Rarely in a Masters 1000 event do you see first-time matchups in the semifinals. But that will be the case on Friday, when Roger Federer faces Denis Shapovalov after John Isner goes up against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Both upstart Canadians will have their hands full–Shapovalov against a 20-time Grand Slam winner Auger-Aliassime against the defending Miami champion.
This is not, however, completely uncharted territory for Shapovalov. The 19-year-old reached the Montreal Masters semifinals in 2017 (beat Juan Martin Del Potro and Rafael Nadal before losing to Alexander Zverev) and accomplished the same feat last spring in Madrid (also lost to Zverev). He generally thrives on the big stage and this fortnight has been no different, with victories over Daniel Evans, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Frances Tiafoe.
Federer is through to the final four following defeats of Radu Albot, Filip Krajinovic, Daniil Medvedev, and Kevin Anderson. The 37-year-old Swiss is an outstanding 16-2 this season with a title in Dubai and a runner-up performance in Indian Wells, making him 13-1 in his last 14 matches.
“I try to put on some tennis sunglasses so I don’t see him; so I see blurry or something, or I see someone else on the other side,” Shapovalov joked about playing Federer. “No, honestly, I’m going to try to go about it the same way. And I’m really happy with how the week’s gone so far, so I’m just going to go out there, enjoy myself, just have a good time on the court and give it my all. You know, that’s all I can ask at this point.”
“I practiced with Denis way back when when he was…I remember (Stefan) Edberg was with me on the court and I was warming up–I think he warmed me up for a match in Toronto,” Federer reflected. “He might have been 16, 17, and, you know, similar to today, he was just hitting big. I was, like, ‘Wow, it’s unbelievable. How old is he? How good is he gonna get?’
“But he was very impressive; same with the serve–he has that beautiful swinger going…. I’m very excited playing against Denis, because I think he’s a great guy and he’s one of the great shot makers. I still remember watching his game in Montreal against Rafa when he crushed forehand down-the-line winner after forehand down-the-line winner. It was unbelievable. Yeah, (I’m a) big fan of his game, so it’s going to be tough tomorrow.”
But it will be even tougher for Shapovalov. The world No. 23 has required three sets on three occasions already in Miami, coming back from a set down in each of those wins. Even his straight-setter against Rublev was a battle, especially in a tiebreak second set. Federer, on the other hand, has cruised in straight sets since a three-setter with Albot in round two.
Shapovalov’s current form and his fearless attitude in these situations will make it competitive, but Federer should have enough in the tank to fend off an upset bid.
Pick: Federer in 3
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Federer is on a roll. Will win in 2. Only Isner, if he’s on, can stop Federer holding the trophy.
Shapo’s looked too solid to ignore. Aug has dismantled everything thats been throw at him. No reason to start doubting him now. He gets in his opponents face also and wll create nightmares for Isner.
Shapo in 3
Aug in 3
Much as I’d love to see a final between these young gun best buds, I think the old guys take it yet again. Both are going great and they’ve Been There many many times.
Fed and Isner, both in 3.
Fed has looked really good considering his age. However, a first time opponent for Fed can be really tricky- especially a lefty first-time opponent. Shapo has become known for not being even slightly phased by being behind in a match, or going to a deciding set.
There is no question that Fed should be slightly favored in this match, and we know that he is infinitely more experienced than Shapo, as well as has a higher tennis IQ than Shapo. HOWEVER…. I am picking Shapo to get the upset in 3 sets. With the court being stickier/slower, I think that it gives Shapo more time to take those huge cuts at the ball that he takes. But honestly, I don’t even really have any solid reasons I can give why I think the upset can happen- I just have a feeling. Fed could just as easily play a brilliant match and beat Shapo in straight sets, but I’m just guessing it will go the way of Shapo. I see it being similar to his upset of Rafa a couple years ago in Canada. Part of why I believe Shapo was able to win that match against Rafa was that Rafa had never faced Shapo before. And it’s the same thing tonight with Fed. And Fed has said that it’s often more difficult for him to face a new opponent than one whom he has faced previously.
