Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka clash in a compelling quarterfinal showdown at the Madrid Masters on Friday. Meanwhile, defending champion Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas meet in the battle of the young guns.
(2) Rafael Nadal vs. Stan Wawrinka
Stan Wawrinka has beaten Rafael Nadal on one of the biggest stages of tennis in the final of the Australian Open (2014). Yet despite that impressive victory, this has generally been an unkind matchup for the Swiss. The two men have already played 20 times already and Wawrinka has won just three of those encounters. He has lost four in a row to Nadal.
Nadal is still looking for the kind of devastating form that he has long enjoyed on his best surface. The Spaniard played uncharacteristically poor tennis to go down in the Monte-Carlo semis to Fabio Fognini. His form improved considerably at his home club in Barcelona, but he ran into a red-hot Dominic Thiem, who also dispatched him in the semis. Nadal has been solid this week, with a particularly strong showing in the third round against American Frances Tiafoe.
Wawrinka for his part has had a long, slow road to recovery. The three-time slam champion was ranked outside the top 100 as recently as last August, struggling to return to form after knee surgery. He made the final in Rotterdam earlier this season, which helped bump his ranking to No. 34 in the world.
Given Nadal’s performance at the tail end of Barcelona and so far this week, he will be the clear favorite. His last meeting with Wawrinka, an entertaining affair in a night match in Toronto, was closely contested. Nadal just squeaked out the win in a second-set ‘breaker. This could be a real treat of a match.
Cheryl pick: Nadal in 2
Ricky pick: Nadal in 3
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(3) Alexander Zverev vs. (8) Stefanos Tsitsipas
The two top seeds in the third section of the draw face off in a NextGen quarterfinal showdown. Alexander Zverev will take on Stefanos Tsitsipas for a spot in the Madrid quarterfinals. Of the two players, Tsitispas is in slightly better form. The Greek captured his first clay court-title in Estoril last week and has a semifinal showing in Melbourne and another title in Marseille to show for his 2019 efforts.
Zverev has come up a bit short on dirt in 2019. Until this week, the German had won no more than a single match at the four clay-court events he entered. He has performed better this week, ousting David Ferrer and Hubert Hurkacz. Still, he hasn’t played anyone yet who is as in-form as Tsitsipas.
These two have split wins at one each. Zverev won their first encounter in Washington last year, while Tsitispas returned the favor in Toronto in a sloppy mess of a match. Zverev has the added benefit of being the defending champion in Madrid, a court that clearly suits his game.
Cheryl pick: Zverev in 3
Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 2
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WWW?
Rafa in two; Tsitsipas in two or three sets.
Rafa and Thiem in 2.
I hate to be THAT guy, Cheryl/Ricky, but…. it was 2014 AO, not 2013. 🤓
my b
and thanks!
Nadal picked up his form considerably against Tiafoe, who played pretty well but not in the big points. I’d say Rafa is still maybe 80% of his all time best. It may not be enough against Wawrinka, who is showing signs of his former best self. He is crunching serves and ground-strokes, and has had three impressive matches here. Stan in 3.
Same old same old from Joe – Joe said he had a feeling Fed may beat Thiem this time, when Fed had to get out of jail against an erratic Monfils; and Rafa beat Tiafoe relatively comfortably and yet, he’s going to lose to Stan!
I give Rafa a better chance of beating Stan than Fed beating Thiem!
The bias by joe shows when rafa is picked to lose against stan on Rafa’s fav surface but fed is picked to win against thiem on thiems fav surface n feds weakest.
I mean anything van hapoen but the bias…ufff
You said it, Sanju. I was going to say the same. And the best part is he claims that he is objective and not a Fedtard😜 and then also has the gall to wonder why Nadal fans are so biased. But anyway keep going, Trollsmith
👍vmk1 and Sanju!
So what if I am picking Nadal to lose? (Btw, I said Thiem is the slight favorite against Fed). Why is that biased? Stan has been playing great lately, Nadal not so much even if he looked much better against Tiafoe. It’s not like I’m predicting Stan to blow him out in straight sets.
My main complaint against Nadal fans is that they look for any excuse under the sun when he loses, as if when he’s playing well he’s unbeatable. If that was ever true on clay, it’s not anymore. He’s not the same player, that’s the objective truth. To be sure, Fed is not either.
Joe, Fed almost lost to an erratic Monfils, and Thiem is so much more consistent than Monfils, and he’s playing very good tennis on clay at the moment, what make you feel that Fed may beat Thiem now?
And, you’re always hopeful that someone may beat Rafa on clay, and to you Rafa at 80% on clay is beatable by anyone! Whilst a Fed who hasn’t done much on clay, you still have the feeling that he may beat Thiem the red hot player on clay now! If that’s not biased, then what is???
