Veteran Rafael Nadal will clash with teen phenom and fellow Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz in Madrid on Friday. Top seed Novak Djokovic will also be in quarterfinal action against Hubert Hurkacz after the Serb got a third-round walkover.
(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (7) Carlos Alcaraz
The last time Rafael Nadal and teenager Carlos Alcaraz met was just six weeks ago on the hard courts of Indian Wells in the semis. It was during that match, contested in wildly high wind, that Nadal suffered a stress fracture to one of his ribs. The 35-year-old managed to win despite the clearly painful injury, but he proceeded to suffer his first loss of the season to Taylor Fritz in the final the following day.
Along with his elder countryman, Alcaraz is the dominant player of the season so far. He holds three titles so far and owns a 23-3 match record. He lost his first match at the Monte-Carlo Masters to Sebastian Korda but ran the board in Barcelona last week. If the No. 7 seed is feeling any fatigue from playing so much tennis, he hasn’t shown it yet in Madrid.
Nadal boasts a 2-0 record over Alcaraz, although the younger man got awfully close to taking him out in Indian Wells. A fully fit, in-form Nadal would probably continue to have the edge, as Alcaraz has had some inconsistent play in the past month. Nadal is not, however, in peak form just yet. The six-week layoff has dented his traditional mystique on clay. His form against David Goffin in the round of 16 was legitimately shaky; he had to stave off four match points before he finally closed it out in a deciding-set tiebreaker. Alcaraz is going to have an excellent chance to snag his first win over the 21-time major champion.
Cheryl pick: Alcaraz in 3
Ricky pick: Alcaraz in 3
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (12) Hubert Hurkacz
Top seed Novak Djokovic remains without a title in 2022. His decision to remain unvaccinated has rendered him ineligible to compete in any country that requires proof of vaccination for entry. It knocked him out of the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami. He was a mere 5-3 on the season going into Madrid.
Hubert Hurkacz has quietly enjoyed outstanding success in 2022 so far. He kicked off the European clay season with a quarterfinal result in Monte-Carlo and he has at least matched that in Madrid. He has an 0-3 record against Djokovic, but given the Serb’s lack of match play Friday’s contest represents an excellent opportunity for the No. 12 seed.
Djokovic got from a walkover by Andy Murray in the round of 16. The other member of tennis’ Big Four had to withdraw from the tournament with a stomach bug. Of course, given Djokovic’s spotty tournament attendance, he could have used another match going into the quarters.
Cheryl pick: Hurkacz in 3
Ricky pick: Hurkacz in 3
WWW?
Initially I thought that Nadal should sit this one out because his chances of winning are slim and if he does come on top it might be even worse. He risks getting beaten by a main RG rival (Djokovic or Tsitsi) and, worse, diminishing his Rome (and maybe RG) chances.
However:
– he still lacks match play and it’s not a given that he goes far enough in Rome, so this is a perfect opportunity to tune his game against a RG title candidate
– he does not get many chances to play at home and fans would be disappointed if he skips this highly anticipated encounter
– Nadal losing today may give Alcaraz too much confidence ahead of RG. It would also reduce pressure on Rafa (unbeaten this year when healthy, etc.) and serve as extra motivation going forward.
In any case, Alcaraz is favourite today, but you never know. He must be getting mentally tired given how much he played this year. Also when playing in Madrid it is crucial to tame your shots and it looks to me like Carlos’ high risk high reward strategy may not pay off here. The balls travel faster, it’s not unthinkable that Rafa starts with all guns blazing, doesn’t have dips and gets the job done in 2.
Although Rafa has won Madrid 5 times, one of those being on indoors hard court before it changed to clay in 2009, he doesn’t particularly like the high altitude in Madrid so it’s not his best hunting ground compared to the other clay tournaments.
Rafa is working his way into match fitness and he has tried to manage expectations by saying although he is fully recovered from the rib fracture he hasn’t had much preparation before coming to Madrid. So we’ll see.
Much of Rafa’s woes yesterday came from his racquet with far too many UEs, by not quite getting his range right. But I have to also credit Goffin for playing an outstanding match and not letting up.
