Arguably the toughest tennis in tennis–going up against Rafael Nadal on clay–may have been exactly the wakeup call Dominic Thiem needed in order to get himself in gear this season.
Thiem had been a solid 22-6 even before arriving at the Mutua Madrid Open, but he suffered upset losses at big events to Tennys Sandgren (Australian Open), Fernando Verdasco (Rio de Janeiro), and Stefanos Tsitsipas (Barcelona). The seventh-ranked Austrian just barely managed to avoided upsets at the hands of Federico Delbonis and Borna Coric earlier this week, and with another lease on life he has soared to new heights. Thiem stunned Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-3 on Friday and then erased Kevin Anderson 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals.
Up next for the 24-year-old is Sunday’s final against Alexander Zverev, who trails the head-to-head series 4-1. Thiem won all three of their previous clay-court encounters in the the spring of 2016–in Munich, Nice, and at the French Open. Zverev’s lone victory came later that season on the hard courts of Beijing, while Thiem added another win to his total against the German via a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 decision indoors in Rotterdam last year. None of their previous showdowns has ended in straight sets.
Straight-set affairs are exactly what Zverev has enjoyed so far in Madrid. In fact, nobody has even pushed him to a single tiebreaker. The No. 2 seed booked his spot in his fourth career Masters 1000 finals with routine defeats of Evgeny Donskoy, Leonardo Mayer, John Isner, and Denis Shapovalov. Zverev, the 2017 Rome and Montreal champion, finished runner-up to Isner in Miami as part of his current 25-7 record this season.
“I’ve been in this moment before,” the 21-year-old noted. “I’m just happy to be in the final and play for another Masters title.”
Thiem finds himself in a second straight Madrid final, and this time Nadal is no longer standing in his way. Zverev is no slouch on this surface, but he also isn’t Nadal. And Thiem’s recent stunner against the Spaniard appears to have catapulted him to a new level–or, to put it more accurately, back to his old level. Madrid’s fifth seed had been a hopeless 0-6 lifetime in the head-to-head series with Anderson before trouncing the South African on Saturday.
“It gave me a huge boost of confidence,” Thiem said of his victory over Nadal. “That’s for sure.”
Pick: Thiem in 3
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WYG?
Yep Thiem in three is the pick for me.
“The seventh-ranked Australian…”
We’ll take him!
Anderson was the smart pick to win a set or at the very least test Thiem given the tournament results. The guy plays like Jekyll and Hyde. He needs to stop the drugs, gain some weight, and play with confidence behind a consistent serve.
Austrian.
I guess I’ll take Thiem because I had Zverev picked both against Nishikori and Isner in Miami. I’m still a fan of Zverev because he is so young playing so well. But I wrote off Thiem a long time ago ever since his meltdown against Del Potro who had the freaking flu. Who knows maybe he found his balls and wants to win for Mladenovic in his corner.
Interesting final, I have to disagree with Ricky. I may be proven wrong.
Zverev, looks too solid in my view. Strong all round game, mentally tough. In my view mentally he looks tougher than Thiem and less likely to choke.
If past matches are anything to go by 3 sets seems very likely. However, having watched Zverev yesterday. I thought he played at a very high level, I am tempted with 2-0 zverev, but that does go against stats etc.
So I will stick with a confident shout on zverev
I completely agree with you. I believe just like you, that the mental toughness of Zverev, and him being all over rock solid, will in the end crack the nut (Thiem) Thiem will have to make too many winners to play Zverev off the court, while I am much more confident that Zverev will be able to keep the ball going till Thiem makes the unforced error.
+1
I’m going with Thiem for his maiden clay Masters title,he’s been deserving it for a while now! Yesterday we could see that Shapo has so much to learn,he goes blazzing out guns,assuming a very risky strategy,hit or miss. I could see that he was trying to take the ball on the return so early and way over his shoulder height sometimes and he was missing a lot of returns obviously,instead of slicing the ball and engage in the rallies.
Like it or not,Zverev is here to stay. He’s looking very solid off the ground and moving so well for his height,I would be shocked if he’s not able to reach the second week of a Slam this year. He’s a stablished top 5 player now and I see ＃1 material on him and he’s definitely getting there in the future and winning Slams for sure. I’m expecting him to improve his forehand,and most of all his net game.Then,he will be a very complete all rounder player.