Stan is not ‘anyone’; his best is right up there with Nadal’s, imo. I picked Nadal to win his last two matches, against FAA and Tiafoe, even though he hadn’t showed much evidence of good play. So I don’t think ‘anyone’ can beat Nadal even at 80%.
Regarding Fed, yes, Monfils is erratic, but when’s he’s redlining he’s a tough out for anyone. Fed did bagel him in the first set, in case you’ve forgotten. After that, Monf raised his game considerably, and Fed declined a bit. No doubt he was helped out by Monf’s double faults, but Fed played very gutsy tennis when he faced those match points. He deserved to win that match.
Again, I think Thiem is a slight favorite against Fed, but I think a lot of people are badly under-rating Fed on clay just because he hasn’t played on the surface for a few years. But you always talk about how Rafa needs matches under his belt to gain confidence. Don’t you think the same applies to Federer on clay? That he may get better with each match as he gets more comfortable? He’s number 2 in the face to London and has lost two matches all year after all. Give him some credit.
Troll
A random guy named ‘Anonymous’ calls one of most regular posters on this site a troll. Nice one.
As if you’ve given Rafa enough credit, Joe! Please, it’s obvious you’re always giving Rafa’s opponents, anybody, more credit than they deserved, against Rafa. And, you’re giving Fed more credit than he deserves, against anyone.
As I’ve mentioned Monfils was erratic, hence he could go from losing a set 0-6 to winning the next set. It’s the same with his match against Fucsovics in the previous round, lost the first set 1-6, and then came back to win the match in three. Monfils had MPs against Fed but failed to take them.
It’s not like Fed was playing lights out tennis, neither was Monfils. Monfils was feeling the physical strain in the third set, as usual with him. Thiem however is very fit, and he could hit hard the whole day! I doubt Thiem would make the kind of mistakes that Monfils had.
I’ve not given Rafa enough credit? I’ve picked him to win in every match this clay season except for the two that he lost. I think that’s pretty good picking, myself. I think it’s more like the Rafa-worshiping fans on this site can’t bear anyone saying something against Nadal.
If Nadal and Thiem do meet in the final in Madrid, I’d like to see one single well-known Nadal fan on this site predict that Thiem will win. I doubt it will happen.
Nope, Joe you’re wrong. If Thiem is able to beat Fed, then Djoko and meet Rafa in the final, I’ll say he’ll have a good chance of beating Rafa; unless of course Rafa plays lights out tennis from now on to beat his opponents to reach the final, and Thiem has to struggle to beat Fed and then Djoko.
If both plays lights out tennis, then I’ll say Thiem has a good chance of beating Rafa, because Rafa hasn’t beaten Thiem yet this clay season and may have doubts in his head. If Thiem manages to beat Fed, Djoko and Rafa to win here, I’ll make him the hot favourite to win at RG, regardless of how he does in Rome next.
After all, how many players have beaten all three of them in one tournament?
One guy, ever, and in this tournament: David Nalbandian in Madrid, 2007.
Right, but that’s on indoor HCs. I mean, beating Rafa on clay in the final after beating Fed and Djoko, never heard of. If Thiem can achieve that, then he should be considered the hot favourite to win at RG.
From a non-biased point of view Joe, it does come across as if you always downplay Rafa’s chances in any match, on any surface, and even if you don’t outright predict against him, you’re very quick to highlight when Rafa isn’t at his best, almost as if your desire to see him lose somewhat clouds your objectivity a bit. If Rafa had played the exact same match against Monfils that Fed did yesterday, you’d be emphasising how week Rafa is looking and how vulnerable he’ll be going forward, and how bad it was he faced MPs after bagelling him in the first set. Yet because it’s Fed, you only focus on the positives and believe he has a strong shot against Thiem. Whereas if Rafa crushes an opponent, like RBA in Monte Carlo, you’ll still focus on negatives. It just seems disingenuous.
I don’t logically see how you’re convinced Rafa, the greatest clay player ever who has been the most dominant player on clay by far the past two years, is likely to lose to Wawrinka off the back of two straight set wins, yet Fed, who hasn’t played on clay in three years before this event, is likely to beat Thiem (who is playing better than Stan) off the back of an unconvincing match against Monfils. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but I fail to see how Fed is more likely to beat an inform Thiem on clay than Nadal, despite the loss in Barcelona.
Well, Arthur, I don’t pretend to be totally unbiased. My take on Fed is that he has been playing so well, and this is a fairly fast surface, that I thought he had a chance against Thiem -which he obviously did. I think I was right about that one (remember, I did say Thiem was the slight favorite; I just couldn’t understand people saying that Thiem would crush Fed). What was your prediction in the Fed-Thiem match?
