Miami R3 preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro will be squaring off for the 21st time in their careers and for the first time in more than three years when they collide in the Miami Open third round on Monday.

Federer is leading the head-to-head series 15-5, although it is a more competitive 10-5 on hard courts. After losing three in a row against the Argentine during a stretch from 2012 to 2013, the Swiss prevailed 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 at the 2013 Paris Masters and shortly thereafter at the World Tour Finals in London via a 4-6, 7-6(2), 7-5 decision.

Fast forward to 2017 and Federer is still going strong at 35 years old. In fact, he is arguably playing some of the best tennis of his illustrious career right now. The world No. 6 captured his 18th Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and is coming off another triumph at the Indian Wells Masters. Federer is 14-1 this season following a 7-6(2), 6-3 victory over Frances Tiafoe on Saturday.

This marks another dreadful draw for Del Potro, who is under-ranked at No. 34 in the world and therefore seeded lower than he should be at just about any tournament he enters. The 2009 U.S. Open champion lost to Novak Djokovic in the Acapulco second round and the Indian Wells third round, and now it is Federer who stands in his way prior to the last 16. Del Potro booked his spot in this showdown by beating Robin Haase 6-2, 6-4 on Saturday night.

“I would love to play against him,” Federer said of the 29th seed before the match against Haase had taken place. “I’m happy for him with his comeback, winning at Davis Cup. I should have played him here last year but I was sick. That was a pity.

“It’s better to play him his time around when we’re both better. He was also just on the comeback last year. We’ve had some epic matches against each other: semis at the French (in 2009); Olympic semis (in 2012); finals at the U.S. Open (2009). You name it–we’ve had some really good ones. I’m sure the crowd would love to see it.”

Although the South American-heavy crowd in Miami loves Del Potro, Federer’s fan support at this event–and every other–is second to none. The fans will likely be treated to another win, too, because Federer is still hitting his backhand better and more consistently than at any point during his recent career.

Taking the ball early, the No. 4 seed should be able to dictate the majority of baseline rallies and keep the ball just enough to Del Potro’s vulnerable backhand.

Pick: Federer in 2

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73 Comments on Miami R3 preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

    • Side note for you, Hawks, that we’ve discussed recently-

      Maybe you already know this, but thought I would make sure you know that Fed is, as of now, officially playing Madrid and NOT Monte Carlo…

      • I didn’t but suspected that would happen.

        Roland Garrison will play closer to Madrid than Rome this year.

        Calendar slam is still in play.

        • I guess I should say he is on the ENTRY LIST for Madrid, not on the list for Monte Carlo last I checked. I guess that doesn’t necessarily mean he will definitely Madrid and not Monte Carlo. I, personally, never thought he would play Monte Carlo anyway… My guess is that he will play Rome if he doesn’t go too far in Madrid.

  1. I haven’t watched the match. I happened to read somewhere: “Delpo is attended by a physio. Treatment of the left wrist.”

  2. Clinical from Fed. Delpo tried but his forehand is not close to its best level. Esp the running CC forehand. Fed kept him under pressure throughout though! kudos.

    So who will stop Fed? I honestly don’t want Rafa to meet him this week lol.

  3. Routine match for #GOAT2.0 over #DELP0.5

    No one is even close ATM.

    Damp squib as expected.

    Congrats to Me.

    #GodMode
    #Masterclass
    #NID

    • And Muzz has torn his elbow. haha

      My only hope is Rafa on clay. Not too confident about that either until I see some good stuff from Rafa.

    • Congrats @hawks for predicting easy win for Maestro!
      Did not see the match, just got back home..but, becomes pretty obvious we are to face weak field filled with those who are either injured or ‘too polite’ to even test the GOAT…

      • Why weak? Nothing weak about Kygrios, Stan, Kei, Sock. Any of those guys could beat Roger if they’re on top of their game and Fed is a bit off. Didn’t see Rafa yesterday, but everyone says he really stepped it up in the last set. If he sustains that level he can beat Roger too. There is nothing automatic in tennis. What I really don’t understand is anyone who wouldn’t want their player to make the final because they think he might lose. If Rafa makes the final, loses badly to Fed, and his H2H becomes slightly less overwhelmingly in his favour, it’s still a lot better than not making the final. Isn’t it?

        • Weak because the three winners of more than 80% of slams over the last SEVEN years are injured or not near their best.

