With Rafael Nadal out, the Madrid title has suddenly become totally up for grabs. The remaining contenders are Dominic Thiem, Kevin Anderson, Alexander Zverev, and Denis Shapovalov, who will take the court for semifinal action on Saturday.
(5) Dominic Thiem vs. (6) Kevin Anderson
Anderson could have expected to meet Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals of Mutua Madrid Open. Instead he got Dusan Lajovic. The eighth-ranked South African really could have anticipated a semifinal showdown against Rafael Nadal. Instead he will get Thiem. Nadal’s streak of 14 straight clay-court wins and 50 consecutive clay-court sets won came to an end on Friday when Thiem produced a 7-5, 6-3 upset. Even though it was the seventh-ranked Austrian’s third career victory over the current world No. 1 on this surface, it came just about of nowhere. After all, Thiem had been drubbed 6-0, 6-2 by Nadal in Monte-Carlo and was coming off a Barcelona quarterfinal loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas. He also needed three tough sets to get past both Federico Delbonis and Borna Coric earlier this week.
Now Thiem and Anderson are set for a seventh career head-to-head contest, with Anderson a surprisingly perfect 6-0 lifetime. The 31-year-old is 13-2 in total sets and Thiem has never won a single set off his nemesis without requiring a tiebreaker. They most recently faced each other in a Washington, D.C. thriller last summer, when Anderson prevailed 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-6(7). Anderson, who went on to finish runner-up at the U.S. Open, now finds himself in his first-ever Masters 1000 semifinal following Madrid defeats of Mikhail Kukushkin, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Dusan Lajovic. Thiem’s best level would obviously be enough to win this one, but the chances of a similar display are slim given how few and far between they have come for him this season. Conditions are right up Anderson’s alley, giving him a chance to extend his head-to-head dominance over the 24-year-old.
Pick: Anderson in 3
[polldaddy poll=10002115]
Denis Shapovalov vs. (2) Alexander Zverev
Zverev and Shapovalov will be squaring off for the second time in their careers on Saturday. Their only previous encounter also came in the semifinals of a Masters 1000 tournament, with Zverev getting the job done 6-4, 7-5 en route to the Montreal title last summer. A borderline Masters 1000 specialist who has not yet made any serious noise at slams, the 21-year-old German also triumphed last year in Rome and recently finished runner-up in Miami. He is through to another semifinal thanks to straight-set victories this week at the expense of Evgeny Donskoy, Leonardo Mayer, and John Isner.
Shapovalov, a fourth-round performer at the U.S. Open who clearly loves the big stage as opposed to more obscure events, is through to the semis following defeats of Tennys Sandgren, Benoit Paire, Milos Raonic, and Kyle Edmund. The 19-year-old Canadian is a solid 17-10 at the ATP level in 2018 with a fourth-round finish in Miami. But this is likely when the run ends for Shapovalov, as current form, the surface, and experience all favor Zverev.
Pick: Zverev in 2
[polldaddy poll=10002280]
Leave a Reply