Yep, Shapo is a hit or miss player. I know many are crazily excited over him, for he’s an explosive player not unlike a young Rafa.
I like to compare him with young Rafa, because young Rafa was equally explosive if not more explosive. Rafa was offensive when he’s younger, full of energy and bouncing around; there’s just so much similarities between the two, both are lefties too. However the similarities stopped there – Rafa was a more intelligent player imo, even when young, knowing when to play offence and when the defence.
Shapo just goes for broke, he’s explosive no doubt but that’s because he’s still young; I can’t imagine him being explosive the whole career even when he gets older, so his coach has to teach him how not to go for broke all the time but learns when to be offensive and when not to. His defence imo is poor, for he only knows one way of playing, ie all out attack.
A Zverev and Tsitsipas are better prospects imo as they have the balance between defence and offence about right. I think the three of them will form their own rivalries among themselves, not unlike Fed, Rafa and Djoko.
To me Shapo is more like Fed game wise (except Fed didn’t go for broke when he’s young) but has the demeanour of Rafa; Tsitsipas is more like Rafa in that he’s good on clay and has the patience suitable for clay but his demeanour is more like Fed, ie he’s more quiet and calm.
So, the trio of Shapo, Tsitsipas and Sasha may be the Fed, Rafa and Djoko of the future though I don’t think they can surpass the older trio, highly unlikely.
I agree,Shapo has no transition between defense-offense but he has time on his side and he’ll develop a good defense game I believe.Tsitsipas in fact has played very well on clay this season and he has the game to be a top player in the future.
If someone younger doesn’t step up in the next 2-3 years maybe they’ll be set to dominate the sport,no doubt. Regarding level of play,I don’t they can be close to Fedalovic. I mean,when at their peak it seemed like they almost couldn’t miss a ball,they could be all day playing and with practically no misses,that’s how good they were.
I don’t see these young guys reaching that level.
I’ll give Thiem the edge in 3 sets because he plays well in Madrid and is a good clay courter. He may be nervous though, trying to win his first MC.
If Thiem plays like he did vs Rafa, then there’s no doubt who’s the winner.
With the way Nadal was playing in that match, Zverev would have swooped him in two most likely aswell.
I do my own predictions before looking ar Ricky’s and here I have the same:Thiem in 3! However I like Zverev better and would love him wining the title here!
I agree with NyD: the way Rafa played vs Thiem, he certainly did make an easy target! Zverev would have won just as well!
Elsewhere in Rome, Tsitsipas wins his qualifying match to enter the main draw, so happy for him. But, looking at where the qualifiers will be placed, I doubt he can go far in Rome – either R2 vs Djoko/Isner/Sasha or R1 vs Diego/Edmund/Coric – I’ll be surprised if he can get past R2.
Zverez in 2
Thiem is just not moving his feet. He is playing so poor. I have not seen him ripping his BH even once today in first 7 games.
Zverev’s defense is deceptively good. He has a very wide wingspan and covers the court extremely well.
I think it’s Thiem’s week…in straight.
Thiem hitting BH to Sasha’s BH is asking for troubles. He should hit more DTL shots from that wing. Thiem trying to do too much, overhitting so often.
Thiem losing first game of each set is just like what Anderson did in the SF! It’s crazy that Thiem just stands so far back to hit his shots, never try moving inside the court to take the ball early. He’s clueless how to return Sasha’s big serves.
Zverev to win the French. You heard it here.
When?
10th June 2018
Fat hope!
But, I give Sasha better chances in winning Wimbledon this year, given that he did reach final at Halle and will do one better this year most likely.
I like Zverev but just – no!
Which edition, Joe?
After Monte Carlo he’s just got better and better. Hasnt dropped a set in 8 matches.
Zverev has yet to do anything at a slam. Rafa is not going anywhere.
I really like him and think he is for real. He will win slams, just not now.
Er.. he will soon at Rome. You’ve forgotten somebody went 21 matches without dropping a set, winning 50 sets in a row.
lucky,
Thank you!
Vamos Rafa!
😀
He’s come of age since the AO. Unlucky to run into a hot Isner that was unbeatable with that serve. otherwise 2 Masters titles and 3 ATP.
