Madrid SF previews and pick: Nadal vs. Bautista Agut, Ferrer vs. Nishikori

Rafa 2It will be an all-Spanish semifinal when Rafael Nadal and Roberto Bautista Agut battle in the Madrid semifinals on Saturday. The winner will go up against either David Ferrer or Kei Nishikori for the title.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

Nadal and Bautista Agut will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday. For the first time during this clay-court swing, it looks like Nadal is the Nadal of old–the one who captured eight French Open titles between 2005 and 2013. The top-ranked Spaniard, who was upset in the quarterfinals in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, dropped only six total games in wins over Juan Monaco and Jarkko Nieminen before picking up the pace even further on Friday. Nadal hammered Tomas Berdych–for the 17th time in a row–6-4, 6-2 while serving at 76 percent, striking four aces without double-faulting, and holding all nine of his service games.

Bautista Agut, meanwhile, is playing by far the best tennis of his life. The 45th-ranked Spaniard is 19-11 for the year following wins this week over Tommy Robredo, Fernando Verdasco, Lukasz Kubot, and Santiago Giraldo. Bautista Agut’s 6-3, 6-4 defeat of Giraldo on Friday assured himself of a seed for the French Open, as he is projected to soar into the top 30 even if Nadal wins this one. And the favorite likely will, because facing Nadal for the first time ever and doing so on clay is not a recipe for Bautista Agut success.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Kei Nishikori vs. (5) David Ferrer

Ferrer and Nishikori will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-3, but they have never faced each other on clay. Their most recent meeting came earlier this spring on the hard courts of Miami, where Nishikori saved multiple match points before outlasting Ferrer 7-6(7), 2-6, 7-6(9). The Spaniard has still won two of their last three encounters dating back to the start of the 2013 season.

Nishikori is in the best form of his career right now and he will break into the Top 10 when the next rankings are released. The Japanese sensation won the title in Barcelona and has not looked back with Madrid defeats of Ivan Dodig, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Milos Raonic, and Feliciano Lopez. Ferrer booked his spot in the last four by taking out Albert Ramos, John Isner, and Ernests Gulbis. All things being equal, a slight edge may go to Nishikori based on current form. However, he took a medical timeout for a back issue on Friday and his health–or lack thereof–can never be trusted. What is sure to be an extended baseline battle will not help matters for Nishikori if he is anything less than 100 percent.

Pick: Ferrer in 2

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23 Comments on Madrid SF previews and pick: Nadal vs. Bautista Agut, Ferrer vs. Nishikori

  1. GSM, Kei Nishikori. I need to digest this………….

    Kei Nishikori beats Ferru, on clay, in Spain, in 3 sets, , on 10th MP, in their first meeting on clay.

    Kei Nishikori is through to his second straight clay tournament final.

    #Headshake

  2. We can only hope…………….

    RT @tomtebbutt: “Incredibly gutsy performance by Nishikori, beats Ferrer 7-6, 5-7, 6-3 on 10th MP. He’ll likely have little left for beast Rafa in final.”

  3. I would have picked Kei to win had I not seen him get the back treatment in his previous match. But he had enough to hang with Ferrer for three sets and there aren’t many who can do that. I am not counting on him being tired for the final and I don’t think Rafa is going to do that either.

    It’s a tricky proposition to rely on one’s opponent being gassed for a final. It could happen, but I wouldn’t be that sure. To be able to outlast Ferrer on his home court is quite an accomplishment.

    People have been talking about Stan, but now they should be talking about Nishikori. He’s in another final. I knew he was getting better, but seeing this is really something. A very deserving new member of the top ten!

  4. Apart from the famous Wimby marathon, I dont believe I have ever seen any player quite so spent as Nishi was at the end of that match.

  5. RT @Darren_cahill: “How good was THAT! (I watched?) Wonderful tennis & drama from Nishikori & Ferrer. Kei is the real deal. Nishikori vs Nadal final in Madrid.”

    Totally agree, Kei is the real deal. On the strength of what I saw today, Kei is way ahead of Wawa, Dimi. This guy is dangerous. If he can keep free of injuries……….

  6. Rafa will know that he’s going to have a battle on his hands. He knows that Nishikori is playing great tennis. Rafa also knows what it takes to beat his friend Ferrer on clay at home. He’s going to have to bring his best for this one.

