Madrid QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Alcaraz, Djokovic vs. Hurkacz

Veteran Rafael Nadal will clash with teen phenom and fellow Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz in Madrid on Friday. Top seed Novak Djokovic will also be in quarterfinal action against Hubert Hurkacz after the Serb got a third-round walkover.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (7) Carlos Alcaraz

The last time Rafael Nadal and teenager Carlos Alcaraz met was just six weeks ago on the hard courts of Indian Wells in the semis. It was during that match, contested in wildly high wind, that Nadal suffered a stress fracture to one of his ribs. The 35-year-old managed to win despite the clearly painful injury, but he proceeded to suffer his first loss of the season to Taylor Fritz in the final the following day.

Along with his elder countryman, Alcaraz is the dominant player of the season so far. He holds three titles so far and owns a 23-3 match record. He lost his first match at the Monte-Carlo Masters to Sebastian Korda but ran the board in Barcelona last week. If the No. 7 seed is feeling any fatigue from playing so much tennis, he hasn’t shown it yet in Madrid.

Nadal boasts a 2-0 record over Alcaraz, although the younger man got awfully close to taking him out in Indian Wells. A fully fit, in-form Nadal would probably continue to have the edge, as Alcaraz has had some inconsistent play in the past month. Nadal is not, however, in peak form just yet. The six-week layoff has dented his traditional mystique on clay. His form against David Goffin in the round of 16 was legitimately shaky; he had to stave off four match points before he finally closed it out in a deciding-set tiebreaker. Alcaraz is going to have an excellent chance to snag his first win over the 21-time major champion.

Cheryl pick: Alcaraz in 3

Ricky pick: Alcaraz in 3

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WWW: Nadal vs. Alcaraz?

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (12) Hubert Hurkacz

Top seed Novak Djokovic remains without a title in 2022. His decision to remain unvaccinated has rendered him ineligible to compete in any country that requires proof of vaccination for entry. It knocked him out of the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami. He was a mere 5-3 on the season going into Madrid.

Hubert Hurkacz has quietly enjoyed outstanding success in 2022 so far. He kicked off the European clay season with a quarterfinal result in Monte-Carlo and he has at least matched that in Madrid. He has an 0-3 record against Djokovic, but given the Serb’s lack of match play Friday’s contest represents an excellent opportunity for the No. 12 seed.

Djokovic got from a walkover by Andy Murray in the round of 16. The other member of tennis’ Big Four had to withdraw from the tournament with a stomach bug. Of course, given Djokovic’s spotty tournament attendance, he could have used another match going into the quarters.

Cheryl pick: Hurkacz in 3

Ricky pick: Hurkacz in 3

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WWW: Djokovic vs. Hurkacz?

29 Comments on Madrid QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Alcaraz, Djokovic vs. Hurkacz

  1. I think that fall may have been more serious. Alcazar’s level had dropped before he fell. But since the fall he seems to be shaky. The commies noticed that Alcazar seemed to wobble on his left foot when he was serving. He is not playing at all like he was.
    .

  2. If Alcaraz’s ankle is not OK, then I hope it’s Rafa who gets to the SF. A uninjured Rafa is > a injured Alcaraz, and I certainly don’t want an easy SF for Djoko.

  3. Mona, did you see Alcazar fall? He had to call the trainer. I think he hurt his ankle. Then they had this delay because someone on the crowd was in medical distress.

    But since Alcazar fell he hasn’t been the same.

  4. We’ll definitely bcoz that was quite a switch from the 62 set not that Rafa is not capable! Hope he is ok though it would be quite a shame if he gets injured!

  5. Well congrats to Alcaraz for the win. I hope he’s at 100% when facing Djoko in the SF. Not another walkover for Djoko please!

    The commentators talked as if beating Rafa on clay these days is still very big deal, when Rafa has been losing matches on clay more often than in the past.

    Djoko is playing better tennis than Rafa is now, so it would be tough for Alcaraz to beat him. I think Djoko will beat him in the SF and then goes on to win the title.

  6. I think the commies are disgusting and dreadful. Rafa has not had the success in Madrid that he has had in other clay court tournaments. This is where he can be vulnerable.

    Rafa got some match play. Now it’s on to Rome.

