The story of round four in the bottom half of the draw at the Madrid Masters is seeds, seeds, and more seeds. A blockbuster schedule on Tuesday includes Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jan-Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev vs. Tallon Griekspoor.
(23) Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (2) Carlos Alcaraz
It will be a rematch of the 2023 Mutua Madrid Open final when Alcaraz and Struff meet again on Tuesday, this time in the fourth round. Alcaraz successfully defended his 2022 Madrid title by beating Struff 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, taking a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head series. Despite that loss, Struff has impressed mightily in this matchup. The German won 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-2 at the 2021 French Open and both of his losses have gone the distance (the other one a 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 decision at Wimbledon in 2022).
All signs point toward Struff being competitive once again. The world No. 24 is coming off his first ATP title in Munich and he appears to be up to his usual tricks in Madrid with straight-set victories over Jaume Munar and an in-form Ugo Humbert. Alcaraz missed both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona due to a right-arm injury, but he pretty much silenced any questions with routine defeats of Alexander Shevchenko (6-2, 6-1) and Thiago Seyboth Wild (6-3, 6-3). This will almost certainly be the second-ranked Spaniard’s first test of the fortnight, but he has restored confidence with two matches under his belt and should be able to advance.
Pick: Alcaraz in 3
(7) Andrey Rublev vs. (24) Tallon Griekspoor
Reaching the fourth round of any tournament is usually nothing notable for Rublev, but in this case it represents much-needed success. The eighth-ranked Russian went into Madrid on a four-match losing streak and had won just a single match (over Andy Murray in Indian Wells) since his infamous default from Dubai in early March. Finally, Rublev seems to be getting back on track with Madrid victories over Facundo Bagnis and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina–both in straight sets.
Up next for Rublev is a third encounter with Griekspoor, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. However, both of their matchups have been competitive; Rublev prevailed 1-6, 6-1, 7-6(6) at the 2023 Doha event and also won in three sets (3-6, 6-3, 6-4) last summer in Halle. Griekspoor looks poised to turn the tide, and not just because his opponent is in questionable form. The 25th-ranked Dutchman’s 2024 campaign includes a semifinal showing in Rotterdam and he opened in Madrid with a win over Taro Daniel before upsetting Holger Rune 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 on Sunday. It’s worth nothing that Griekspoor has won more matches on clay–with room to spare–than on any other surface throughout his career, so this is a great opportunity for him to secure a quarterfinal spot.
Pick: Griekspoor in 3
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