Madrid SF previews and pick: Nadal vs. Bautista Agut, Ferrer vs. Nishikori

Rafa 2It will be an all-Spanish semifinal when Rafael Nadal and Roberto Bautista Agut battle in the Madrid semifinals on Saturday. The winner will go up against either David Ferrer or Kei Nishikori for the title.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

Nadal and Bautista Agut will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Saturday. For the first time during this clay-court swing, it looks like Nadal is the Nadal of old–the one who captured eight French Open titles between 2005 and 2013. The top-ranked Spaniard, who was upset in the quarterfinals in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, dropped only six total games in wins over Juan Monaco and Jarkko Nieminen before picking up the pace even further on Friday. Nadal hammered Tomas Berdych–for the 17th time in a row–6-4, 6-2 while serving at 76 percent, striking four aces without double-faulting, and holding all nine of his service games.

Bautista Agut, meanwhile, is playing by far the best tennis of his life. The 45th-ranked Spaniard is 19-11 for the year following wins this week over Tommy Robredo, Fernando Verdasco, Lukasz Kubot, and Santiago Giraldo. Bautista Agut’s 6-3, 6-4 defeat of Giraldo on Friday assured himself of a seed for the French Open, as he is projected to soar into the top 30 even if Nadal wins this one. And the favorite likely will, because facing Nadal for the first time ever and doing so on clay is not a recipe for Bautista Agut success.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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Kei Nishikori vs. (5) David Ferrer

Ferrer and Nishikori will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-3, but they have never faced each other on clay. Their most recent meeting came earlier this spring on the hard courts of Miami, where Nishikori saved multiple match points before outlasting Ferrer 7-6(7), 2-6, 7-6(9). The Spaniard has still won two of their last three encounters dating back to the start of the 2013 season.

Nishikori is in the best form of his career right now and he will break into the Top 10 when the next rankings are released. The Japanese sensation won the title in Barcelona and has not looked back with Madrid defeats of Ivan Dodig, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Milos Raonic, and Feliciano Lopez. Ferrer booked his spot in the last four by taking out Albert Ramos, John Isner, and Ernests Gulbis. All things being equal, a slight edge may go to Nishikori based on current form. However, he took a medical timeout for a back issue on Friday and his health–or lack thereof–can never be trusted. What is sure to be an extended baseline battle will not help matters for Nishikori if he is anything less than 100 percent.

Pick: Ferrer in 2

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155 Comments on Madrid SF previews and pick: Nadal vs. Bautista Agut, Ferrer vs. Nishikori

  1. RBA has been the cause of quite a few well documented upsets in the last couple of years.

    Today will not be one of them.
    Rafa in 2 (losing 5-7 games)

    #PeterPrinciple

  2. Nishikori’s dodgy back is the deciding factor. If it holds up then he will take it to three sets but Ferrer will prevail.

    Ferru in 3

  3. This will be the first time Rafa plays RBA. As usual Rafa will take a little bit of time to suss his game out. But Rafa has steadily improved as the clay season has gone and I expect him to show further improvement against RBA. This will be an entertaining match.

    Rafa in 2.

    Ferru in 3

    • ^^^^May be 2-3 games. RBA is a cautious player relying on percentage tennis and the ability to pull the odd rabbit out of the hat. I question his ability to stand up to the pressure today of being in the spotlight – remember how he failed to deliver when he played DC against Germany. Interesting Rafa has the afternoon slot again.

      Having just watched Ferrer deal with Gulbis in his last match I’m revising my forecast to be a straight sets win. The fox terrier is turning into a pit bull. I found myself feeling almost sorry for Ernie: that’s a first!

      • Agree he shot himself in the foot during that match but after all the ‘big I am’ spouting, dissing other players and announcing his aim to be World No.1 he can only feel embarrassed to be put out in straights sets.

        NB: I’m forgetting. He has an ego that won’t lie down :-d

  4. I think Kei needs to be close to 100% fitness to beat Ferrer on clay. I would have gone for Nishikori, but he’s obviously struggling after that MTO he took against Lopez. Also, Ferrer is playing really well this week. Gulbis was pretty solid yesterday, but Ferrer played a fine first set TB and fought hard to come from a break down in the second set of that match.

  5. I agree about Kei needing to be close to 100% fitness to beat Ferrer, especially on clay. That’s why I decided to pick Ferrer for the win, after seeing Kei getting treatment on his back in his match with Lopez. I also saw Ferrer’s match with Gulbis and was very impressed with getting it done in straight sets. He was really on his game. So I see him getting through to the final.