  7. Everybody assumed RBA would be cannon fodder for Rafa but Rafa knew better. He knew about RBA’s fantastic season so far and he was right, the win over RBA was a good win. He will not take Kei for granted either, He knows Kei’s improved so much. In fact, in a recent interview, Muzza mentioned Kei and RBA as the most improved this year.

    Tomorrow will be Kei’s first Masters 1000 final, congratulations, kid, well deserved! Sorry though, I hope you fold before the King of Clay! 👿

    • Lol!!

      Guys I must confess that I have been cheating on Rafa, I have been so very consumed with basket ball that i forgot about Rafa’s match today………..my mom reminded me……oops! But i am happy that I was able to see the end of the match and even happier that that he won! Good luck tomorrow, Rafa, hope for some good tennis, vamos!!!

      • ^^Hahaha, another one hunting with the hounds, and running with the fox! We are all doomed! You do know what that means, don’t you @Mona??? Don’t worry, we shall hold your hand as you get feathered! 😀

  8. If Rafa plays well, he will be too much for Kei as Rafa will make him run even more and by then Kei will be too spent!

    • I doubt that’s Rafa’s game plan now @Mona. If you notice , he is becoming more aggressive, going for winners where he can and ending points early. He had more winners than RBA today, the same against Berdy. So this is a definite shift in strategy: no longer is Rafa looking to out-run his opponents or just wait fro them to make mistakes, he is going for winners early himself, this is where that FHDTL is so effective.

    • ^^Honestly !! Poor Xisca, I am sure she just shakes her head.

      http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/may/10/rafael-nadal-madrid-masters

      “A fortnight before he defends his French Open title, the Spaniard believes in himself again, buoyed by putting himself in place to win his fourth Madrid trophy in his 90th career final. Nadal said he took little notice of media comments that his recent dip in form meant his fabulous career might be entering its final phase ahead of his upcoming 28th birthday, especially after the back problems that hindered him in the final of the Australian Open. “You are at the top some times and then low down,” he said, “and some times you are in the middle. One day I will be at the end. But not yet.”

      You tell ’em Rafa!

      Vamos!!

      • I was referring to jpa’s comment re: the prancing girls buzzing around Rafa.

        Bet Tiriac hires hair and make-up artists to groom them for their 10 minutes of fame: probably his idea as well to dress them in a sleeveless version of a Greek soldiers’ uniform.

  9. I love Rafa’s final summing up “You are at the top some times etc. etc” He tells like it is. No bullshit or doublespeak from him.

    • ^^Precisely @ed251137! This is why I am a fan of this man. I mean, it is so easy to like him, no? Just the same as when his Uncle and Coach says tennis is not a difficult game, it’s hitting a fuzzy yellow ball and making sure it stays within the tramlines.

      Makes you wonder why we fans bother with endless analyses, conjecture etc, etc. when we could just listen to the man……………….

  10. Well now I have seen the match for myself. I don’t think Rafa played as great as he did against Berdy, but he still played some very good tennis. Some truly great shot making from him. The cc and dtl backhands are firing again and that’s a good sign. There are no words for the dtl forehand! Then there was that amazing one handed backhand stab for a winner! Brilliant! Some really good stuff from Rafa here.

    I thought there was no suspense because it was always going to be a win for Rafa. But RBA did give a good account of himself. The commentators said that he will be in the top 30 after this match. He didn’t just show up. He went out there and did his best. There was a blip when Rafa was broken in the second set, but he was already two breaks up. I thought it was a combination of RBA hitting some great shots, a poorly times DF from Rafa and some missed shots. But Rafa was able to stay in control and end with a nice break of RBA’s serve.

    Rafa did hit some groundstrokes short, but that’s the way it can be. I think he’s going to have to come out firing tomorrow, aggressive right from the start. Nishi showed real heart and guts in hanging on for a hard earned victory. Rafa won’t count on him being tired. He will expect Nishi to come out playing his best. The guy has to be feeling good after winning Barcelona and getting to the final here after outlasting Ferrer on his home turf.

    I believe that Rafa will bring his best and get this title! Go for it, Rafa!

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