, whom do u prefer to see Rafa drawing in semi?

      • He can but whats the preference. Who will be tougher? Me thinks Stan can be tougher as he can swing really hard from both sides

      • Question is given San and Fed will be ranked 3 and 4, who is better for Rafa to be drawn into his hlf in slams and Masters and on surfaces – clay,grass, hard

      • @Sanju, given Rafa’s dominance over Fed it goes without saying that Fed will always be an easier opponent for Rafa. There is nothing in Fed’s current game to suggest this situation will change now or going into the future.

        Stan, otoh, has improved his game and his mentality. He beat an injured Rafa the last time they met. I hope he meets a healthy Rafa (both mentally and physically) soon so we can gauge the degree of his improvement. I would still expect Stan to lose, although maybe taking a set off Rafa this time, unlike the situation prior to Oz 2014 when he could not even get a set.

      • @ritb,
        I think Stan will win one encounter this year if they (Rafa & Stan) do face off each other multiple times this season.

      • “@Sanju, given Rafa’s dominance over Fed it goes without saying that Fed will always be an easier opponent for Rafa”

        Waaa Waaa whaaaaaat?

        Fed has a muuuuch better record vs Rafa than Stan. 10-23. Wawa is a lowly 1-12 vs Rafa, his only win when Rafa was obviously injured.

        Either one doesn’t really matter but come on, prior to AO, poor Stan was 0-24 in SETS played against Rafa.

        Tougher matchup?

        Respectfully, no.

    • I dont think Stan is necessarily a lock in future 3-setters with any of the top players he has beaten recently but he has proved he has the stamina to go five sets in the Slams.
      With his new found confidence he may well be the cause of a few upsets this year.

      • I remember a comment by someone prominent celebrity that he had a hard time recalling a sport where the same faces turned up in the latter stages of a tournament as Fed, Rafa, Novak and Muzza had been doing, as a foursome. This is the question, can Stan turn up consistently at the business end of tournaments he enters? In other words, can Stan displace one of the Big 4 to become a bona member of the Big 4 himself?

      • He’s a big, beefy boy too. Am wondering how he’s going to get on if he goes deep into the majors and plays more often.
        That being said, on song he’s gr8 to watch. 🙂

      • This is pure speculation but I have a suspicion it will be his temperament that could prove to be the limiting factor in his progress. He is given to petulance – a deeply unattractive trait in a tennis player – and has already displayed a tendency to prima donna behaviour since he hit the big time. There is also the strange sub-par performance in the DC QFs which was inexplicable.

      • re: RITB@8:16am
        As far as I know there has never been such a protracted period in the Open Era when the same four guys dominated the rankings. The four musketeers have been jousting in or near the top 4 spots for the past six years.

        Food for thought. Rafa and Andy were both able to beat Federer while he was in his prime and they were still in their teens: Nole had just turned twenty when he beat TMF for the first time.

        Good as he has become, I can’t see WaWa (or any other player) gatecrashing that particular party for any length of time in the near future.

    • deucy,

      I think you made some excellent points in your comment @ 12:50 pm! I can see players thinking that Fed won’t be able to keep it up. They won’t be as inclined to give up against him now. The serve and volley isn’t going to work against players who can hit good passing shots.

  42. It’s not about who we prefer Rafa to face in the semis. On clay we shouldn’t have to worry. We all know the h2h with Fed. That speaks for itself. In the past, Rafa has owned Stan on all surfaces. The question now is whether this new Stan can beat him on clay.

  43. I wanted Rafa to meet Stan at MC, unfortunately Rafa did not. I would prefer they meet before RG first and I hope this comes at Rome as Madrid could be a little dicey with the altitude and all. I think Rafa’s in too fragile a state of mind right now for surprises.

    Having said that, I have a hard time accepting Stan could beat Rafa this time. I think Stan has definitely upped his game, the once erratic FH is steadier although still the weaker side. His mentality was impressive yesterday against Fed. Before he would have been expected to fold after going a set down but instead he doubled down and slowly imposed himself on Roger. Very impressive.