That has got nothing to do with clay. The Madrid clay surface flatters the big servers, making them look better than they really are on clay – Shapo is one good example.
What 3 ATP???
Miami – Munch – Madrid
I believe that Zverev has not gone past the fourth round at any slam. Fitness has been an issue with him. Winning best of three matches is not an indicator of winning a slam. Zverev won Masters titles last year but could not make a dent at the slams.
Theim has at least gotten to the semis st RG the last two years.
And i guess then he can win wimbledon in 2018 too right? Or do you think he has become only that much better that he can take down rafa at french but not so much that he can take down federer at wimbledon
No, Fed has Wimbledon wrapped up for another year or 2 yet.
Guess that answers how objective your prediction is.
Ha ha, really really fat and fatter hope!!!
Bias is a terrible thing!
😀
Wow these predictions this week really flopped harder than Thiem’a first half of the season.
Thiem is poor in ROS just like most of the young guns, that’s why the big four are just so fascinating, for they’re great in both serve and return, in addition to great Attack and defence.
Zverev is playing like he’s on target for a RG title. You have to read it before it happens not after.
Madrid ain’t no RG! I still maintain that Fed won’t win Wimbledon this year and Sasha may win it, you hear it here first!
See? Words are cheap, anyone can say anything!
Lol
Even the commentators just said it, Zverev could be the one to upset Nadal’s quest for another RG. Interesting that.
Talk is cheap. Means nothing. Zverev has not beaten Rafa anywhere. Rafa is still the favorite, period.
Commentators said that fed would win wimbledon every year from 2005 to 2010 then djokovic from 2011 to 2016 even last year wawrinka was going to win it since he brings it in the gs finals. But nobody was going to take down federer at wimbledon from 2003
Of course Zverev wins. So typical. Fuck all of these players man. I need to stick to MMA.
Ha ha, so it’s Thiem’s turn to get outplayed this time. Thiem couldn’t string three good matches together it seems.
Thiem going CC BH to BH couldn’t work as Sasha has a solid DHBH, he should go DTL more often. Thiem was forced to take more risk and so over hit his shots so often.
Thiem must be feeling disappointed that twice he reached the final and twice he lost. He did all the hard work but the result wasn’t what he desired.
Sasha is one year older than Tsitsipas and two years older than Shapo, he’s the leader of the trio, let’s see what the other two can do in one to two years time, can they catch up with him?
Definitely disappointed in Thiem… He has proven so many times that he has the talent to win big titles, but he just doesn’t have the consistency. I will say, however, that it wasn’t as though he lost to some bum who he was massively favored to beat- he lost to multiple Masters champion who has beaten big 4 + Stan guys en route to titles.
Thiem has beaten Big 4 guys like Zverev, but he’s never been able to build on those wins. Maybe he’s just never had the best fitness? Who knows. As for Zverev, I really wish that I could take him more seriously as a top player. When a guy has won 3 Masters titles at three different tournaments, beating big 4 guys en route to two of them and a top-10 player in the other, then he would have to be considered one of the favorites at the majors, right?
Wrong… I just cannot bring myself to view him as any kind of threat at the only events that truly matter when he has never even won a 4th round match at a major. I don’t doubt that he will have to break through at some point. But every time he wins another Masters title, it only serves to make him more frustrating and confusing…
True, Sasha can win at the Masters (BO3) but he couldn’t go past R4 at the slams (BO5) that shows he lacks either the fitness or the mentality to last for four or five sets. I think of Murray, whom also started winning many Masters as a 21 yo but he failed at the slams, sometimes losing to big three but at other times he could lose to about anyone.
Thiem, after losing the match to Delpo at the USO last year from two sets up, had since lost some close matches when going the distance. It took him until this Madrid to recover some of his confidence, after scraping through two three setters to reach the QF. I agree that he’s too inconsistent, his level could vary from match to match; so sometimes you expect him to win the match that he should, he ended up losing it. His two matches here – QF and SF – were exceptional when he could play so well, almost flawless and then what followed in the final was a match filled with errors. He just couldn’t play his best when it mattered. The same thing happened in Roms last year, played flawless tennis vs Rafa but lost meekly to Djoko in the next round. Such is Thiem.