Regarding Nadal-Stan, I think Wawrinka at his best (RG 2015 and a couple other matches at AO) can play with anyone. In theory, that includes Nadal on clay, though he hasn’t shown it. As I said, I got that one wrong. Even then, and as I said previously, I didn’t predict that Stan would crush Rafa; I picked him in 3 sets and I wouldn’t have put a huge amount of confidence in it.
This site is so full of Rafa fans, that I’m sure I stand out like a sore thumb. I analyze his matches from his opponents’ point of view, whom I usually want to win. So I inherit all of the biases that go with that. But they’re the same sorts of biases Rafans on this site display, believe me. They’re just in the other direction, so they stand out.
Ricky:
“Stan Wawrinka has beaten Rafael Nadal on one of the biggest stages of tennis in the final of the Australian Open (2014).”
Interesting though it might sound, the world and his wife know that Rafa suffered a back injury during the warm-up to that match, an injury which plagued the rest of his season, along with wrist injury.
Joe Smith MAY 10, 2019 AT 7:14 AM
“If Nadal and Thiem do meet in the final in Madrid, I’d like to see one single well-known Nadal fan on this site predict that Thiem will win. I doubt it will happen.”
In the last two years, Thiem beat Rafa before RG and got slated by Nadal at RG.
2017
Rome
Thiem beat Nadal 64 63
Roland Garros
Nadal beat Thiem 63 64 60
2018
Madrid
Thiem beat Nadal 75 63
Roland Garros
Nadal beat Thiem 64 63 62
I wasn’t talking about RG; I was talking about the Madrid final, should Nadal and Thiem meet in it.
However, if Rafa fails to win either Madrid or Rome, I don’t see how he can be considered the favorite at RG. He may have won the tournament 11 times, but never when he failed to win a clay warm-up.
No one cares who is CONSIDERED favourite. That’s just whistling in the wind.
It’s just another way of saying that Nadal won’t be the favorite to win RG if he fails to win any clay warm-up event.
It irrelevant who anyone thinks is the favourite. Rafa has never bought into being the favourite or not. Picking favourites is a waste of time.
yes he will
I was going to say Rafa has always been the favourite at RG,something drastic would need to happen for that to change
No Rafa will pick him to lose Madrid ,if he’s anywhere near his best.
But should he lose,detailed analysis of why he wasn’t at his best will follow.
What’s there to analyse anymore, when this is the third tournament he played on clay this season? If he still couldn’t win or reach the final here, then he hasn’t and maybe couldn’t find his top level of play on clay!
IMO, Rafa will never play at his 2017 level on clay again this season (and he was truly amazing during RG and MC that year, could be at a level unreachable by him again) so even if he’s able to play ‘lights out’ tennis(in current context) now, it may not be enough to beat Thiem, if Thiem plays like he did at Barcelona, or even better.
Judging by how Rafa is playing now, (he seems to waiver now and then, a bit shaky during his matches, unlike the Rafa in the past who was able to sustain a high level throughout a match), I doubt Rafa could raise his level that much higher than how he’s playing now. Unless Thiem couldn’t play at or better than his Barcelona level, I think Thiem could beat Rafa on clay again in 2019.
I won’t jump into conclusion that Theim would surely beat Rafa at the FO or vice versa, it also depends on how they play and how the draw pens out.
If Rafa reaches the final here and loses to Thiem (or whoever),its because his opponent plays better than him, full stop. If he’s able to reach the final, that means he’s playing well so if he loses, he’s just not good enough to beat his opponent.
Interesting to see if he can ever be beaten on clay at his very best by whoever.
Or if he will ever be at his very best again…we’ll see.
We’ve already seen that, when Rafa was at his best, at 2008 and 2017 FO and MC2010; no one could beat him, or took a set off him, when he’s playing that way. And, he was giving out bagels and breadsticks along the way.
If Rafa stays injury free and builds up a momentum we will see Rafa at his best again. He’s comeback from knee injury since IW; he is now trying to get his rhythm back.
Rafa is the last one to take any player for granted no matter how many times he’s beaten them (17-3 in this case) so let’s wait and see. Every match is a new contest; it doesn’t matter what happened in the past.
rafa in 2; Zv in 2.
Call me old-fashioned, but in my book being a fan of a particular player means you root for him through thick and thin. Rafa is one of the most modest players out there and has never succumbed to that air of entitlement one sees in other players. Increasingly many commentators for his matches give the impression of relishing watching him battling against the up and coming younger players.