    • As the best player on clay ever shouldnt he cope with these high altitude conditions ?
      Its still clay . Indian Wells has very similar conditions which suit him well enough .
      But listening to the commies I thought it was silly to even suggest Alcatraz was the favourite for RG.

  7. These commies making Alcaraz French Open favourite based on this win. Tch Tch.

    How quickly do people forget what Nadal’s peak level looks like? This was not even close. Sure, Alcaraz is great and like I have been saying for a while he has a hugeee career ahead of him but, Rafa ain’t gonna let him steal the French open.

    To me it is Rafa, Novak and Alcaraz in that order for RG.

    • VR,

      Thank you! Always reasonable with great common sense. I almost gagged when the tennis channel commies said he would be the front runner for RG! What? Are they kidding? So desperate to find their next big thing.

      Your top three are spot on. Novak isn’t going anywhere either. He seems to be getting into good form now. He certainly would not take kindly to being passed over for Alcaraz. Not with his giant ego!

      Rafa was never going to win this. He hit what he needed from it. No sense risking injury and playing Novak. Anyone who thinks Rafa was evenly close to his best in this match is drinking koolaid!

      The commies have forgotten what Rafa’s peak looks like for sure! If Rafa was not coming back from injury he could have won it.

      • NNY, yes exactly. But it happens so often that these pundits misread situations. Of his 13 RG titles, there have been many a times Rafa was not put as the no.1 favourite. Fine, he doesn’t care and neither should we. But, for instance, can you really not see Rafa not not being able to attack with his forehand and counter attack with good length? How many more matches do you need to see to judge that a player isn’t playing anywhere near their top level?

        There was a time Rafa had 2 winners against 20 from Alcaraz. Yeah sure, I’ll quit watching the sport if you see anything remotely similar in RG.

        Alcaraz is a big contender and CAN win RG. It is a no brainer that the favourite is a 13 time champion with 100+ wins.

        I’ll do a breakdown of Rafa vs Alcaraz match-up to discuss how they stack up against each other.

        • Alcaraz is being ‘hyped’. Part of it is his management company. Part of it is that tennis desperately needs a new young star. None of the contenders so far have really worked out. Thiem won ONE slam with the Big Three awol, and promptly hit the skids for the next two years. Medvedev won ONE against a tired and disgruntled Djokovic. That’s the NextGen slam total to date and neither of the two can be considered ‘young’ any more. In tennis terms they’re middle aged.

          I hate all the Alcaraz hype. It’s not doing the kid any favors in the long run. Maybe he’ll be great, but he’s not there yet and he’s got a lot of work to do to get there. I expect Djokovic to work him over in the semi.

          • Ramara,

            I agree with you. Ultimately, the hyoe is not doing the kid any favors.He has more work to do. The way the commies on the tennis channel were going on about him, you would think he could walk on water!

            I also agree that the NextGen has not exactly thrilled everyone.

        • VR,

          I would love to see a breakdown of these two! People are acting like Alcaraz can do no wrong, but I don’t think he is invincible.

          You know as you said Rafa is a 13 time champion at RG, that brought it home for me. No one can come close to what Rafa has achieved at RG. As long as Rafa is playing, he will be the favorite at RG. I know it doesn’t matter to him. But he has earned it.

          I would be interested to know your thoughts on the state of Rafa’s game, if you think he can get to his peak level for RG.

          • Firstly, Alcaraz is a giant.Honestly the moment I saw him against Berettini this year, I was totally convinced he’ll be a slam contender going forward and will challenge many records in the future (barring major injuries).

            He certainly isn’t invincible but yeah it is true he doesn’t have any gaping holes either.

            Rafa will be fine. He was just struggling to control his spinny forehands. In these high altitude conditions, topspin shots travel deeper so he was perhaps conscious not to make errors and give his shots better margin by going CC and shorter (not always intentionally but instinctively). His flatter backhand worked pretty well for most part.

            Normally when he is in the groove, he can adapt quicker but coming to the court without any tennis for 4 weeks is tricky.

            He’ll come out much stronger in Rome.

  8. Rafa got 3 matches.. Madrid is not his ground to judge his form.. He will be fine as long as the foot and rib are fine..:-)

    Very rarely madrid winners go deep in RG.