  6. I also wanted to comment on Rafa/RBA. I know that I made my pick on another thread, but I will say here that I think Rafa if comes out playing the way he did against Berdy, then RBA won’t stand a chance. I always believe that it can go one of two ways when someone gets through to the semis of a Masters tournament for the first time – either they will be overwhelmed by the occasion or they will come out with nothing to lose and just play fearless tennis. But I think Rafa is going to be ready. I am trying to remember how many games I thought Rafa would lose. I think that I voted for 5-7 games. I know that Rafa won’t take him for granted. He won’t make the mistake of thinking that it’s just there for the taking.

  7. Sorry peeps, Rome page ain’t up yet:

    RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Rome 1R: Gulbis-Nishikori, Dolgopolov-Tsonga. “

  8. This match is actually tighter than the scoreline suggests…..

    Rafa is gonna have to lift up his game here, RBA is tricky……….

  9. Hittin short and that defensive slice backhand when it’s not required is telling.

    Let’s see if he can serve it out or if he gets tight here.

    #HereWeGoAgain

  10. What I can’t fathom out here is a 26 yr old who’s only ever played one ATP final before making Rafa (and not only Rafa) work so hard for every point.

  11. RT @NeilHarmanTimes: “A forehand spins across and beyond Bautista Agut to secure 1st set for Rafa 6-4. But he’s in a match, that’s for sure”

    You can say that again………..

  12. Not enough agression on his shots when given the opportunity and misses them when he does pull the trigger.

    He was making those shots confidently against Berdych.

    Missing on the break chances again.

    • I think the tentativeness is because he is playing RBA for the 1st time. Berdy, he pretty much knows his game inside out….

  13. Pfft.

    No depth and on the one deep shot he hits, follows it up with a hanging drop shot.

    This will not stand against the top 10.

  14. one would think rafa will relax and open up his shoulders after going up 4-0. but….here we go…loses serve again

  15. If he’s having to work this hard against RBA I dont think my nerves will be up to watching him against Ferrer tomorrow.

  16. We are in another final!

    That’s a good enough positive for me!!

    Oh Lord, I had forgotten what Rafa in a final looks like…….

  17. GSM Rafa. A win is a win is a win.

    That won’t get it done against Nishi or Ferru I’m afraid.

    Hope he gets his good feelings back tomorrow.

    C’mon Rafa!!!

    • He will get it done, not to worry. Rafa always has one match where he’s “cold”, this was that match. If it’s Nishi, his lack of fitness will do him in. If it’s Ferru Rafa will battle, he won’t want to lose to Ferru twice in a row…………………..

  18. My take-out from the match:

    Good to see Rafa go for the FHDTL in this match, used it effectively especially in the 1st set. Also 26-21 winners/UEs ratio is not too bad, shows he was aggressive out there. Not good was the loss of concentration in the 2nd set. That needs to go.

    Still, it’s been steady progress since MC…..

    Vamos!

  19. I did not watch the match so cant comment but you folks berate him too much. Are too critical of him.

    I thought I was bad, there are many here worse than me :-). Makes me feel better 🙂

    • @Sanju,

      That’s funny, because if I say anything less than fulsome praise for Rafa then I have committed a capital offense. 😉

      I guess it just depends who is saying it. I can’t comment on the match because I woke up too late to record it. So I will catch it on the replay later. Then I can decide for myself what I think of Rafa’s game. He won in straight sets and the scoreline wasn’t that tight. But I will watch it and then see for myself.

      I do think that Rafa has so much confidence against Berdy and maybe that’s why he could play lights out. But I will say that no matter the opponent, the quality of Rafa’s tennis against Berdy was the best I have seen thus far in the clay season. If he can produce that kind of tennis, then he can work whatever is bothering him. It shows that it’s still there. However, that doesn’t mean he can do it consistently. Or maybe it was because he never played RBA. But I do believe that Rafa will bring it in the final. He wants to win this title.

      Sanju, you are far from the worst. Not bad at all. You just say what you think and feel. There’s nothing wrong with that. I told you that it depends who says it.

  20. If Rafa beats Ferru tomm given that he has already beaten Berdy, I think it will do his confidence a lot of good having beaten 2 Top 10 on the way.

  21. Novak Djokovic practicing in Rome (with Andreas Seppi), Wrist looks good, hitting and serving normally. pic.twitter.com/1wRpa8h4bc

    LOL. C C C C 🙂

  22. Genny SS ‏@genny_ss · 32m
    FINALS ATP: Connors 163, Lendl 144, Federer 117, McEnroe 108, Vilas 104, Nastase 96, Nadal y Agassi 90 (via @FerGrisolia)

  23. Rafas 50th final on clay which means he has 40 finals on other surfaces..So much for being dubbed a clay courter specialist

  24. Neil Harman ‏@NeilHarmanTimes 8s
    Rafael Nadal: ‘Now I know the improvement is real.’ @MutuaMadridOpen

    Rafa is feeling good about it. That’s all that really matters!