Thiem is a ball basher. It either works or it doesn’t. He’s 25 now, if he was such a clay genius, he would have a few big clay titles to his name now if we compare him to Rafa at the same age. So let’s stop talking Rafa down. He’s been dealing with injury and fitness since 2012, hardly playing a full season.
All Rafa’s losses are amplified and doom is predicted whilst all Fed’s and Djoko’s losses are soon forgotten.
Nads
Exactly. You’ve hit the nail on the head
Yeah, Im watching Fed vs Thiem now. It’s obvious that his court craft, while he’s getting better, is still not there yet with the top guys.
Fed is using his court craft to counter Thiem’s big hitting; it’s obvious to me Thiem doesn’t have that kind of shot selection ability to counter Fed’s aggression. Thiem isn’t playing at his Barcelona level, probably because at Madrid, he feels rushed by Fed’s aggression. At Barcelona when the court is slower, he’s able to impose his hard hitting and aggressive game on Rafa when Rafa wasn’t playing his best tennis and was basically doing all the defending with ineffective counter attacking.
Thiem is still not so great on quicker surfaces when it comes to facing more aggressive attacking players, like Fed and Sasha.
Have to say Congratulations to Stefanos Tsitsipas making the SF in Madrid. And to Sascha Zverev, sorry for you loss, and I know you can do better.
So it’s going to be Tsitsipas vs ? (Rafa or Thiem) for the other SF. 😀
Oops….what am I trying to say? sheesh
Rafa or Stan for the SF. Novak has to play Thiem
Congrats to Kiki Bertens making the Madrid Final 2 years in a row. Halep had to fight hard to beat Belinda Bencic. Kiki had the easier win.
Good Luck, Simona!
Stan making the same mistake he did in RG, playing tenatively. He has to go for his shots and if he misses he misses. Rallying on clay against Nadal makes no sense. Here’s hoping that Wawa can pick up his game.
Rafa puts “doubt in Stan’s mind” (Stan’s words, not mine). What are you gonna do? Btw, Stan DID miss a LOT. Check out his winner:error stat. Also Rafa’s natural defensive game, which he said was missing at the AO, is coming along nicely.
If you can believe the Tennis Channel commies Roger has not confirmed for Rome yet. Hope he does, Fedal is always fun.
If fed withdraws will Dom take his place so that he is not in same quarter as Rafa?
Don’t really know, but I doubt it. Lucky loser?
I was thinking about that (ie Rafa’s defensive game) too while watching the match. I hope that Rafa will now add in his aggression (of AO this year) going forward and have his defence plus aggression working well together.
He needs both to beat all these dangerous opponents whether its on clay or non clay surfaces. Rafa looked determined, and he’s starting to serve well again, esp his second serves. I hope he keeps improving and be ready for both his Rome and RG title defence, and of course hope he wins here too.
Yep, that’s exactly what Stan looks like to me: someone with doubt in his mind. He should take a look at how his compatriot has dealt with that against Nadal the last few years. If he could banish that doubt and play his game the scoreline would be much closer.
Joe Smith MAY 10, 2019 AT 8:27 PM
“Stan making the same mistake he did in RG, playing tenatively. He has to go for his shots and if he misses he misses. Rallying on clay against Nadal makes no sense. Here’s hoping that Wawa can pick up his game.”
ROFL
Why is that funny? Because I’m cheering for Stan?
Because you think Stan is not giving his all.
When did Joe say he’s not giving his all? He simply said that he thinks Stan needs to go for his shots more and be more aggressive. Isn’t the the way that anyone has to play if they want to have a chance at beating Rafa on clay? That’s the way that Thiem has had success against Rafa. Rafa obviously makes it difficult to be able aggressive which is why it’s so hard to beat him on clay, but that doesn’t mean Stan can’t be more aggressive than he has been.
Kevin MAY 10, 2019 AT 8:42 PM
“When did Joe say he’s not giving his all? He simply said that he thinks Stan needs to go for his shots more and be more aggressive.”
In other words he’s not giving his all. He’s being as aggressive as he can and he is going for his shots.
Don’t worry- admitting that Stan could be adjusting the way he’s playing doesn’t mean that Rafa isn’t kicking his ass. When Rafa is losing a match, we say he needs to make adjustments. Why can’t we say this for other players when they’re losing?
Of course you can. But I think Stan is doing the best he can.
You are so kind and reasonable, Kevin. Stan definitely needs adjustments. I say he did well to beat PHH, Pella, and Kei Nishikori.
His weapons are rusty. but his serve is improving in this game – he might hold here.
That’s about all folks. Stan got 3 games. For Rafa it was shooting fish in a barrel.
Rafa will get more competition from Stefanos, I think.
Wow! Rafa is being a beast tonight
Emphatic! 61 62
NID
Vamos Rafa!