    We saw how Rafa failed to up his game when he fell behind against Ferru, quite uncharacteristic. The same happened to Fed yesterday. He failed to respond when Stan upped his game. I am inclined to think Rafa’s lapse was an abherration.

    Barcelona first!

  44. There was a general misapprehension on the part of many people that this was the first time Stan had beaten Fed. I like the symmetry that his only other win against Fed had come at Monte Carlo ’09.

    I had been on the brink of backing Stan for the win but calculated Fed’s years of experience in finals would carry the day. Should have recognised Stan’s clinical SF dispatch of Ferrer did not bode well for Federer who had already been stretched in several matches.

    • I wasn’t convinced Stan’s mentality would stand up to Fed’s intimidating presence. He proved me wrong, and then some.

  45. RT @tuncarayol: “So after winning 4 tournaments his entire career, Wawrinka has won 3 of the 5 tournaments he has entered in 2014.”

    Well done, Wawa. Coach Norman should be proud too. Clearly he has made a difference.

  46. I didn’t realize that Stan beat Fed in the past. I thought that he was never able to beat him. I wonder why Stan wasn’t able to follow up on that win and beat Fed more often.

    There’s definitely been a change in Stan. He now seems to believe. He always had the game and the shots, but now the mental strength seems to be there. The question remains as to whether he can win consistently the way the other top players have done.

  47. I am reading this esp.go.com article and the following statement by Djokovic caught my eye:

    “During his presser, Djokovic said the transition from hard courts to clay could have played a role in his injury. He also mentioned he “started too strong,” meaning he didn’t give himself a chance to properly adjust to the strenuous nature of dirt.”

    http://espn.go.com/blog/espntennis/post/_/id/1220/only-concern-for-djokovic-now-french-open

    So we fans were ooh-ing and aah-ing about the breadsticks and doughnuts Djokovic was handing out in the early rounds and he is saying the effort to achieve that may have been too much too soon?

    Not suggesting Rafa was wise to “start slow” in MC, he was pants, period. But what Djokovic says is interesting. I certainly had not looked at it that way.

    • rafaisthebest@April 21, 2014 at 9:59 am
      —So WE fans were ooh-ing and aah-ing about the breadsticks and doughnuts Djokovic was handing out in the early rounds—

      Who were these ‘WE’?

      • Ahem, @augusta08, work with me here, I am trying to be diplomatic! Who cares who said what now, we now know, from Djokovic himself, that this was not such a smart strategy afterall given this was the first tournament on clay. You said as much on the Barcelona thread when you said breadsticks and doughnuts may not be such a good idea for Rafa to aim at in Barcelona.

      • I’ve noticed a certain tetchiness has crept into some of the comments since Rafa blotted his copybook last Thursday 😉

        We all have our different ways of reacting to his shock defeats – some of my friends have commented that I’ve been like a bear with a sore head ever since but I’ve tried not to take it out on people here.

      • So, @deucy, is that a real ooh and aah, or are they in suspended animation, still observing the opponents??

        Btw, y’all will have noticed I don’t do smileys…….that’s because I do not know how to. There………

      • @ed251137, to be expected no, the blues if Rafa loses, I mean? You, to your credit, are more “together” than some of us, at least me. I’m more comfortable letting it all hang out! If I’m offended by a particular post, I address it directly. Keeps me sane, and it also means……………….no grudges!

        I think as long as we are direct, frank and honest with one another, there’s nothing wrong. If you find a particular post “tetchy”, talk to the particular poster. We can’t say everybody’s entitled to their opinion on one hand and look for the muzzle with the other………

        But that’s just me talking….

        Besides, I know there’s a big, bad wolf called the Rickster ready to whip me into line should I over-step!

      • I would like to know who the “we” are. Because I don’t recall people here oohing and aahing over Novak’s early wins. I certainly wasn’t one of them. We’ve seen him do this before and then have a much tougher time in the latter stages of a tournament.

      • I just want to say a big amen to ed’s post @ 11:53 am. I think it needed to be said. There’s no reason for Rafa fans to go at each other when he loses. People do process his losses in different ways. There is no right or wrong way to deal with it. So I say we respect each other. That would be refreshing.

