There will be no Sunshine Double for Carlos Alcaraz and no rematch of the Indian Wells final in Sunday’s Miami Open championship match.
Despite Alcaraz getting upset in the Miami semis, a blockbuster matchup is still in the cards for Miami’s grand finale. Daniil Medvedev is set for his fifth final in his last five tournaments and he will be going up against a red-hot Jannik Sinner. Medvedev is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0, but Sinner has never played better than he is right now and nowhere is he more dangerous than at this particular tournament.
These two finalists just faced each other in the Rotterdam title match, with Medvedev prevailing 5-7, 6-2, 6-2. They also played a thriller at the 2021 Nitto ATP Finals, where the Russian survived 6-0, 6-7(5), 7-6(8). So even though Sinner is winless, he knows he can win.
Although conditions are also good for Medvedev, Miami probably gives Sinner his best chance. The world No. 11 is 13-2 lifetime at this Masters 1000 event, 13-1 if you don’t count a retirement, and he also reached the final in 2021 (lost to Hubert Hurkacz). Sinner is back within one win of the title following victories this fortnight over Laslo Djere, Grigor Dimitrov, Andrey Rublev, Emil Ruusuvuori, and Alcaraz. Nobody even managed to get more than four games in any set against the 21-year-old prior to Friday’s 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2 upset of the top-ranked Spaniard.
Medvedev endured a bit of a roller-coaster ride on his way to the final in the slow conditions of Indian Wells before getting crushed by Alcaraz, but it has been much smoother sailing in Miami. The former world No. 1 got a walkover from Alex Molcan and also rolled through his first three matches in straight sets, after which he scraped past countryman Karen Khachanov 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3 in the semis.
As good as Medvedev has been in 2023, Sinner is an amazing 21-4 and already has one title to his credit in Montpellier. He came close to a second one in Rotterdam.
Simply getting close against Medvedev is no longer acceptable in Sinner’s mind. In these fast conditions at what is quickly becoming his favorite stop on tour, the Italian’s offense may be too much for Medvedev’s defense.
Pick: Sinner in 3
Medvedev vs. Sinner expert picks
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