Miami Open final expert picks: Medvedev vs. Sinner

Expert picks are back for the Miami men’s singles championship match between Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner on Sunday afternoon. A three-team panel previews the highly-anticipated showdown and makes its predictions.

Ricky Dimon: If you remember my pre-tournament predictions for the Miami Open, you already know which way I am going. Yes, I had Jannik Sinner over Daniil Medvedev in the final before this event even began. There’s absolutely no reason to waffle now. After all, Sinner has been amazing in Miami–just as he has been throughout his career in the 305. The 21-year-old is 13-1 in completed matches at the Miami Masters. This run to his second Miami final featured four straight-set beatdowns (including over Andrey Rublev) and an upset of top seed and Indian Wells champion Carlos Alcaraz.

It is true that Medvedev is 5-0 in the head-to-head series, but Sinner has been extremely competitive on multiple occasions–including in the recent Rotterdam title match. Miami presents the Italian with a great opportunity to turn the tide and get over the hump. Conditions in Miami are fine for Medvedev, but they are ideal for Sinner. I think in this situation Sinner’s offense beats Medvedev’s defense. Sinner 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: While it lacks the zing of a Medvedev-Alcaraz showdown, a Sinner-Medvedev match is still a treat of a final for Masters 1000. Perhaps six months ago it wouldn’t have been. Medvedev holds a comprehensive 5-0 record over Sinner and their matches haven’t always been compelling. But 2023 is a different Sinner, and he has played fantastic tennis during the Sunshine Double.

Sinner has traditionally played well in Miami. The world No. 11 made the final in 2021, and while he bowed out in the quarters last year it was due to injury rather than getting outplayed. With Sinner buoyed by his semifinal win over Alcaraz on Friday and with Medvedev starting to show a bit of fatigue from playing his fifth final in five tournaments, I think the Italian gets his first win over the Russian. Sinner 7-5, 4-6, 6-2.

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Somehow at the moment on the ATP Tour, a hard-court Masters 1000 final involves the No. 4 and No. 10 seeds. Upon closer review, however, it’s not a surprising matchup since we will all be treated to Medvedev vs. Sinner. The Sunshine Double nearly ended up with identical finals. Sinner had other ideas and crashed the party by seizing control of his semifinal against Alcaraz midway through the final set. The prize for defeating the world No. 1? An even more difficult assignment with an opponent whom he has never beaten in five previous attempts.  

Medvedev has dropped just three of 13 sets against Sinner. The Russian’s 19-match winning streak was ended by Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final, but he will attempt to win his fourth title of 2023 in Miami. At the Indian Wells Masters, Medvedev had several quality tuneups prior to the final; this time his opponents were ranked 84th, 79th, and 119th before facing world No. 16 Karen Khachanov in the semis. As comfortable as this matchup and tournament are for Medvedev, it is concurrently cumbersome and taxing for Sinner. Medvedev 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.

Medvedev vs. Sinner match preview

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