Miami R3 preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro will be squaring off for the 21st time in their careers and for the first time in more than three years when they collide in the Miami Open third round on Monday.

Federer is leading the head-to-head series 15-5, although it is a more competitive 10-5 on hard courts. After losing three in a row against the Argentine during a stretch from 2012 to 2013, the Swiss prevailed 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 at the 2013 Paris Masters and shortly thereafter at the World Tour Finals in London via a 4-6, 7-6(2), 7-5 decision.

Fast forward to 2017 and Federer is still going strong at 35 years old. In fact, he is arguably playing some of the best tennis of his illustrious career right now. The world No. 6 captured his 18th Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and is coming off another triumph at the Indian Wells Masters. Federer is 14-1 this season following a 7-6(2), 6-3 victory over Frances Tiafoe on Saturday.

This marks another dreadful draw for Del Potro, who is under-ranked at No. 34 in the world and therefore seeded lower than he should be at just about any tournament he enters. The 2009 U.S. Open champion lost to Novak Djokovic in the Acapulco second round and the Indian Wells third round, and now it is Federer who stands in his way prior to the last 16. Del Potro booked his spot in this showdown by beating Robin Haase 6-2, 6-4 on Saturday night.

“I would love to play against him,” Federer said of the 29th seed before the match against Haase had taken place. “I’m happy for him with his comeback, winning at Davis Cup. I should have played him here last year but I was sick. That was a pity.

“It’s better to play him his time around when we’re both better. He was also just on the comeback last year. We’ve had some epic matches against each other: semis at the French (in 2009); Olympic semis (in 2012); finals at the U.S. Open (2009). You name it–we’ve had some really good ones. I’m sure the crowd would love to see it.”

Although the South American-heavy crowd in Miami loves Del Potro, Federer’s fan support at this event–and every other–is second to none. The fans will likely be treated to another win, too, because Federer is still hitting his backhand better and more consistently than at any point during his recent career.

Taking the ball early, the No. 4 seed should be able to dictate the majority of baseline rallies and keep the ball just enough to Del Potro’s vulnerable backhand.

Pick: Federer in 2

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53 Comments on Miami R3 preview and prediction: Federer vs. Del Potro

  1. Tsame as Dimonator.

    However I’m now curious who Ricky originally thought would beat #GOAT2.0 before the quarters in his original tournament picks ?.

    #Rhetorical

  2. I hope Delpo’s mindset is right for this match! Most of the players have too much respect for Fed to fight hard.,,Delpo’s ground strokes can hurt Fed and if he serves well he can make this competitive…

    Fed will prevail in the end..Fed in 3

  3. Roger had better not get too confident in his baseline game against delpo. He needs to mix it up, and keep to first-strike tennis. The worst thing he can do is try to slug it out. The other minor worry is that Fed’s 1st serve is not quite up to its usual standard. The second serve is slightly better, but he needs that 1st serve pct. to stay high. A bad serving day and he could easily be out. Also, none of the top players have their usual psychological edge against del Potro: they all know he can beat them when he is on top of his game. That said, edge is still to Fed in his current form.

  4. Roger will get through this one somehow but seeing nadal’s performance against kohlschrieber there might not be a Fed v/s Nadal final. Nadal did not play that great but Kohlschrieber’s level dropped disastrously in the 2nd and 3rd set.

    • It’s typical of Kohl, he normally played well in a set and then tailed off. It happened vs Rafa, Djoko and Fed too. Kohl isn’t an easy opponent, it’s just that he couldn’t sustain his high level of play for long, if not he would be in the top ten already by now.

      He had also taken a set off Fed at Basel, Halle and Wimbledon, all of Fed’s fav tournaments.

  5. Fed really trying to take time away from Delpo. He is ultra aggressive. Look at those backhand returns. Players need to realize they NEED to shake the patterns up a bit.

    • I was going to say the sane thing. Are players not realising what we are able to ? Players are again and again serving to feds bh and fed is crushing returns off that wing by coming over it

      • Sanju, these players are so much used to those patterns and they believe they are winning patterns for them as well. It is not easy to all of a sudden switch them without actually realizing yourself on the court that they are not working that well.

        In my view players should still keep majority of the balls to Fed’s backhand but just mix it up a bit more.

    • Really dumb play by Roger in that first service game by delpo. He tries to do too much on the return too many times, and then misses easy cross-court passes. Sometimes he gets too much caught up in himself on the court; as a consequence, he wasted two break chances. Amazing reflexes by Juan, though.

      • yeah Roger was overdoing it a bit.

        Delpo finally learnt the lesson and throws to big serves to fed’s forehand. 2-2

  6. Most important thing against Roger is not to let him get into a rhythm. And stretching him wide on the FH is a good idea. It’s never easy moving toward that wing, and harder at 35, especially with a delpo missile coming at you.

  7. That was exquisite from Roger. But again, Delpo keeps throwing flat serves to Fed’s backhand and he is waiting!!!

    Okay that was cheap from Fed. Deuce

        • Nah, this Fed would lose to a peak Rafa or a peak Fed, when both were much quicker and more powerful than this Fed. A 19 yo Tiafoe who served big, hit hard and ran fast could force a TB on this Fed, figure how younger Rafa and Fed who were at least a 100 time better than this Tiafoe would do against this current old man Fed.