  48. @RITB
    Am so pessimistic about Andy’s recovery, I’m not even expecting him to be in “the big 4” come the end of this year. It’s gonna take a while.
    So yes, Stan could easily be part of a new Big 4. Or will the original “big 4” always be referred to in that way? Don’t really know if the moment is passing, but it seemed pretty iconic and I feel kinda sad.

    • original Big 4 will always be. It cannot be undone.

      If Stan wins enough to be a part of some new group, it will have to be referred to as something else.

      • Muzza has not been shunted to the scrap-heap yet @deucy, give it a rest. He was not at MC, a tournament he hardly ever turns up for. He can mop up a lot of points in Madrid, Rome and RG and be back where he belongs in no time.

        I recently read an article by a top coach saying Muzza has the game to be a real contender on clay and I believe that……………

      • Gussie, you could regret giving RITB that link 😛
        Tenngrand will be lit up like a ruddy Christmas tree from now on.

    • deucy,

      I think you should still have faith that Andy is going to get back to his best form. No one said that it would be easy.

      However, as Ricky said he will always be part of the big four. Nothing can change that. He has two slams and an Olympic gold medal.

      Just try to think good thoughts and hang in there! 🙂

  49. ed251137 says: April 21, 2014 at 1:40 pm

    Agree. Big 4 is still THE game in town. So many have flattered to deceive……………

  50. Deucy: I gave my two pennies-worth on this subject just a few minutes ago higher up
    (about 20 comments back).

    Out of sight, out of mind. Andy is simply not on the radar ATM for most people other than Andy aficionados.

  51. No dice, am just too damn stupid……..

    Do I have to register on WordPress for this? I tried to register an avatar on wordpress and had all sorts of drama and now am literally terrified of messing around with wordpress……….

  52. hawkeye63 says: April 21, 2014 at 11:58 am

    Stats don’t lie, yes Wawa has a much worse record against Rafa than Fed and he only beat an injured Rafa for his sole win. However, I think Wawa has improved his game (especially his weaker side, the FH) and his mentality, whereas I have not seen any improvement on Fed’s game right now, in fact, I think he has regressed because his stamina has deteriorated. It is on the basis of this that I think Wawa would be more likely to give Rafa a harder time, not beat him, compared to Fed.

    • Sure, far from obvious but I’ll take Stan.(I mean, not even a single SET?).

      Again, in Rafa’s current state since the AO final, either of those two can beat him (plus a few more).

  53. Federer was defending and grinding way too much against Stan.

    The aggressive player won.

    As Fed himself once said, “He’s going to have to grind very hard for the next few years if he keeps playing this way.”

    :'(

    #Karma

  54. Translated Age Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Stan is following in Fed’s footsteps.
    i.e., he does well when Rafa’s not.
    April 21st, 2014 at 3:37 pm

    Translated Age Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.

    Orange is the new Black…
    … and Stan is the new Fed.
    1-12 is the new 10-23

    🙄

    #IfaTreeFallsInTheForest

    • Here is the blog I referred to above:

      Andy Murray outclasses Roger Federer during and after their match
      2008-03-05 10:06:00
      I had planned on doing this week’s blog on Andy Murray anyway – even before his big win over Roger Federer in Dubai on Monday. Frankly, he fascinates me both on and off the court. He shuffles along with shoulders slumped, as though lifting his feet is simply too much effort. Watching him, one could almost be convinced that Eeyore himself decided to take up tennis. Yet, he can run down a drop shot like a gazelle and cover the court as well as anyone. Then as soon as the point is won, he’s back to slumping and shuffling again.

      Sure, he’s gotten some flack for his on-court grumpiness. And he has the occasional heated argument with the palm of his hand, wherein said appendage appears to have committed an unforgivable offense and needs a stern dressing down right in the middle of a match. Yes, he got into some trouble with the English for stating that his pick for the 2006 World Cup was “anyone but England”. But really, it’s just all part of the charm that is Andy Murray.

