After a couple of top 10 players missed the Masters 1000 event in Monte-Carlo, the gang’s all here for the Mutua Madrid Open. Novak Djokovic leads the way as the top seed, looking to make amends for a shocking loss right at the start of his Monte-Carlo campaign. With Rafael Nadal on the opposite side of the draw, a Djokovic-Nadal final is possible. The Spaniard is 2-for-2 so far during this clay-court swing (won both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona). Roger Federer and defending champion Andy Murray both find themselves in Nadal’s half of the bracket.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 4,771,360 Euros
Points: 1000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Andy Murray
Draw analysis: Djokovic is on a one-match losing streak as he heads into Madrid. And, yes, by his recent standards just a single setback constitutes a losing streak. The world No. 1 dropped his Monte-Carlo opener from completely out of nowhere against Jiri Vesely, and he now awaits either Nicolas Almagro or Borna Coric. Neither man is the easiest of second-round opponents, with Almagro possibly being an especially difficult out. The Spaniard will be playing in front of a home crowd and he is coming off a title in Estoril. Potential quarterfinal adversaries for Djokovic are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic, who could be particularly dangerous in high altitude. Raonic reached the quarterfinals last year before bowing out to Murray.
As a whole, the top half of the bracket is not as intriguing on paper as its counterpart. That being said, the Stan Wawrinka-Kei Nishikori quarter also hosts Gael Monfils, Nick Kyrgios, Fabio Fognini, recent Bucharest winner Fernando Verdasco, Munich champion Philipp Kohlschreiber, and the return of Kevin Anderson. If Kyrgios advances out of round one, the 21-year-old Aussie is line to face Wawrinka in what will always be a mouth-watering matchup. The winner of that showdown could run into either Monfils or Kohlschreiber in the last 16.
The story in the bottom half, of course, is that Nadal and Federer could renew their rivalry in the quarterfinals. Outcomes of their clay-court battles are often foregone conclusions, especially given that Nadal appears to be in the midst of a resurrection, but Madrid may be the one setting at which Federer has at least some chance of an upset on the slow stuff. Before that contest can come to fruition, Federer will likely have to hold off Dominic Thiem in the third round. Thiem, though, finds himself in a wildly entertaining 16th of the bracket that also includes Juan Martin Del Potro, Benoit Paire, and Jack Sock. A favorable draw for Nadal will see the four-time champion open against either Andrey Kuznetsov or Viktor Troicki.
Perhaps nobody has a more benign road through Madrid—at least until the semis—than Murray. His nearest top-8 seed is Berdych, whose 2016 campaign has been lackluster at best. The second-ranked Scot will kick off his title defense against either Radek Stepanek or Vasek Pospisil, with neither player looking anywhere close to a serious threat at the moment. The only men in this section who absolutely love clay are David Ferrer and Pablo Carreno Busta. Ferrer is rusty because of physical problems and Carreno Busta is coming off a long week in Estoril, where he finished runner-up to Almagro. Grigor Dimitrov, Carreno Busta’s first-round foe, cannot be considered a factor after the madness that transpired in Istanbul this past week.
First-round upset alert: (Q) Lucas Pouille over (12) David Goffin. While Goffin may have a slight edge, an upset is by no means out of the question. The 12th-seeded Belgian is coming off a quarterfinal loss to Alexander Zverev in Munich. Pouille, meanwhile, already has two qualifying matches under his belt that should have acclimated him to Madrid conditions. Neither result was overly impressive, but the 22-year-old Frenchman continued his winning ways all the same. He owns 11 ATP-level match victories this season, one of which came at Goffin’s expense in Brisbane (7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3).
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Gael Monfils, Nicolas Almagro, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Fernando Verdasco, Andrey Kuznetsov, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Lucas Pouille
Cold: Roger Federer, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Thomaz Bellucci, Kevin Anderson, Denis Istomin, Ivo Karlovic, Radek Stepanek, Vasek Pospisil
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori over Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal over Roger Federer, and Andy Murray over Tomas Berdych
Semifinals: Djokovic over Nishikori and Nadal over Murray
Final: Djokovic over Nadal
[polldaddy poll=9404018]
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
who ya got?