          You must be more of a golf fan. Am I right?

          • Yes, Stan! Big wow! I guess we are supposed to believe the absence of Novak and Murray is no big deal! Just a measly 15 slams between them! The #1 and #2 players in the world out of action.

            Stan has 3 slams, all those other guys – 0!

          • Not winning a slam means you’re a weak player? Roger’s only loss this year is to a player who has never won an ATP tournament, never mind a slam. In what sense is the remaining field weak in a way that would guarantee Fed wins the title? In no sense.

          • Actually the reason is that Weak Era does not exist anywhere. The only place where weak era exists is in the head of Rafa fans. The tragedy is that they consider only those years as taugh era where Nadal won multiple grandslams like 2008, 2010 and 2013, else where you would find them labelling as weak era years due to Rafa’s injury, anxiety or slump…bla bla bla…Trust me even if Federer wins calendar slam beating all big 4 in respective finals, you wouls still find them labelling the victories due to ‘weak era’. While they ignore the fact there hasn’t been any weak era except at RG clay where there was abaolutely no competetion apart from Federer upto 2011 and than a littlebit effort from Djokovic post 2011 at RG clay. Apart from Federer upto 2011 and Djokovic from post 2011, there was absolutely crap conpetetion faced by Nadal on RG. Nadal took the biggest advantage of crap competetion at RG over the years. There is absolutely no deny about the brilliance of Rafa at clay, but anyone who watches proper tennia may agree that the competion at RG over the years has been absolutely pathetic apart from Federer upto 2011 and Djokovic onword.

          • Hawkeye, it was meant to be saying in a funny way considering the way Fed is playing. If course he could be defeated….But wait wait…I hope when he will be defeated again, Hawkeye’s ‘strong era’ will return…Isn’t it?

          • I reject the whole idea of weak era anything. One could make a case that Federer is one of the greatest clay courters ever; he just happened to come up against a better one. The main point to make against the weak era nonsense -which is limited to Rafa and Novak fanatics- however, is that tennis success is measured in terms of how you do in (the biggest) tournaments. To win a slam you have to beat 7 and it’s never easy. Witness the many times both Rafa and Novak fell, even during their prime, to lesser players at slams.

          • Absolutely Joe…I agree with you…A true tennia fan would never believe in weak era nonsense…Nature is so perfectly made that the brilliance exists in every era…I mean how many less number of grandslams Federer won compare to Nadal when Nadal won his first slam?

          • Mine was meant in a funny way too Asif.

            Only fed fanatics can think Roger can lose a match on hard court and still be undefeated.

            ? ? ?

          • Wow ?. Two fedfans both agreeing that there’s no such thing as the weak era.

            What a rare sighting.

            Shhh….Denial at work.

          • Federer had only 4 slams when Nadal won his first slam..A slam winner mean you are in era and competing in that era. So, after Nadal’s first slam win, Federer has won 14 slams but Nadal had won 13 slams…So, I mean….For God sake…..This weak era debate is probabily the biggest mystery being portrayed in a false manner after Bermuda Triangle…

          • Four players made seven or more slam finals from 2008-13.

            In the weak era from 2002-2007, only one made more than four.

            That and Thomas Johhannson is undeniable proof of the weak era.

            But I forgot your confirmatory bias.

          • C’mon hawks, weak era ended when Rafa came and made things interesting (2005). If you really wanna play the weak era game, you can’t convince me that 2005-2007 were any weaker than the whole 2nd half of the 90’s. Between the 2005 and 2007, the only guy who won a slam not named Rafa or Federer was Marat Safin who obviously cannot be called weak… I absolutely understand the argument that there was a time where the field was relatively weak, but get out of here with that 2005-2007 was weak garbage… Nobody else won beside Fed and Rafa because they were too good.

          • Not what I said at all Kev. You a cool guy. Don’t go running strawman arguments putting words in my mouth. I wouldn’t do that to you? 🙂

            Defined and backed with irrefutable facts.

          • Careful, Kevin. You gotta remember: Captain “Hawkeye” Pierce is a sensitive guy. Don’t ruffle his feathers too much or you’ll go from being ‘Kev’ the ‘cool guy’ to being tarred with the dreaded ‘confirmatory bias’ hashtag. Just remember who rules this site, ok?

          • An era is more than just three years now kev.