    • That’s mostly the bigger racquet. It improves the serve, the BH and the volley. And Fed is not faster at 35 than 25; no one is. On balance, this version of Fed may be as good as any previous version. Put a larger racquet in the hands of 25 year old Fed, and the younger version would win, probably comfortably.

      • Younger one would outlast him more often but this one is a more complete player. He is tactically more sound as well. The improved net game is NOT because of the racket. He has worked really hard to improve his net game and it was Edberg who finally put his volley skills right up there. It is not only about the volleys. Net game encompasses more. This fed is a more competent net rusher than the 2006-07 version.

        • Larger racquet makes everything easier and it makes having a complete game easier. Lateral movement (what you need to reach wide shots) is mostly a function of foot-speed. A younger Fed is faster, with better lateral movement and greater ability to reach shots when stretched wide.

          If Fed had been enjoying these results the last three years without changing racquets, everyone, including me, would think he was juicing. Top male tennis players do not suddenly get significantly better at the age of 32-33. Fed was playing with substandard equipment for much of his career. The last three years he hasn’t, and only God-mode Novak has been able to beat him consistently, in the biggest matches.

          To be clear, I am not comparing Fed as he is now to how he was 10 years ago. I agree that this version may be better on balance. I am entertaining a hypothetical about what he would have been like 10 years ago with a larger racquet (and, obviously, time to practice with it, etc). I don’t see how anyone could deny that hypothetical 25 year old version would be better than today’s version.

          • No, a bigger racquet is a net benefit with some tradeoffs.

            He doesn’t need the same speed with improved serve and more power on his ground strokes.

            Jeez man, do you even watch tennis?

            You do raise an interesting point.

            His improvement was not necessarily sudden.

            He was off for exactly six months.

            There has never been anyone CLOSE to his level in their mid-30s.

          • The improved serve and more power on his ground strokes is mostly because of the more powerful racquet (Fed calls it “easy power”). He would have enjoyed those benefits 10 years ago as well. In this case, there are few if any downsides to the new racquet. Maybe FH but I can’t see it. Obviously a much larger racquet would bring new problems. Here’s an interesting take on the benefits an extra inch in width can bring -in tennis!:
            http://www.tennisindustrymag.com/articles/2006/01/the_inch_that_changed_tennis_f.html

            Regarding suddenness, I am not talking about the improvement this year, though I agree that he has improved. That is probably mostly due to the six-months rest and the new coach. Maybe time to clear his head as well. But I am talking about the improvement from early-mid 2014, which I think was fairly sudden and quite noticeable, after an adjustment period.

          • Ok, Hawk, I tried to take the high road by giving you one last chance to respond like a grown-up -but you blew it. This is the last time I’ll respond to you, so let me give you a little lesson in confirmation bias. It’s real, certainly -though the way you go on about it you’d think it was a scientific breakthrough on a par with solving quantum gravity. It’s not.

            The main thing about confirmation bias is that in the real world it has to be *shown*. It’s not enough to link to some website definition: interesting questions can’t be solved by consulting a dictionary. *Showing* confirmation bias means actually engaging with your opponent. You have to consider their claims, offer counter evidence, and specifically show that they’ve systematically ignored or downplayed a class of relevant data or evidence that would undermine their claim. Others here (e.g. Vamos, Lucky) try to do that. But you’re obviously not interested, and you don’t seem to like being challenged very well. That’s ok; I get it.

            So, I await your next glib one-liner, hashtag, or video-clip that reveals a bit of your nasty side (incidentally, I’m a fan of tennis, not tennis players. What happens to Roger Federer personally doesn’t concern me any more than the fate of any other random person -not that I wish any of them ill).

            Have fun!

          • Nah, you make arguments based solely on a biased opinion with preformed conclusions.

            And your hastily researched (lack of) “understanding” of confirmatory bias is waaay off and limited at best.

            Oh and BTW don’t make promises you can’t keep ?.

        • VR, the younger peak Rafa and peak Fed would be quicker than this Fed, anticipate better and get to shots quicker with better reflexes and power too.

          Fed is playing against an older field now, making him looks good. Against a younger guy like Tiafoe, he was forced into a TB. Tiafoe is definitely not of the same calibre as peak Rafa or peak Fed. The current Delpo isn’t the Delpo of 2009 who was younger, quicker, more powerful and with a formidable FH and also BH that came with easy power.

          Djoko isn’t the Djoko of 2015/first half of 2016; Murray is always not a big obstacle for Fed, and so now we are left with only Stan. Stan may be better than Fed on clay now but no way he’s better than Fed on the HCs.

          It looks like Fed will at least dominate this early HC season if not also on grass.

          • Fed is playing against an older field?????

            Hahahahahahajaha

            He’s much older than all of them!!!!!

            #ComfirmatoryBiasIsEverywhere

  8. haha. Juan martin really enjoys hitting backhand slice approach shots. The are usually not good enough though.

    Oops 0-30 on Fed serve!

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