      His results leading up to Dubai have been…well…strange. He won Doha to start the year off, then lost in the first round at the Australian Open, won again in Marseille and lost in the first round of Rotterdam. I feel pretty safe in saying that nobody quite knew what to expect when Murray drew, of all people, Roger Federer in the first round. As evidenced in the match, he need not have worried.

      Murray played a brilliant tactical match against Federer particularly in the second and third sets, but perhaps most impressive of all was the fact that he kept his cool after losing the first set tie break on a couple of careless errors. For the rest of the match, he picked his spots beautifully. He was just patient enough to allow Federer to get himself into trouble, but not lackadaisical enough to permit the Swiss back into the match.

      The biggest surprise wasn’t that Murray beat Federer. As I said in my blog last week, Federer has played one other tournament this year and has barely practiced – he was bound to be rusty and drawing Murray in the first round is brutal no matter who you are. The thing that had my mouth dropping open was what Federer said after the match. He alluded to his lack of match play, and gave the obligatory “he was too good today”. And then proceeded to offer a critique on Murray’s game. He accused the Scot of having a stagnant game “I don’t think he’s changed his game a whole lot since I played him in the Bangkok final. Not that I’m disappointed but I really would have thought he would have changed it in some ways.” He also concluded that Murray is too defensive and suggested that early burnout is inevitable.

      Federer doesn’t like to lose – I understand this and even respect it as the mark of a great winner. But Murray quite simply outclassed him in his own interview. When told what Federer said about him and his game, he calmly stated that his playing style remains what it is against Federer because he feels that is the best way to beat the world number one. He pointed out that he plays differently against Nadal because aggression is more effective in that case. Murray sounded intelligent and poised. And though I’m sure I’ll get flamed for saying it, Federer sounded petty.

  55. Just read an interesting theory in the blogosphere: Novak does not want to go to Madrid because of the way the Madrid crowd treated him last year so this injury would provide the perfect excuse to miss Madrid.

    We (royal “we”) wait and see………………

    • I’ve thought from the outset there was more to this ‘injury’ than meets the eye but I cant believe he is funking Madrid.

      • I really enjoyed reading that blog from Cheryl Murray. It reminded me of just how good she was as a writer. I think that I remember this one. I tried to make it must reading when it came to her blogs.

        It got me thinking about how Murray had some great wins against Fed when he was making a name for himself. She also correctly called out Fed for his pettiness. We would see it become a pattern with me when he lost.

    • Ricky Dimon@April 22, 2014 at 12:07 am

      I didn’t know that the Masters 1000 are now Mickey Mouse tournaments according to the people riding a bandwagon of Djoko!

  56. I believe what Tignor’s writing these days. What Rafa said is concerning. When you lose the one quality that separates you from everyone else, that has helped you win matches when you should not, it’s no small thing. To hear Rafa say out loud what I have been wondering, didn’t make me feel good. I would have hoped that he put the AO loss behind him. But I can understand why he is struggling with it. Rafa can live with losses when he has gone out and played his best and his opponent just plays better. He has said it himself many times. But to not be able to play his best, to be hampered by an unexpected injury, can really take a toll. It’s the second time this has happened to him at the AO. The last time being in 2011 when he had that hamstring injury in the quarterfinals against Ferrer. He was going for the Rafa slam. It can’t be easy to always be thwarted by injuries.

    I do think it’s way too early to tap Stan as the next member of the big four. He’s got a ways to go before he is in that company.. I also don’t know that he going to continue winning in the clay season. Tignor did acknowledge that Rafa will get it all sorted out. I just hope it’s sooner, rather than later. He has to get it together in Barcelona.

    Regarding Fed, I think we saw why he can’t capitalize when Rafa is out of the picture. He just can’t hang in there and play well enough even over three sets.

    • In fact it is the third time NNY. The first was in 2010 against Andy (also in QF) when he was forced to retire because of his knee/knees. That was the reason why he refused to give up when he got injured in 2011 in spite of U.Toni efforts to persuade him to do so – there was no way he could accept retiring in a Slam two years in a row. As you say, that loss cost him the chance of achieving the Calendar Slam and probably contributed to the mental slump which saw him routed by a rampaging Djokovic. With hindsight we can see certain losses have left mental scar tissue which affects his performance in subsequent tournaments.