  9. The rib is fine but what about the foot ? Hearing conflicting opinions on twitter…hearing rafa was just on fumes..

    I’m least bothered abt the loss. I’m just worried abt injury

  10. Congratulations to Carlos!!! Wishing him the best for the rest of the tourney!!

    Rafa”s loss here is no big deal to me!!! What’s important is that he got match play and it says nothing about his chances at RG. Most times Rafa has lost and still won RG. As long as he is healthy and paces himself he’s the favorite for RG. And for me truth be told, I really want Rafa to win another Wimby!!! I think for me that would be the ultimate icing on the cake!!! Winning RG is really not here or there for me, I want another Wimby!!!! So now I can sit up and relax bcoz I no longer have a horse in this race. Vamos!!

  11. I think rafa could be seeded 5 at RG. It’s a race between him and tsitsi for no 4. Tsitsi will start with a minimum 100 point advantage as he is defending qf from last year vs rafa defending win points.

    5 is not bad..u avoid alcaraz in qf for sure . The issue is u can draw Novak in qf which will be bad..if he avoids Novak or tsitsi in qf..he is good

  12. Alcaraz hit many winners but he also made many errors. He’s playing very aggressive tennis and the Madrid court plays more like a HC so it suits him well. He was struggling to beat his opponents at Barcelona when three of his matches went the distance.

    I do think that had Rafa not suffered a lapse in concentration in his match with Goffin, and won the match in straight sets instead of three sets, he would be more confident coming into this QF.

    In some ways Kecmanovic hits his shots like Alcaraz, hitting hard and with depth (he almost beat Alcaraz at Miami!) and Rafa was able to handle those shots. Rafa was hitting some excellent BHs in that Goffin match (if I’m not wrong), sadly he couldnt do the same in the QF, and was relying heavily on his CC FH instead.

    Rafa’s lethal FHDTL, solid BH and good serve were no where to be found in the QF. If Alcaraz didn’t fall and hurt his ankle in set two, perhaps he could have won the match in straight sets. Alcaraz was back to his aggressive self in set three and Rafa simply had no answer for that!

    Against Alcaraz, Rafa has to play his aggressive tennis to have a chance to beat him; playing a defensive game (and at a defensive court position way behind the baseline) is not going to do the job.

  13. But the qn is why did Rafa not play well…why did he not produce the fh dtl ,the bh n serve ..was he too tired ? If it’s that ,it’s ok.

    I hope it’s not something else

  14. Well, the question is why Rafa’s game deteriorated so much in the lay-off time? He was playing great tennis on HC, beating Alcaraz in IW while playing with injury.
    Hope Rafa’s level improve in Rome sufficiently for RG! And I do think Rafa lacking confidence plays am important role..
    Vamos Champ!

  15. It’s more to do with lack of confidence, as he’s coming back from injury, and also lack of match play.

    I don’t think there’s anything wrong with his game, when he could play well against Kecmanovic and Goffin, but with lapses of concentration when serving for the match.

    Against Alcaraz, I think he’s too tentative, partly because he’s aware how good Alcaraz is. I do feel the three hour match Vs Goffin had taken a toll on him, he’s hitting his FH short, and not hitting too many BHs (when against Goffin, he hit some of his best BHs CC and DTL!). He went FHCC most of the times and hardly hit the FH DTL. It’s not an excuse for losing to Alcaraz, it’s just that Rafa needs his confidence in order to play well (even on clay his fave surface).

  16. We must remember Rafa is 36, coming from injury and has other underlying issues like his foot, knee etc. Plus he also has tremendous pressure on him to always deliver especially on clay, and his reputation as “difficult to beat” always makes him a target!! Players come hard and strong at him playing inspired tennis so it’s not a miracle that sometimes Rafa succumbs!!!! I don’t always expect him to win especially on clay particularly at this point in his career!

    Every year I hear ppl say look, Oh how I wish that Rafa could win AO and Wimby at least one more time, but we also expect him to be able to win FO as well!!! Cmon!!! I no longer have these expectations from Rafa!! If he wins FO, all well and good but we can’t expect him then to go on and win Wimby AND the US open AND AO!!! Me, as much as I hate to c Rafa lose, I am not stressing over FO anymore!!! Before he retires I would live for Rafa to win Wimby, and if it means he has to forfeit FO to do it, so be it!!!! Rafa continues to amaze every time he comes on the court, I am always proud of him, win or lose (even if I get mad), but my expectations of him can’t be what it was when he was a teenager or at his prime!! I have come to learn to accept this!! Vamos, my champ!!

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