Wanna see first how Rafa navigates his way through the draw…. he must be absolutely on fire going into the final if he is to win this.
Can’t wait! Tennis is beginning to get more interesting…esp if Rafa can build on his momentum
How can it be interesting when one man wins virtually every major title on clay for over 10 years? Only interesting for Rafans you should say.
Because his winning on clay is strongly linked to how well he performs on other surfaces. I hope that helps..
Interesting that Ricky predicted Raonic to get through to the quarterfinals to meet Novak, rather than Tsonga. Murray does have by far the easiest draw.
I can see Rafa and Fed meeting this time in the quarterfinals. Even though this surface would give Fed a fighting chance as Ricky said, I still like Rafa’s chances given that he’s in much better form right now.
Ricky also picked Nishi over Stan. Not all that surprising considering how Stan has looked of late.
I want to see how Rafa looks in his first one or two matches. Hopefully he can keep up the momentum and continue his winning ways.
Murray doesn’t have the easiest draw – that belongs to Djokovic!! Murray has a potential clash with Nadal, so how can THAT be easy!
Murray has by far the easiest draw until the semis
but yes, Djokovic’s is decent until the final (and it’s also easy in the final if for some reason he ends up playing Murray instead of Nadal)
Great analysis mate. I have Kneedal over Djoker in the finals.
P.S. is Goffin really that hot ATM and Dr Ivo that cold with such company as the Istomins? hehe
i mean Goffin made back to back Masters 1000 semis barely more than a month ago. Those carry over for a while.
Roger postponed his practice yesterday to today and he has cancelled today’s practice. He is due to give a presser in half an hour. I smell a withdrawal. Who will be the lucky loser?
I can’t remember the last time Ricky had Rafa down as ‘hot’. Ricky could you move Rafa into ‘cold’?
Federer has withdrawn with injury. Appears to be back injury.
Nadal now has to play Thiem instead of Federer
Thiem lost somewhere yesterday.
you mean last week
oh, yes in Munich
is Nadal playing on Tuesday
Ricky (AT 2:20 PM),
Yes.
Mutua Madrid Open: “On Tuesday…Nadal at 4 PM and Murray at 8 PM!”
https://twitter.com/MutuaMadridOpen/status/727067266852999168
Ben Rothenberg: ” Roger Federer withdraws from Madrid due to back injury. Had previously withdrawn from Rotterdam, Dubai, Indian Wells, and Miami this year.”
https://twitter.com/BenRothenberg/status/727125915281530884
what!!
Perhaps Roger is finding how hard it is to come back from an injury after spending time away…
And this is precisely the reason I said he is ‘undercooked’ and can lose to Thiem.
Yes, it appears that Fed is having his problems returning from injury. I also think that age is catching up with him.
Madrid conditions are fast which aren’t ideal for nole’s backboard game. Rafa can beat him here.
It’s the perfect opportunity to turn the tide before the French Open.
I pick the field over Nole here.
If Rafa plays just a little cleaner than April, he should win his third title in as many tries.
Rafa also finds it tougher to control the balls here… they often fly off his racket a tad more… his return gets affected a little too…
But I agree that the field stands a good chance against Novak here
Hawkeye,
I like your optimism regarding rafa’s chances in Madrid.
Maybe just wishful thinking nny. I think he’d also need Nole to not be at his best.
Nole did beat Rafa in 2011 and Nole is a better player now and Rafa was playing better in 2011 than he is recently.
We gonna see. Never underestimate Rafa.
Rafa’s forehand was not good in 2011 though…it lacked venom and was not changing direction often enough. They fixed this in 2012 and then Rafa’s forehand reached new heights in 2013 as the process continued… His forehand in 2011 was not aggressive enough for the 2011 Novak
Also, Rafa was struggling with some kind of burnout in 2011. He was able to beat everyone but Novak, who got Ingrid head. That was the year when Rafa lost to Novak in 3 straight slam finals.
yeah that too..
And, just look at his matches and you will see how kept over-attacking Novak’s backhand! He was used to the old patterns. He had to adjust which took some time…
Novak hasn’t quite answered the forehand DTL from Rafa when it’s been on absolute fire!
I meant to say – in his head! Stupid autocorrect!