On Rafa playing Madrid, that’s what I expected he would do, precisely for match plays, regardless of whether he wins the title or not. It’s too risky not playing at Madrid and goes straight to Rome, when he may also lose there (thus short of match play).
It’s different from 2020 when he had little match plays but still won the FO, because he wasn’t coming back from injury at that time.
He may lose to Alcaraz or Djoko or Tsitsipas/Zverev or whoever, but at least he gets himself tested and knows what he needs to improve on, before getting ready for the FO.
These guys have the best losing sportsbetting system in the world. It’s both sad and comical.
Nadal and Djokovic in 3.
I wish they would stop having back to back masters.Rome starts before Madrid ends.
Honestly, I hate to c Rafa lose but for all the reasons cited it’s probably best if he loses to Carlos here!! It’s a tall order just coming from injury and having to navigate this brutal draw that he’s been dealt while others are just cruising!! OTOH, I would much rather him lose to Carlos than that Djoker!!! So it’s a bit of a dilemma for me so I’ll just leave it to the tennis Gods!!! Vamos Rafa!!
Dont be hard on yourselves. Getting them all wrong is just as valuable as getting them all right, providing you use that information to your advantage.
Yes. It’s like the real players getting badly beat as part of their learning process.
C Rafa is in trouble already!! Don’t think Rafa should be going all out to beat Carlos here!!! It’s not worth the win!!
Yes Rafa can’t hold his serve. This is not a good start. The last time he hurt his rib. He doesn’t need this. After a 3 hour match yesterday he doesn’t need to gut out another tough match.
But I do think it was the right thing to play in Madrid. He already missed Monte Carlo and Barcelona. He needed to play here and in Rome. It’s just bad luck that he had to come up against Alcazar again.
Struggling to hold serve every time is not going to do it. He is already down a break.
Yeah, this is not his best tourney, so like I said on another thread, as much as I hate to c him lose it’s best that he throws in the towel here rather than push too much and risk injury and on top of that lose to that Djoker!!!! He made the quarters so he does not lose points and then he can move on, work on his fitness and prepare for RG, which is the true prize!! I’m good with him losing here!!! Vamos!!
Aside: Its Alcaraz.
Alcazar is a pop group , but I believe theres a Spanish connection and a real place .
Why is Rafa struggling to hold his serve?
I think even if Alcaraz beats Rafa here, he’s not going to beat Djoko in the SF.
Djoko is playing very well imo, his serve is really a weapon when he needs it to get him out of trouble. Alcaraz makes too many errors imo even though he hits many winners.
Rafa is clearly not in top form, and he’s unwilling to hit to Alcaraz’s FH which I don’t understand why.
Alcaraz’s DHBH is > than his FH I feel, so Rafa should mix it up and hits to Alcaraz’s FH as well. Rafa’s hitting pattern is so predictable that Alcaraz is all ready for it.
That’s what happens to Rafa when he is unfit and lacking confidence! I have seen it happen all too well. Rafa”s already tamed expectations form the beginning so I don’t expect him to move up from here. However, u r right , don’t think Carlos will beat Novak, but this match will be lit!! 😂
That first set was pretty lopsided.
How many times has Rafa had him at 0-40? Yet he can’t break.
Both Djoko and Alcaraz could rely on their serve to get themselves out of troubles, Rafa couldn’t.
Rafa’s serve is really affected by this rib injury, I mean how many times he’s hitting his first serve into the net. Without a good first serve, it’s so tough for him to win a point.
Alcaraz has a fall, looks like he has hurt his ankle, hope it’s not serious.
Oh no!!! Damn it!!! Hope he’s fine!!! That’s last thing him and tennis fans need!!!
Rafa bp conversion rate is like Roger”s now!!! Abysmal!!!
Lucky,
This is what I was afraid of. That the rib injury would affect Rafa’s serve. He worked hard on his serve and it paid off at the AO.
Alcaraz seems to always be able to get out of trouble on his serve. Novak is a master at avoiding breaks of serve.
What’s going on has match been suspended?
Someone in the crowd is in medical distress.
Oh dear!!!
See Rafa broke!!! Let’s hope he consolidates till the end