      • @ed,

        Yes, you are correct. Thanks for bringing up that other injury. I well remember him arguing with Uncle Toni in the 2011 quarterfinal match. Someone who knows Spanish on vb was able to translate what Rafa said when Uncle Toni was telling him to retire. I remember posting it on TT. You are absolutely right that retiring in the 2010 match was the reason he would not do it again.

        I have been wondering recently if that loss in the 2011 AO was the reason why he seemed to be out of it mentally for the rest of the year. Now I do think that this was the reason that he started to lose to Novak. I remember how we were all trying to figure it out on TT. But the answer might have been staring us in the face all along.

        I think you have summed it up quite well. We really don’t know what is going on with Rafa, how deeply he was affected by those losses. I thought it was burnout in 2011, a la Borg. But seeing him after the loss in the AO final, I started rethinking that.

        Thanks again for your thoughts. 🙂

  57. Another neat bit of symmetry:
    Sunday was the 2nd time Stan has been the beneficiary of Djokovic health problems.
    He won his first ATP title (UMAG 2006) when Djokovic retired (breathing difficulties) during the first set of the final. And his first Master’s title came 8 years later when the defending champion (sore wrist) was taken out of his path by Federer.

    • No question, Stanley has been a very lucky boy, that does not demean his trophies, he won them fair and square, not blaming Stan at all. What I do not understand is pundits conveniently forgetting the importance of his lucky breaks to his victories and choosing to just focus on the victories make him one of the favourites for RG 2014 and YE#1!

      Let Stan beat either of the Big 4 in their pomp, let Stan win matches when he is playing badly, let Stan consistently make the final weekend of tournaments he enters, let Stan play a full schedule week in week out like the Big 4, then we can talk…………….

  58. Interesting facts about how injuries contributed to Stan’s wins.

    One other thing that I haven’t talked about regarding the AO final is after the trophy ceremony. The cameras don’t usually follow the players into the corridor. However, this time they did follow Rafa and once he was off the court, he put his face in his hands and started crying uncontrollably. That just tore at my heart. I wanted to just wrap my arms around him in that moment. It’s an image that I can’t get out of my mind.

  59. ^ nny7: It was indeed, a heartbreaking image. I won’t forget how gracious and forgiving Rafa was to the crowd that had booed him. They were, of course, spurred on by Stan’s actions. I’d already begun to dislike Stan after his actions and comments at the WTF, but Australia sealed the deal for me. It’s unlikely that I’ll be feeling anything positive toward Stan in the near future.

    • jpacnw,

      So you saw it too! It was awful. I don’t know how Rafa does it. He is such a decent person. I never really had any feelings one way or the other about Stan in the past. I just thought he was a the guy who would always be in Fed’s shadow. However, I agree with you about his behavior at the AO final. That was truly disgraceful. I don’t like him at all because of that. Truly poor sportsmanship.

      However, I did get a kick out of him beating Fed. I thought Fed would get it done in three sets, but he let that one get away from him. He just seemed to go away in that third set. But that doesn’t mean that I want Stan winning anything else!

      Someone heard talked about Stan turning into a prima donna with his recent wins. That would be most unfortunate. if it all goes to his head, then at some point he will be in for a mighty fall.

  60. Deucy: you said above re. Andy ‘Once a back patient, always a back patient’.

    Take heart, Fed built a pretty impressive career in spite of a back problem which got him let off doing his national service; Rafa has dealt with a laundry list of physical problems but look what he has achieved; Agassi suffered a chronic back for for most of his career but still won his last Slam at the age of 33.

    As long as his team manage his schedule and physical training properly Andy will remain part of the quartet for the foreseeable future.

  61. First, I just wanted to say sorry for the emoticons. I clicked on that link for them on the wordpress site and then decided to have a little fun!

    deucy,

    I agree with ed. I think the surgery will help Andy in the long run. It’s never easy to come back from any kind of surgery, but I was encouraged by how he played in Miami. He’s getting there. He may have little niggles that will bother him. But it doesn’t mean that he can’t still have a long and fulfilling career.