I also agree that rafa’s forehand was not at its best that year. Not at 2013 level.
The bottom line is that Rafa won’t have to face Novak until the final. That is what I was hoping for. So he has s good shot to get to the final.
I like Nadal to win this, he’s on FIRE..
But seriously tonight how is Sam querry at 2.35 not beating Herbert who is 7-28 on clay.. What am I missing here !!
vr,
Yes, good points. That was when Rafa was still attacking novak’s backhand. He wouldn’t find the answers until the 2012 AO. That’s when he realized that he had to change his tactics and shot patterns against Novak.
Didn’t he start going after novak’s forehand when he played him at MC later in 2012? Wasn’t that where he turned the tide?
It’s also very true that Novak has not had the answer for rafa’s DTL forehand. That is why Rafa needs that shot to be working above all else against Novak. Perhaps the most formidable weapon in tennis!
good post NNY! He did change some pattern in AO 2012… Toni and Rafa also added more weight to the tip of his racket at the end of 2011 and Toni said they aim to hit more winners next year, esp against Novak. They diagnosed it right.
You are right that it was MC 2012 when he relentlessly started attacking novak’s forehand, starting from the serve. It was absurd how many serves he threw to novak’s forehand on both courts, about 70% or something.
His forehand DTL, esp on clay, is the most formidable weapon out there.
So sad that Fed is out….but I sure like Joker to win it all. He’ll be playing w/renewed passion and purpose!
agreed
Ricky, are you related to Scoot Dimon?
more like he’s related to me!
I do agree that Novak will come out motivated and determined to get a better result in Madrid. The conditions may be tougher for him at this tournament, but that applies to Rafa, too.
I am not going to assume anything with regard to Novak.
Fed was replaced by M.Granollers in the draw.
https://twitter.com/sotennis1/status/727144602927566849
I had Thiem beating Fed as I thought Fed would be rusty…seems I get it right to expect Thiem facing Rafa…still sad for Fed to withdraw due to injury…
Thiem hasn’t been playing great
Thiem has to get there first. I am not penciling him in for the quarterfinals just yet.
OOP for Tuesday:
http://www.protennislive.com/posting/2016/1536/op.pdf
QF:
Djoker over Tsonga
Stanimal over Nishikori
Rafa over Thiem
Murray over Berdych
SF:
Djoker over Stanimal
Rafa over Murray
Final:
Djoker over Rafa
I had the same picks as Ricky from QF on, but did wonder about Them over Federer whos now pulled out.Stan hasn’t played well but he wont want to lose to Kyrgios ..and especially not on clay.
Rafa will be fine regardless. Only Djokovic can beat him on clay now that he has got his mojo back.
Roger saw Rafa in his quarter. There is nothing wrong with his back. He chickened out.
There’s nothing from Djoko on clay this year that I see as formidable. To me, its the fear factor or his aura of invincibility that see him through even when he’s not playing well.
Of course if he reaches the final and finds Rafa there, he’ll certainly raise his level. It all depends on how Rafa feels on court, whether he’s still lacking in confidence when facing Djoko.
The way Rafa played against an on fire Kei at Barcelona, how he problem solve his way against such a tough opponent to win in the end, that would give Rafa much needed confidence in his own game and own abilities. Djoko will be his last hurdle and I feel Rafa will solve the Djoko problem, just like the way he did during 2012-2014.
He only played one measly match, of course you didn’t see anything!
very good point
Precisely! So I dont see how he can suddenly turned formidable!
I believe Novak to come out playing strong. There is no reason for him to not play well as he is rested and eager to play! It’s on Rafa to play great without donating his serves a lot to make it close and starts believing he could beat Nole. It takes strong and confident Rafa to stand a chance against Novak. The thing is, Novak plays more freely when facing Rafa than when having some hungry young gun on the other side of the net…
Thats the thing. Its not a sure thing that Novak would reach the final!
But did you see Nole’s draw? No young guns in his part of the draw except for Kyrgios who does nott feel like playing tennis atm…Nole easily handles those “veterans” who have no belief…
**except for Kyrgios who does nott feel like playing tennis atm**
ROFL. Priceless Nats. He looked decidedly vin ordinaire in Estoril last week.