Roger Federer survived two match points against Gael Monfils and now faces another tough clay-court test against Dominic Thiem on Friday in Madrid. Quarterfinal action also includes a showdown between Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic.
(4) Roger Federer vs. (5) Dominic Thiem
Federer and Thiem will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this spring when they battle for a place in the Mutua Madrid Open semifinals on Friday. Thiem pulled ahead 3-2 in the head-to-head series with a 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 upset in the Indian Wells final two months ago. That victory was the Austrian’s third on three different surfaces against Federer, having previously prevailed 7-6(2), 6-4 on the red clay of Rome in 2016 and 3-6, 7-6(7), 6-4 shortly thereafter on the Stuttgart grass. Federer took care of Thiem without any trouble in their first two hard-court encounters at the 2016 Brisbane event and at the Nitto ATP Finals last fall.
If the 37-year-old Swiss was a considerable favorite to triumph at the Indian Wells Masters, the script is flipped in Madrid. Whereas he had not played on clay since 2016 prior to beating Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils earlier this week, Thiem has been one of the best dirtballers in the world over the past few seasons. The French Open runner-up lifted the trophy in Barcelona two weeks ago before taking out Reilly Opelka and recent Monte-Carlo champion Fabio Fognini so far in Madrid. Conditions at this event suit Thiem perfectly and he will likely control more than enough of these clay-court rallies to send Federer packing for his first trip to Roland Garros since 2015.
Pick: Thiem in 2
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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Marin Cilic
Both Djokovic and Cilic have picked up some much-needed wins this week and one will take another important step into the semifinals on Friday, when they collide for the 20th time in their careers. Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 17-2, with only two of their meetings having come on clay. The top-ranked Serb got the job done 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(2), 6-4 at the 2014 French Open and 6-0, 6-3 one year later in Monte-Carlo. Cilic scored upsets in 2016 (Paris Masters) and 2018 (Queen’s Club) but has since lost three more in a row at the hands of his nemesis.
It has been a dreadful season so far for Cilic, who was saddled with a 4-6 record before picking up Madrid victories over Martin Klizan, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Laslo Djere–all in three sets. Djokovic has struggled since bulldozing everything his path at the Australian Open, but he is through to the quarters this week thanks to straight-set defeats of Taylor Fritz and Jeremy Chardy. Expect another routine day at the office for the No. 1 seed, as his opponent is still short on confidence and perhaps feeling the effects of three three-setters.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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If anything it’s Thiem who choked, when he was having so many more BP chances than Fed, but couldn’t convert most.
This court suits Fed’s style of play, he came out serving well from the get go, no wonder he’s winning the first set against his opponents easily. Had he been five or ten years younger and playing like this, he would’ve beaten this Thiem comfortably.
This match went much as I thought it might. Fed was in control in the 1st set mainly because he served lights out, was very aggressive, and didn’t let Thiem get any rhythm. Fed had his chance to win the match at 8-7 in the TB, went for it on the return and missed by inches. Even in the 3rd set when Thiem was really starting to belt the ball, Fed didn’t give up, and he was playing pretty well until the end. The big difference, imo, is that his serve had dropped off and he wasn’t coming into the net as regularly. Hard to hang with Thiem from the baseline, though Fed didn’t do too badly even in that regard. There is no doubt in my mind that a 25 year old Fed with this racquet would win this match handily.
Well done to Dominic! He wasn’t at his best today, but played well in the big points toward the end. I think he has to be the favorite over Novak. Until the latter shows some return to form, he deserves to be the underdog to Thiem on this surface.
I’m glad to hear that Fed went for it on break point and just missed. Even though it’s not the safest way to play, he can’t play safe against the top guys these days, especially on clay. The match did go just how I thought, although I didn’t think that Fed would come that close to winning without winning. I pray that Thiem isn’t too worn out tomorrow. He’s going to need his highest level to take down a Djokovic who is significantly more well-rested than him. There’s no question that Thiem can win this tournament, but it’s going to be extremely hard. If we assume Rafa makes the Final, that means that Thiem would have to beat The Big 3, back-to-back-to-back. Has that even been ever before?? I know that Nalbandian has beaten the three of them in one tournament, but was it consecutively?