So, yeah, I’m going out on a limb here. Shapo in 3.
Fed in 3, Isner in 3 and Isner to beat Fed in the final to retain the Miami title. I doubt the two young guns can cause the upsets as they’ve played too much tennis already.
While Fed is not exactly fresh, he’s one who’s able to shorten points with his serve and net rushing. Isner wins all his matches in straight sets so far, some in TBs but he’s not one who grinds so I think he has enough in the tank for the SF (and the final too if he makes it).
Lucky- if I ended up guessing correctly and Shapo upset Fed, and then Isner beat Felix, who would you pick in a potential Shapo-Isner Final?
Kevin, I’ll pick Isner, because he’s more experienced, and I doubt Shapo’s ROS tbh.
Btw, Tsitsipas-Koolhof have reached the doubles SF, I hope they at least reach the final here if not winning it. I love watching Tsitisipas, be it singles or doubles. The boy really knows how to play at the net, and his overheads are really good. He has beautiful strokes and footwork and a great serve, very fluid and elegant play, unlike the explosive and powerful play of Shapo’s.
When the two meet, it reminds me of Fed and Rafa – elegant play vs explosive powerful play; righty vs lefty. The difference is that Tsitisipas is not as aggressive as Fed who plays first strike tennis most of the time; and Shapo is very aggressive and tends to go for broke, playing first strike tennis, unlike Rafa who’s patient and counterpunches.
GOAT in 2.
FAA in 2
Fed in 2
Shapovalov in 3
The self belief that Aug has at his age is scary.
I think this is going to be a great match but the outcome will really depend on Fed’s level. If he plays like he did in the last two matches, he will win in straight sets. Fed’s serve has been humming pretty well, and Shapo’s ROS is not that good; usually, he just goes for too much. Fed’s ROS meanwhile has been great. Shapo will get his aces and win some free points, of course, but Fed in two sets if he plays at his current level.
Fed will also take the final over Isner. Even FAA showed that Isner can be broken, and if he had been a bit more clutch might have won that match. Fed will be better if he gets to the final and will lift the trophy for a 4th time.
Great match? I watched the first set and fell asleep so hadn’t watched the second set. As expected Shapo was no match for the old wily Fed. I mean other than raw power, what else Shapo has that Fed doesn’t, and Fed has them in spades, plus his 20 years of plying the trade compared to Shapo’s 2-3 years?
To me, as long as the big three are playing well, these young guns won’t have much chances of beating them; I mean they’re not there yet. Zverev was exceptional at the WTF last year, but he has already established himself inside the top five for almost three years now, and he’s more experienced than these youngsters.
FAA and Shapo have already done well to reach the SF, like some of the past and present greats; it’s just that they aren’t the young Rafa or Djoko, when Rafa at 18 made it to the final and almost won it (if it’s BO3, Rafa would most probably have won it) and Djoko at 19 won the title here.
Another youngster Tsitsipas has made it to the doubles final, so happy for him, at least that may help ease some of the disappointment of losing in R4 in singles.
This match was not as close as the scoreline suggests. Fed created 11 break chances and only won three, mainly due to Shapo playing very gutsy tennis when his back was to the wall.
Fed has not beaten three quality opponents with ease in straight sets. Hard to believe he’s back to his best at this age, but I think we have to say he is. I think the final will see more of the same. Fed in 2.
Sorry: Fed has *now* beaten three quality opponents in straight sets.
Poor Shapo has both his knees tapped up, I mean it’s still early in the season and his knees already have some issues? I hope he doesn’t end up like Rafa with all the injuries; esp when his movements are so explosive and he’s doing lots of running too.
Yeah, I thought of Rafa too when I saw the tape under his knees. Maybe playing on clay for awhile will help his knees but he’s really not a clay courter…