    I would not say it if I didn’t really believe it. Here, I will use one of those emoticons. 😉

  62. jpacnw says:
    April 22, 2014 at 1:50 am

    the same with me…I will never be able to forgive Stan his terrible behavior against injured Rafa…he made a fool of himself and in a sense showed his real face…even some friends of mine who were fans of Novak and were routing for Stan changed their minds at that time…Stan was a simple idiot and there is nothing he could do in the future to win me over..I would simply route against him even if he played Soderling to that matter…(speaking of him, poor Sod, is he ever gonna get back on tour?!)

    Vamos Rafa!

    • ^^^^^^ that’s a pretty strong statement jpa. But I understand where you are coming from. For many years I felt sympathetic towards Stan, particularly when Roger made so many disparaging remarks about him, but I never felt he stood a chance in hell of hitting the big time. Like many other people I was disappointed in him when he walked away from his wife and baby daughter ‘to concentrate on his career’ and thought to myself ‘a fat lot of good it did him’. When his petulance began to rise to the surface I lost patience with him: the AO behaviour was the final nail in his coffin as far as I was concerned.

      I found it fascinating how during the DC and again at MC the commies kept referring to his friendship with Federer and suggesting they were really good mates which we know is far from the truth. At best they tolerate each other: it would surely have stuck in Fed’s gullet to keep smiling while he trotted out the platitudes on Sunday.

      • Thanks ed251137, for reminding me why I keep Stan on my sh*t list notwithstanding his appalling behavior towards Rafa at AO 2014. That incident of leaving his wife and baby daughter for his career still leaves me cold. Everyone knows the special bond between girls and their fathers. I cannot see how Stan can hide that episode from her when she grows up.

        He is truly a selfish, selfish boar…………..

      • ed,

        Then Stan and Fed are not such good friends? The commentators on the tennis channel were going on and on about it during the final. Ad nauseum, I might say! So the real scoop is that they just tolerate each other? I wonder where these commentators get this stuff.

      • No doubt Federer will overlook Stan’s very public attack on him for shirking DC duties in the event they pull off a Davis Cup triumph this year – particularly as he also has Stan to thank for denying Rafa a 14th Slam title.

        #BFFN

  63. I’ve mentioned before that I was surprised that Rafa has been so successful with his admitted fear of losing as a good motivator.

    Google “fear of losing sports” and every article talks about the negative aspect that it can have such as tentative play.

    http://www.peaksports.com/sports_psychology_blog/?p=851
    http://www.thesportinmind.com/articles/overcoming-fear-of-failure-and-risk-taking/

    This might partially explain why Rafa performs better when expectations are lower (such as after his injury) and worse after he finished No. 1 when expectations are raised.

    Just sayin’.

    • ^^^^^And why he is detests being touted as the favourite, even when he patently is.

      A complex character our Nadal. In the 80s/90s there was a riveting series on BBC radio and TV called ‘In the Psychiatrist’s Chair’ when Dr. Anthony Clare interviewed high profile people – managing to get them to open up in the most extraordinary way to reveal their innermost feelings.

      Clare interviewing Rafa would have been fascinating.

  64. @hawkeye,

    Interesting points. Food for thought.

    For myself, I do not have any problem with comments expressing dissatisfaction with Rafa. It’s human for people to get frustrated and maybe lose patience or be upset when their player is struggling. Those comments can still come from a place of caring because if you don’t care about a player then you wouldn’t bother saying anything at all.

    I am okay with whatever process works for any Rafa fan in dealing with losses or disappointments or injuries.

  65. As I thought or rather as I was 99.9% sure Nole just confirmed (read it in the Serbian newspaper) that his injury is nothing serious and that he will be ready to play Madrid…so much of his “injury break”…although I believe that he must have felt some pain he was still beaten by Fed in MC and he should admit it…that’s all…

    • ^^Technically, he is not having a “break” as he normally does not play a tournament the between Monte Carlo and Madrid anyway. It is a normal break for him…………

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