    • ^^Hahaha! @rafaelo in the house! I think you should be worrying about Nishikori @rafaelo, he looks pretty good out there but personally, I think he will be putty in Rafa’s hands………

  25. Wohoo NIshikori..If he would have lost 1st set, the match would have been over in 2..Now it can go long as Ferru wont give up easily :-)..

  26. RT @scambers73: “I know this match is not over but when did @keinishikori get this good?!! The Michael Chang effect?”

  27. I think Kei needed to get this done in straight sets. Ferrer can go all day out there without getting winded.

  28. http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/05/19/Madrid-Saturday-Nadal-Bautista-Agut.aspx

    “It was an important victory for me,” said Nadal. “After a great match yesterday [against Berdych], I have the confirmation today that the improvement is real. It’s very good news for me. I think for moments I played great tennis against an opponent that is playing really well and improving a lot.

    “He’s a really dangerous opponent today. He’s had great victories this year. So it is an important win for me. To be in a final here in a difficult tournament at home after losing in the quarter-finals for two weeks in a row means a lot to me. So I’m very happy.”

    “Psychologically, in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, whenever I had difficult moments, I was not ready and I was a little bit down,” said Nadal. “Here, I managed to be ready straightaway. For example, in the second set I had a ball to go up 5-0 and he played well and then I committed an error at deuce when it was 4-1. At 4-3, I responded again. I managed to serve well and play a good passing shot and to break again.

    “All of those symptoms are symptoms that I am mentally more stable and more confident that things are going to go well. This is great news in order to go out and play tomorrow’s match, but also for what may come in the future.”

    Hear that, @hawkeye63? Rafa KNOWS it was “all between the ears”! And he knows he is healing nicely, so cut him some slack will ya? 😀

  29. Kei’s improvements are stunning. He is keeping up with………….Daveed…………….on clay……….in Spain????

  30. True:

    RT @Darren_cahill: “Gotta believe also the old Kei might have retired by now. Good to see him stick it out and change his game to find a way. Offensive. #chang”

  31. Yes, by all means cut Rafa some slack! It’s not like he’s going to come out and give master class tennis in every match. But I think Rafa knows now that the great tennis is still there. That was important for him to find his great form again. Now we know that it was mental. But it’s not like he can just keep playing lights out in every match. He didn’t do that even when he was confident and winning. Sometimes you come out there and don’t have your best. But if you win not playing your best, that’s a good thing.

    I am glad that Rafa has this realization now. Because I felt that the match with Berdy showed him and all of us that he’s still got it. So what if he didn’t play brilliant tennis against RBA! The truth is that he didn’t have to in order to win. I am confident that Rafa will bring it in the final because he wants this win. It really will turn it all around. But that doesn’t mean that we should expect Rafa to come out on fire in every match. Hopefully that’s what he is working toward for RG. Fortunately, he has another tournament where he will face the top players. So that will be another test. One step at a time in rebuilding his confidence.

    Go get that win tomorrow Rafa!

  32. This is a battle royal out there with Kei and Ferrer! It looks like they are both going to leave it all out on the court today.

  33. Both of them are playing scary well but we have always known Ferru to be good on clay. When did Kei become this good a dirt-baller??

  34. GSM, Kei Nishikori. I need to digest this………….

    Kei Nishikori beats Ferru, on clay, in Spain, in 3 sets, , on 10th MP, in their first meeting on clay.

    Kei Nishikori is through to his second straight clay tournament final.

    #Headshake

  35. We can only hope…………….

    RT @tomtebbutt: “Incredibly gutsy performance by Nishikori, beats Ferrer 7-6, 5-7, 6-3 on 10th MP. He’ll likely have little left for beast Rafa in final.”

  36. I would have picked Kei to win had I not seen him get the back treatment in his previous match. But he had enough to hang with Ferrer for three sets and there aren’t many who can do that. I am not counting on him being tired for the final and I don’t think Rafa is going to do that either.

    It’s a tricky proposition to rely on one’s opponent being gassed for a final. It could happen, but I wouldn’t be that sure. To be able to outlast Ferrer on his home court is quite an accomplishment.

    People have been talking about Stan, but now they should be talking about Nishikori. He’s in another final. I knew he was getting better, but seeing this is really something. A very deserving new member of the top ten!

  37. Apart from the famous Wimby marathon, I dont believe I have ever seen any player quite so spent as Nishi was at the end of that match.

