Madrid R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Almagro

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will kick off their Madrid campaigns during second-round action on Wednesday. Nadal has an intriguing opener on his hands with Fabio Fognini, while Djokovic is facing Nicolas Almagro.

Fabio Fognini vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

Familiar foes Nadal and Fognini will be squaring off for the 12th time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday. Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 8-3 and has not dropped a set to Fognini since losing a 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 stunner at the 2015 U.S. Open. The Spaniard prevailed 7-5, 6-3 later that fall in Beijing, 6-2, 7-6(1) last spring in Barcelona, and 6-1, 7-5 earlier this season in the Miami semifinals. Nadal has won four of their six previous clay-court encounters, with each of Fognini’s victories on the slow stuff having come in 2015 (Rio de Janeiro and Barcelona).

A resurgent Nadal is not looking as vulnerable in 2017. The world No. 5 boasts a 29-5 record, including 29-2 against opponents other than Roger Federer and 10-0 on clay. Nadal is coming off consecutive titles in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, where he combined to go 20-1 in total sets and 19-0 in his last 19 sets. Fognini lost his opening match in three straight tournaments following his run in Miami, but he managed to beat Joao Sousa 6-4, 6-4 on Sunday in Madrid. Based on respective current form, nothing suggests the 29th-ranked Italian has much of a chance in this one–unless Nadal’s ear infection is more significant than expected.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(WC) Nicolas Almagro vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Djokovic will be playing his first match since jettisoning his entire team when he takes the court on Wednesday in Madrid. Boris Becker became old news after the 2016 campaign and everyone else–including Marian Vajda–followed suit last week. Djokovic decided to hit the complete reset button after going just 7-4 in his last four tournaments, with early losses at the Australian Open (Denis Istomin), Acapulco (Nick Kyrgios), Indian Wells (Kyrgios), and Monte-Carlo (David Goffin). The world No. 2 also missed the Miami Masters with an elbow injury before returning in Monte-Carlo, where he scraped past Gilles Simon and Pablo Carreno Busta in tough three-setters and then fell to Goffin.

Up first for Djokovic is a fifth career ATP-level meeting with Almagro, who trails the head-to-head series 4-0. They most recently faced each other two years ago on the red clay of Rome, where Djokovic got the job done 6-1, 6-7(5), 6-3. Almagro gave himself another shot at Madrid’s second seed by beating fellow Spaniard Tommy Robredo 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 on Tuesday. The world No. 76 is an even 7-7 this season (5-4 on clay) and he is coming off a quarterfinal performance in Estoril. Clay will give Almagro a remote chance on Wednesday, but he will likely become impatient from failing to penetrate Djokovic’s defense and ultimately break down from the back of the court.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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27 Comments on Madrid R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Fognini, Djokovic vs. Almagro

  1. Assuming Rafa’s ear infection is under control, then he should have an easy time of it with Fog.

    Novak should be able to take care of Almagro in straight sets.

  2. Nole, of course, isn’t packing extra pounds but he’s not sharp either. I’ll be happy if he gets out of this in 2 sets, if possible! Come on, Nole!

  3. Joker is back to being a mental midget that he was for so long before his great run. He needs to see a sports psychiatrist more than anything else in my opinion.

  4. Lol. Given what is going on with him these days, I won’t be too surprised haha.

    This is a 50-50 match at the moment.

  5. 5:5, final set. Nico is having another go of holding his serve and making Djoker serve to stay in the match.

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