Madrid R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Almagro

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will kick off their Madrid campaigns during second-round action on Wednesday. Nadal has an intriguing opener on his hands with Fabio Fognini, while Djokovic is facing Nicolas Almagro.

Fabio Fognini vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Familiar foes Nadal and Fognini will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday. Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 8-3 and has not dropped a set to Fognini since losing a 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 stunner at the 2015 U.S. Open. The Spaniard prevailed 7-5, 6-3 later that fall in Beijing, 6-2, 7-6(1) last spring in Barcelona, and 6-1, 7-5 earlier this season in the Miami semifinals. Nadal has won four of their six previous clay-court encounters, with each of Fognini’s victories on the slow stuff having come in 2015 (Rio de Janeiro and Barcelona).

A resurgent Nadal is not looking as vulnerable in 2017. The world No. 5 boasts a 29-5 record, including 29-2 against opponents other than Roger Federer and 10-0 on clay. Nadal is coming off consecutive titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, where he combined to go 20-1 in total sets and 19-0 in his last 19 sets. Fognini lost his opening match in three straight tournaments following his run in Miami, but he managed to beat Joao Sousa 6-4, 6-4 on Sunday in Madrid. Based on respective current form, nothing suggests the 29th-ranked Italian has much of a chance in this one–unless Nadal’s ear infection is more significant than expected.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(WC) Nicolas Almagro vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Djokovic will be playing his first match since jettisoning his entire team when he takes the court on Wednesday in Madrid. Boris Becker became old news after the 2016 campaign and everyone else–including Marian Vajda–followed suit last week. Djokovic decided to hit the complete reset button after going just 7-4 in his last four tournaments, with early losses at the Australian Open (Denis Istomin), Acapulco (Nick Kyrgios), Indian Wells (Kyrgios), and Monte-Carlo (David Goffin). The world No. 2 also missed the Miami Masters with an elbow injury before returning in Monte-Carlo, where he scraped past Gilles Simon and Pablo Carreno Busta in tough three-setters and then fell to Goffin.

Up first for Djokovic is a fifth career ATP-level meeting with Almagro, who trails the head-to-head series 4-0. They most recently faced each other two years ago on the red clay of Rome, where Djokovic got the job done 6-1, 6-7(5), 6-3. Almagro gave himself another shot at Madrid’s second seed by beating fellow Spaniard Tommy Robredo 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 on Tuesday. The world No. 76 is an even 7-7 this season (5-4 on clay) and he is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Estoril. Clay will give Almagro a remote chance on Wednesday, but he will likely become impatient from failing to penetrate Djokovic’s defense and ultimately break down from the back of the court.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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82 Comments on Madrid R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Almagro

  1. The organizers are not helping Rafa here. I mean why do they give Rafa this time slot instead of letting Djoko has this?

    Djoko finished his match while his next round opponent is still battling away; Kyrgios finished his match long time ago and Rafa is still struggling now! Truly brainless scheduling!

    I think Rafa will lose this match and says bye bye to Madrid. So much for overplaying, he may be short of match play before the FO the way things are going now.

    • Lucky, a lot of people (including Rafa fans) are/were saying Rafa should have lost this match in a walkover. Whatever else one might say, I don’t think one can say the organizers didn’t help Rafa. The announcer noted that Fog was not happy having the match pushed back.

      I only saw the first set. Obviously Rafa did not play well; I can’t ever remember him hitting so many unforced errors. Fog was up and down, but did not play the big points well. I cannot believe he lost that set with all the chances he had.

      • Joe Smith says AT 8:35: “I don’t think one can say the organizers didn’t help Rafa. The announcer noted that Fog was not happy having the match pushed back.”
        Fedlovers should keep quiet on the topic. Fed asked the 2016 Brisbane tournament organisers to delay his start until Thursday (!) because of his illness.

        • August: If I say something about Rafa, it doesn’t mean I don’t think the same applies to Fed, or any other player. I’m against favouritism, whether it be used in support of Nadal, Federer, or any other player.

          • Well we never heard you complaining when AO surface was speeded up for Fed or when Fed got night matches for so many years whilst the other 3 sweated it out in unbearable heat or played back to back matches?

          • I don’t know about the court being speeded up “for Fed,” (proof?) but I agree that he seems to receives favourable treatment in getting so many night matches at slams, which is unfair. Maybe you can find an instance where his match was postponed because he was ill (like Rafa and Fog), which is even more unfair.

            Whether or not something is fair or unfair is totally independent of what I (or you, or anyone) thinks.

          • augusta gave you an example. Also in some AO he wanted to start later, maybe augusta can say which one. I think it was 2008 when he had a viral attack.

          • But the point is dear Joe we did not hear you complaining ever about all the favors shown to Fed. Did you complain about his night matches?

          • Besides was Rafa’s match scheduled for Tuesday and then postponed? augusta? If not, what is Joe complaining about. It isn’t as if there were supposed to be no 2nd round matches today.

          • Yes, Rafa’s match was postponed; that’s why Fabio complained. I’m not complaining, incidentally; I wanted to see the match. I just think it’s unfair to Fog. And when Federer receives preferential treatment (as in the case Augusta mentions) I oppose it too.

