After a couple of top 10 players missed the Masters 1000 event in Monte-Carlo, the gang’s all here for the Mutua Madrid Open. Novak Djokovic leads the way as the top seed, looking to make amends for a shocking loss right at the start of his Monte-Carlo campaign. With Rafael Nadal on the opposite side of the draw, a Djokovic-Nadal final is possible. The Spaniard is 2-for-2 so far during this clay-court swing (won both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona). Roger Federer and defending champion Andy Murray both find themselves in Nadal’s half of the bracket.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 4,771,360 Euros
Points: 1000
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Andy Murray
Draw analysis: Djokovic is on a one-match losing streak as he heads into Madrid. And, yes, by his recent standards just a single setback constitutes a losing streak. The world No. 1 dropped his Monte-Carlo opener from completely out of nowhere against Jiri Vesely, and he now awaits either Nicolas Almagro or Borna Coric. Neither man is the easiest of second-round opponents, with Almagro possibly being an especially difficult out. The Spaniard will be playing in front of a home crowd and he is coming off a title in Estoril. Potential quarterfinal adversaries for Djokovic are Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Milos Raonic, who could be particularly dangerous in high altitude. Raonic reached the quarterfinals last year before bowing out to Murray.
As a whole, the top half of the bracket is not as intriguing on paper as its counterpart. That being said, the Stan Wawrinka-Kei Nishikori quarter also hosts Gael Monfils, Nick Kyrgios, Fabio Fognini, recent Bucharest winner Fernando Verdasco, Munich champion Philipp Kohlschreiber, and the return of Kevin Anderson. If Kyrgios advances out of round one, the 21-year-old Aussie is line to face Wawrinka in what will always be a mouth-watering matchup. The winner of that showdown could run into either Monfils or Kohlschreiber in the last 16.
The story in the bottom half, of course, is that Nadal and Federer could renew their rivalry in the quarterfinals. Outcomes of their clay-court battles are often foregone conclusions, especially given that Nadal appears to be in the midst of a resurrection, but Madrid may be the one setting at which Federer has at least some chance of an upset on the slow stuff. Before that contest can come to fruition, Federer will likely have to hold off Dominic Thiem in the third round. Thiem, though, finds himself in a wildly entertaining 16th of the bracket that also includes Juan Martin Del Potro, Benoit Paire, and Jack Sock. A favorable draw for Nadal will see the four-time champion open against either Andrey Kuznetsov or Viktor Troicki.
Perhaps nobody has a more benign road through Madrid—at least until the semis—than Murray. His nearest top-8 seed is Berdych, whose 2016 campaign has been lackluster at best. The second-ranked Scot will kick off his title defense against either Radek Stepanek or Vasek Pospisil, with neither player looking anywhere close to a serious threat at the moment. The only men in this section who absolutely love clay are David Ferrer and Pablo Carreno Busta. Ferrer is rusty because of physical problems and Carreno Busta is coming off a long week in Estoril, where he finished runner-up to Almagro. Grigor Dimitrov, Carreno Busta’s first-round foe, cannot be considered a factor after the madness that transpired in Istanbul this past week.
First-round upset alert: (Q) Lucas Pouille over (12) David Goffin. While Goffin may have a slight edge, an upset is by no means out of the question. The 12th-seeded Belgian is coming off a quarterfinal loss to Alexander Zverev in Munich. Pouille, meanwhile, already has two qualifying matches under his belt that should have acclimated him to Madrid conditions. Neither result was overly impressive, but the 22-year-old Frenchman continued his winning ways all the same. He owns 11 ATP-level match victories this season, one of which came at Goffin’s expense in Brisbane (7-6(5), 4-6, 6-3).
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Gael Monfils, Nicolas Almagro, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Fernando Verdasco, Andrey Kuznetsov, Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Lucas Pouille
Cold: Roger Federer, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Thomaz Bellucci, Kevin Anderson, Denis Istomin, Ivo Karlovic, Radek Stepanek, Vasek Pospisil
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori over Stan Wawrinka, Rafael Nadal over Roger Federer, and Andy Murray over Tomas Berdych
Semifinals: Djokovic over Nishikori and Nadal over Murray
Final: Djokovic over Nadal
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
Coric, Kygrios. Not so young guns Raonic, Tomic, Dolgo and of course Kei.
I also like to see the new improved Monfils vs Djoko on clay. Monfils will be a handful on clay this season.
Yeah I was actually thinking Monfils may be one of the guys who could spoil RG for Nole. If the draw was good for him which it seemingly has been all season then I think la monf could make a deep run to the SF or even further. I would say Rafa and stan are most likely and Monfils with the home crowd is possible and Roger and Andy have of course had success against Nole on clay so u can’t really count them out. Of course at this point it seems like rafa or Nole is primed for the title.