Do you think he will eventually find that consistency, Lucky? Or do you think he’ll ultimately be his generation’s Berdych?
Sascha has 3 masters 1000 titles 😀
But I did feel bad for Thiem. He played awful today and the way he looked and sounded getting the RU trophy was sad. I hope he does well in Rome. But he has a bad draw again.
Zverev looks confident and has more in the tank for Rome and RG. Not saying he can beat Rafa! But he could make a deeper run. He maybe has more attention span and endurance than last year for the GS events too — but I’m just guessing. I’d like to see him win Wimbledon… someday.
Tsitsipas just barely made it past Lajovic to win a spot in Rome main draw. Yay!
Re: Tsitsipas not barely made it, he beat Lajovic in straight sets!
Sasha will be playing for three consecutive weeks come Rome: I doubt he’ll go far at Rome. We’ll see how he fares at the slams. I think RG is physically more demanding so he may not go far; however with his big serve he may go far this time on grass, at both Halle and Wimbledon. He’s really good among the youngsters, for he can play well on any surface.
Thiem – he had the bad luck of running into Rafa so often on clay, had he the draw of Sasha’s at Madrid, maybe he would do better.
But it was tough, LS! Those straight sets, especially the first set was tough. That tie break (watching the score) was a nail-biter. Okay maybe I’m already a big Tsitsipas fan lol
Did you watch the Madrid trophy ceremony? I thought Sascha looked quite good – he didn’t drop a set all tournament. I picked him deep in Rome 😀
Of
Rome conditions slower so Sasha’s serve may not be that effective; he may reach QF and I expect Goffin there to meet him. Sasha has to get past Edmund first I think; Edmund can play on clay, any type of clay, so it’ll be a tough one for Sasha.
Lajovic is one crafty player, he beat Delpo at Madrid fast clay remember? Tsitsipas did well to beat Lajovic who happened to play well on clay this year.
I like Tsitsipas too, over any of the other youngsters. You know what, watching Tsitsipas footwork is like watching Fed’s, he’s so light footed; watching Shapo’s is like watching Rafa’s – explosive and quick. Those two guys have some characteristics of Fedal – footwork, game style and demeanour.
Strange that I love Rafa but don’t fancy Shapo; I don’t like Fed but I like Tsitsipas.
Yeah. And Stef had a 3 setter with Kukushkin in R1 qualifying.
I didn’t look up stats but it seemed like he was having trouble with break points like he did in the Estoril final 😀 I kept shouting at the score
Oh yes, I remember Lajovic. How can I forget him now, after that Madrid performance.
Sasha is another Djoko? He can play well on any surface, won Masters on clay and HC; reached final at Halle. He comes with great DHBH not unlike Djoko.
Can he do the splits in both directions? Sascha may have similar abilities like a great DHBH and an all court game. Is he as quick as Novak was? Good point about his serve being less effective at RG — But he did win in Rome last year. Maybe that was luck. But he got it, in any case.
How about like Delpo before Delpo had all the wrist surgeries? 2009 Delpo. I don’t know if he’s as stubborn fighter as Delpo was.
Started to add, Tsitsipas has Coric first round and Delpo after that, if he makes it. I don’t think he will.
Yeah, too much to ask for from him.
Thiem just can’t back up the big wins he’s been getting,he feels the pressure big time and his game falls apart.
He has been praised for a long time as the Prince of Clay and right now I can’t really consider him as that,especially when there’s a younger player than him who already has 2 Masters on the surface.
Zverev has to consider himself lucky in his runs,given that he’s faced and injured Fed in Montreal,a subpar Thiem today and also a subpar Djoko at Rome last year.
Good to see Zverev come through. I did back him, but not brave enough to do 2-0 as I suggested earlier.
He may be defending champ for Rome, but very hard to do back to back tournaments which in this case would be 3 in a row! I also was of the view that Rome is quite slow! So not sure if that really favours zverev, even if he has won it before!
Roland Garros for Zverev. Too soon in my view. Let’s see.
I tend to agree with Ricky, I think big bet on nadal. Speed and bounce of court should be more to his liking! Lets see!
I never have time, otherwise, I would give input on daily tips! But i will try.
Good to get an overall view from other punters.
B O L
Pistol