          • Joe can you produce proof that you ever complained when Fed received preferential treatment.
            As far as I know, Rafa’s match was not scheduled for Tuesday. I was looking at the OOP everyday. They had not decided when to schedule it, for Tuesday or Wednesday. Nole’s match was on Wednesday, and so were a few other matches. Why would Fognini complain about his match being on Wednesday?

          • Mary, why do you guys always make it about me, or whoever brings up some point you don’t like? Who cares what I think? Isn’t the important thing whether the point is true or not?

            I’ve provided a link showing that the match was delayed/postponed. In the telecast I watched, the announcer mentioned that Fabio wasn’t happy about it. I don’t know, maybe I misheard him. I don’t think so.

            Instead of all the ad hominems, why not just say: ‘You know what, Joe? You’re right, it wasn’t fair to Fabio that Rafa got extra time to recover when (by the usual rules) he should have had to play when the match was scheduled, in the condition he was in, or else forfeit. But, to be even-handed, you should know/admit that Federer receives this type of preferential treatment far more often than any other player does.’

            To which I would reply: none of it is fair, and it shouldn’t be allowed.

          • Your link doesn’t prove anything. Just some reporter putting his interpretation.I was looking at ATP site and they never scheduled it for Tuesday. If it was scheduled for Tuesday, can you give the time for which it was scheduled?

          • You still haven’t addressed my point. When did you complain about Fed receiving preferential treatment? In fact you were not even aware that he had received preferential treatment because of his illness. So much for you being fair. Secondly claiming that scheduling to accommodate Rafa is more unfair than giving Fed night matches, is just your opinion. It happens repeatedly but you have never complained.

        • Agreed. Organizers bend over backwards even to change the surface to suit Fed.They give him the draw he wants. Scheduling his matches as per his convenience is done all the time. While others have to play in AO’s hot sun, our man plays at night. He never has back to matches in grand slams since 2003 except one when USO had sf and final on consecutive days i.e. that was the tournament schedule, not something that could be altered to please His Tennis Majesty. Fans of Fed have no right to complain when a minor accommodation is made for others.

  2. Just got home turned on TV I didn’t realize Fognini was still giving him trouble in the second. Could someone fill me in on how the first set went? I heard Fog had a lead and lost it and that it was similar to what Almagro did. Also how did the Djoker Almagro match go? Did Almagro have a big lead?

  3. I know Djokovic barely won though. He just can’t get back into form. I think his losses to Kyrgios were super unfortunate for Novak because he played such a great final set in the IW match with Del Potro and Kyrgios just took the match out of Novaks hands the next round as Djoker seemed to be reaching a high level again.

  4. Rafa gon’ break back right here and take the second set. I just think Foggy could be too flighty to close out this set.

    • Nope. Fognini actually played such a good game there dang. He’s taking it to Rafa now. We could have a Kyrgios-Fognini third round match instead. Still think Rafa will get the third though.

      • I am so frustrated right now that I could scream. This is maddening to watch! Now it drags on to a third set. Over two hours already.

        I truly hate seeing Rafa struggle against Fog.

        • Relax Nny!..remember!it’s just a tennis match..and struggling,he needs to..the condition is not easy to deal with out there..chill okay?

          • Hehehe….Thanks Joe!Btw…i am sorry that you always got attack by my dear,smart and genius Rafans here…it doesn’t matter to me whether you’re Fedfan or Nolefan..i like u Joe….just hangin’ strong here okay?

          • Thanks, Mira. Incidentally, I think Rafa is the best when it comes to keeping tennis in perspective. Whenever he loses a tough match, he says something like: ‘At the end of the day I lost a tennis match; is not the end of the world, no?’

          • Yeah Joe!!Exactly!!Everytime Rafa lost and i feel the pain from it..i always remember Rafa’s words…and seeing him recovered from it in a blink of an eye,made me thinking..”if Rafa can do it,why can’t i?He’s the one who should suffer the most,because he’s the one who’s slugging physically and mentally out there,not us…”

        • Whoever wins this match would not survive Kyrgios. This match will go over 3 hours, the winner will have nothing left for tomorrow’s match!

  5. I think if rafa eager to makes winner like Foggy,he could close out this match sooner…but,yeah..typical rafa…rally and rally and rally and rally…

  6. I’m rather thinking it’s no bad thing if Rafa does’t beat the Fog then he can get some rest and regroup for Rome and the final push before RG.

    Oh well it looks like he might nott be going home just yet! Hope he has a good game plan for Mr. Curious.

  7. I missed the first set and a half so I didn’t see all the errors but this last set has been mostly pretty good quality imo. Those two check out games from Fog were a little suspect but each guy is hitting a fair amount of winners and forcing errors at this point.

  8. Just got home. Missed the end of Novak’s match and I’m not terribly surprised by the score of Rafa v Fogna. You never know with Fabio.

    Vamos Rafa!

    • Rafa wins! Finally! Don’t tell me this didn’t mean something to Rafa! I am glad that he didn’t lose to Fog!

      Rafa gutted it out. After this marathon, he has to face Kyrgios. Rafa has to play a lot better if he wants to beat Kyrgios.

  9. I’m now laughing at how good some of the shots Fog hits coupled with how bad some of them are. That’s Fognini for you I guess. LOL HE JUST DOUBLED. I REST MY CASE

    • Fognini is the biggest head case in tennis in the top 50, after Monfils. Maybe I’ve missed someone, but I can’t think of him.

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