Madrid final preview and pick: Nadal vs. Nishikori

Nadal 3 vs BennyKei Nishikori’s winning streak will be on the line against the toughest of clay-court opponents on Sunday in Madrid. None other than defending champion Rafael Nadal stands in the way of a second straight title for Nishikori.

Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers and for the second time this season when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title on Sunday.

Nadal remained perfect in the head-to-head series and extended his edge to 6-0 with a straight-set but hard-fought 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(3) victory at this year’s Australian Open. The world No. 1 is 15-1 lifetime in sets against Nishikori and he has 14 in a row. They have squared off once on clay, with Nadal rolling 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 in the fourth round of the 2013 French Open.

Right now, however, Nishikori is playing the absolute best tennis of his life. He current registers one spot off his career-high ranking at 12th in the world and he has already assured himself of becoming the first Japanese man to crack the Top 10 in the ATP World Tour rankings when they are released on Monday. Nishikori has not lost a match since Indian Wells; a stretch that features a semifinal showing in Miami (withdrew due to injury), a title in Barcelona, and wins this week over Ivan Dodig, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Milos Raonic, Feliciano Lopez, and David Ferrer.

Nadal is also showcasing stellar form in Madrid, although for him it has been a much-needed confidence booster. The top-seeded Spaniard fell in the quarterfinals in both Monte-Carlo (Ferrer) and Barcelona (Nicolas Almagro), but he has already made it two steps further in Madrid thanks to scalps of Juan Monaco, Jarkko Nieminen, Tomas Berdych, and Roberto Bautista Augt.

“Psychologically, in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, whenever I had difficult moments I was not ready and I was a little bit down,” Nadal reflected after beating Bautista Agut during semifinal action on Saturday. “Here, I managed to be ready straightaway…. After a great match yesterday, I have the confirmation today that the improvement is real. It’s very good news for me. I think for moments I played great tennis against an opponent that is playing really well and improving a lot.”

The defending champion will have to do the same in this one, but he could get an assist from his opponent of all people. Nishikori dealt with a lower-back issue against both Lopez and Ferrer and a nearly three-hour showdown versus Ferrer cannot help matters. All things being equal, the underdog would have a chance based on his amazing current form. But on clay, in Spain, and almost certainly jaded either due to injury and/or fatigue, Nishikori cannot like his chances.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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