  38. RT @Darren_cahill: “How good was THAT! (I watched?) Wonderful tennis & drama from Nishikori & Ferrer. Kei is the real deal. Nishikori vs Nadal final in Madrid.”

    Totally agree, Kei is the real deal. On the strength of what I saw today, Kei is way ahead of Wawa, Dimi. This guy is dangerous. If he can keep free of injuries……….

  39. Rafa will know that he’s going to have a battle on his hands. He knows that Nishikori is playing great tennis. Rafa also knows what it takes to beat his friend Ferrer on clay at home. He’s going to have to bring his best for this one.

  40. Everybody assumed RBA would be cannon fodder for Rafa but Rafa knew better. He knew about RBA’s fantastic season so far and he was right, the win over RBA was a good win. He will not take Kei for granted either, He knows Kei’s improved so much. In fact, in a recent interview, Muzza mentioned Kei and RBA as the most improved this year.

    Tomorrow will be Kei’s first Masters 1000 final, congratulations, kid, well deserved! Sorry though, I hope you fold before the King of Clay! 👿

    • Lol!!

      Guys I must confess that I have been cheating on Rafa, I have been so very consumed with basket ball that i forgot about Rafa’s match today………..my mom reminded me……oops! But i am happy that I was able to see the end of the match and even happier that that he won! Good luck tomorrow, Rafa, hope for some good tennis, vamos!!!

      • ^^Hahaha, another one hunting with the hounds, and running with the fox! We are all doomed! You do know what that means, don’t you @Mona??? Don’t worry, we shall hold your hand as you get feathered! 😀

  41. If Rafa plays well, he will be too much for Kei as Rafa will make him run even more and by then Kei will be too spent!

    • I doubt that’s Rafa’s game plan now @Mona. If you notice , he is becoming more aggressive, going for winners where he can and ending points early. He had more winners than RBA today, the same against Berdy. So this is a definite shift in strategy: no longer is Rafa looking to out-run his opponents or just wait fro them to make mistakes, he is going for winners early himself, this is where that FHDTL is so effective.

    • ^^Honestly !! Poor Xisca, I am sure she just shakes her head.

      http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/may/10/rafael-nadal-madrid-masters

      “A fortnight before he defends his French Open title, the Spaniard believes in himself again, buoyed by putting himself in place to win his fourth Madrid trophy in his 90th career final. Nadal said he took little notice of media comments that his recent dip in form meant his fabulous career might be entering its final phase ahead of his upcoming 28th birthday, especially after the back problems that hindered him in the final of the Australian Open. “You are at the top some times and then low down,” he said, “and some times you are in the middle. One day I will be at the end. But not yet.”

      You tell ’em Rafa!

      Vamos!!

      • I was referring to jpa’s comment re: the prancing girls buzzing around Rafa.

        Bet Tiriac hires hair and make-up artists to groom them for their 10 minutes of fame: probably his idea as well to dress them in a sleeveless version of a Greek soldiers’ uniform.

  42. I love Rafa’s final summing up “You are at the top some times etc. etc” He tells like it is. No bullshit or doublespeak from him.

    • ^^Precisely @ed251137! This is why I am a fan of this man. I mean, it is so easy to like him, no? Just the same as when his Uncle and Coach says tennis is not a difficult game, it’s hitting a fuzzy yellow ball and making sure it stays within the tramlines.

      Makes you wonder why we fans bother with endless analyses, conjecture etc, etc. when we could just listen to the man……………….

  43. Well now I have seen the match for myself. I don’t think Rafa played as great as he did against Berdy, but he still played some very good tennis. Some truly great shot making from him. The cc and dtl backhands are firing again and that’s a good sign. There are no words for the dtl forehand! Then there was that amazing one handed backhand stab for a winner! Brilliant! Some really good stuff from Rafa here.

    I thought there was no suspense because it was always going to be a win for Rafa. But RBA did give a good account of himself. The commentators said that he will be in the top 30 after this match. He didn’t just show up. He went out there and did his best. There was a blip when Rafa was broken in the second set, but he was already two breaks up. I thought it was a combination of RBA hitting some great shots, a poorly times DF from Rafa and some missed shots. But Rafa was able to stay in control and end with a nice break of RBA’s serve.

    Rafa did hit some groundstrokes short, but that’s the way it can be. I think he’s going to have to come out firing tomorrow, aggressive right from the start. Nishi showed real heart and guts in hanging on for a hard earned victory. Rafa won’t count on him being tired. He will expect Nishi to come out playing his best. The guy has to be feeling good after winning Barcelona and getting to the final here after outlasting Ferrer on his home turf.

    I believe that Rafa will bring his best and get this title! Go for it, Rafa!

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