            Hard to conclude much over such a small period of time.

            One might be accused of cherry picking.

          • Sorry Joe, as much you might like, I’m not taking sides here. Simply trying to keep this site’s inherent Rafa-bias in check. If this were Tennis-X, I’d be do the same thing with the Fed fanatics. But it just so happens that Tennis-X sucks, and I really enjoy the commentary and entertainment provided by my dude Hawks and the other people on this site! I have no problem with people being Pro-Rafa or Pro-Fed, but I definitely won’t hesitate to speak when I disagree with something, which I’m sure Hawks would appreciate even though he disagrees with me! This site is very Pro-Rafa, so it would be nice to have it be more balanced, as much as some of the Pro-Rafas would hate that. 🙂 There are some people on here who I just haven’t even bothered to call out because they don’t even recognize their bias. Hawks is not one of those. 🙂

          • Right on kev. This site IS terribly Rafa biased and I’m definitely guilty as charged.

            But I like any tennis fan regardless of who they cheer for when they can at least hear where the other person is coming from.

            We need more fedfans like yourself and some cool Nole fans too.

            I actually don’t mind tennis X because they have a more diverse fan distribution but the moderator is an idiot.

          • And I call out the crazy rafans when I smell bs just as much as any other fan base.

            Just a bit of fun.

          • Just giving Hawkeye a little back, Kevin. All in good fun, but I’ll try not to drag you into it. Definitely not asking you take sides, and don’t really think of myself on any side, tbh.

            I don’t mind giving the Good Cap’n a hard time because he is consistently guilty of what is probably the most common error in reasoning, which is to attack the person rather than what the person says. When you call people names, even if only through a hashtag, or say they’re guilty of confirmation bias without bothering to back it up, those are ad hominem-style attacks. Hawkeye does it most of the time, but particularly when he can’t answer an argument (or can’t be bothered trying). And, even though I’m not going to respond to him personally anymore, I too enjoy the commentary he and other Rafanatics provide. Peace.

          • Aww poor Joe Myths.

            He just are to smrt four mee.

            You won’t respond to me anymore huh?

            You can’t stop if you tried ?.

            Promises, promises.

            I complete you. You’re welcome My fan.

            Hahahahahaha

            Try coming up with something interesting to say and I’ll be more than happy to discuss it but jeez you’re so transparent and close minded. Same tired old arguments with nothing to back it up except for just the parts that fit your confirmatory bias.

            #Humb1e

  4. Tickets should be refundable if Karlovic or Isner are playing.

    Spectators should be paid to watch them play each other.

  5. Nick is so frustrated with Karlovic ?Unfortunately, the DF in the tiebreak cost him a set. Nick is so much better player out there, yet he ended up losing the second set…that’s what they get when facing one dimensional serve machine..they are indeed ruining tennis…

  6. Both pox on tennis are playing at the same time trying to ruin infinitely more entertaining young guns Kyrgios and Zverev.

    Aside: Joe Smith is a misnomer. Should be Joe Myth.

    #AlternateFacts

  7. Way to go Nick!

    Great patience. No signs of “politeness”.

    All aboard the Nick train (or bandwagon if you will).

    One Pox cured. One to go.

    Vamos Sasha!!!

  8. Could you belive Nick had only 4 UEs in the entire match? He is such a talent and so fun to watch! And he is funny at times…can’t help it, starting to like him again…he makes watching tennis a stress free exercise…

    • Isner in Paris end of last year is not more boring but Ivo can be more exciting at times because of his emotion and his net play.

  9. Zverev has survived the Western Pox on ? after a lengthy and honourable battle.

    Big cheer from the American crowd.

    #GodsCountry

    • I was really happy to see Zverev beat Isner. That was a tough match and one he could easily have lost. Well done to him!

  10. Wow, great win by Sasha! Well deserved! Both Sasha and Nick make future champions! It’s just a matter of time! Both of them exhibited some great tennis, really enjoyable to watch…Bravo!

    • Yes, at least Karlovic has some net game; more entertaining than Isner. But good to see both Kyrgios and Zverev through.

  11. just watching Schwartzman vs Goffin and was curious to see how tall Diego is because he looks pretty short to me…so I went to my ATP application and checked bios and for Schwartz height says N/A…?

  12. Knew a short guy once who liked to say: “tall man, short man” as he moved his hand from a position with forefinger sticking up and thumb pointing out to one with thumb pointing up and forefinger sticking out. Maybe Schwartzmann could use it for some motivation against the giants on tour these days.

  13. Oh my God!Rog perfomance was incredible against Delpo!Very very aggressive…and i picked rafa in my Bracket!…Ermm,i think i’ve been stupid!hehehe….

    • Yes, Mira. Roger was very good today; I think a bit too aggressive at times and maybe gave del Potro more chances than he should have. As for Rafa, that was a reasonable call and may yet come true. At this point, I’m picking Jack Sock, but if Rafa can get by him, I think he will make the final.

      • Oh really Joe?I mean if Rafa can pass Jack’s test..there’s still Kei[supposedly] in semi and from our dear poster’s comments rafa has no chance whatsoever against kei![although i’ll stick with my opinion that they’re judging rafa much too soon and not to mention underestimated him]…oh,btw..are u a Rog fan joe?

        • Thanks for asking, Mira. I am certainly a fan of Roger’s tennis. I like his attacking style. But I do like matches which highlight contrasting playing styles, so like most people I particularly enjoy Rafa-Roger matches. I think Nadal often gains steam during a tournament, so if he makes the semis I think he will have enough to beat Kei (if Kei makes it). I’m curious, because Rafa seems to inspire his fans more than any other player: why do you like Rafa so much?

          • Hehehe…Good question joe!!..No one ask me that before,it’s a tough question!..Actually,when i first saw him,i’m fascinated with his style…long hair,rugged,sleeveless t shirt[not because of his bulging biceps!Nope!]…very determined attitude..and most of all..i love when he’s always make a very incredible passing winner from all over the court..that’s what i love most about him…

            And i’m also a big fan of the Big 4 joe..i am Rafa fan but i love tennis just as much..that means i love the Big 4 as well..and Rog is my 3rd fav behind Andy and in front of Nole…and i have no problem in accepting any of the Big 4 win over Rafa…hurts when rafa lose,,yeah but can’t help but ADMIRE and RESPECT the amazing talent of the Big 4..That’s it joe!

          • Yes, Mira. We truly have enjoyed a golden age of tennis the last decade or so. When I started watching tennis, in the 1970’s, there was a comparable golden age: Borg, Connors, McEnroe, and then Lendl. Unfortunately, two of those guys were basically finished in their mid-20s; and Lendl and Borg never played in a slam.

            One thing I like about the current group is that they all seem basically good people off the court (something I can’t say about Connors and McEnroe). In terms of admiring and respect, I probably have more for Rafa and Novak than the others (though Andy Murray has grown on me). I think Federer has more natural talent than any tennis player ever has, but in some ways I’m more impressed with what Rafa and Novak have done with what they have. Their mental fortitude, in particular (Rafa has always had it; Djokovic took awhile to acquire it) is unbelievable. If you took Federer talent and combined it with Nadal’s mental toughness, that player would almost never lose, imo. Btw, my favourite player -the player I never root against- is Dolgopolov. I love his game and he hits the most outrageous shots. But he isn’t the most consistent player, unfortunately, and I don’t get to see him on tv very often.

          • Yeah joe..i like Dolgo as well…his tennis..wow!..but,it’s a shame..if only he can back it up with consistency and stay injury free for long…such a talent..although i wish him to make a breakthrough in the future..who knows he maybe one of the late bloomer like stan?

          • And joe…congrats for Rog win over delpo earlier…i’m scared for Rafa[IF they’re to meet again] when i see Rog playing…his confident and his blasting winners all over the court made me speechless..

    • Never stupid to pick Rafa MA.

      Only stupid to say he’s done being able to be as good as he used to be.

      Fed is. I never wrote him off.

      Write these guys off at your peril.

      • Yeah Hawks…never stupid to pick Rafa but on the current circumstances where Rog already showed to the world[since AO] how awesome he is and just ‘schooled’ rafa at IW with ‘scary’ scores..and i said i’m stupid because i picked Rog at first but changed to Rafa because of my loyalty,love and believe in him..and Hawks i’m on top of the group in jalep wildguess and if Rog win again,my a@# will certainly get kick by Kpuppy or magic!Oh no!!!

  14. I’m going to try to provide an argument against the whole “weak era” idea, but first we need to know when it was/is. Any suggestions?

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