Rome Masters preview and predictions

The third and final clay-court Masters event of the season—and fifth Masters event in the span of two months—will take center stage this week in Rome. Rafael Nadal is looking to restore order on the heels of a surprising Madrid loss by winning his eighth Rome title and first since 2013. It may not be easy, however, as Nadal has once again landed in the same quarter of the draw as Dominic Thiem and a strong field also includes Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Novak Djokovic.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia

Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points
: 1000
Prize money
: 4,872,105 Euros

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Alexander Zverev

Draw analysis: Nadal generally wins three clay-court tournaments leading into the French Open: Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and either Madrid or Rome. Last year it was Madrid and not Rome. Will it be Rome this time around, after the Spaniard suffered an upset loss to Thiem in the Madrid quarterfinals? Although that should turn out to be the case, his draw is not helpful. Nadal will likely open against Fernando Verdasco before possibly meeting Madrid semifinalist Denis Shapovalov in the third round and Thiem in the quarterfinals. Djokovic, world No. 4 Grigor Dimitrov, and the always-dangerous Miami champion John Isner are potential semifinal opponents for the top seed.

Another difficult draw for Djokovic has seen him land not only in the same half as Nadal and in the same quarter as Dimitrov and Isner, but also in the same quarter as Kei Nishikori, Jack Sock, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Dimitrov’s opening match may feature Nishikori on the other side of the net, while Kohlschreiber and Karen Khachanov are set to square off in one of the more intriguing first-rounders.

At the bottom of the bracket, Del Potro seemingly has one of the toughest draws of all. The Indian Wells winner likely awaits Borna Coric (who served for the match against Thiem in Madrid) right off the bat and finds himself on collision courses with David Goffin for the third round and with Zverev for the quarters. Zverev, on the other hand, should have less trouble advancing to the last eight. The No. 2 seed, defending champion, and Madrid winner will kick off his campaign against either wild card Matteo Berrettini or a qualifier before doing battle with either Lucas Pouille, Kyle Edmund, Andreas Seppi, or another qualifier.

In the most up-for-grabs section of the draw, fourth-seeded Marin Cilic and seventh-seeded Kevin Anderson own first-round byes. Cilic lost right away in Istanbul to Malek Jaziri and then skipped Madrid, while Anderson got his clay-court swing off and running with a semifinal performance in Madrid but may find Rome conditions less favorable. This could be a real opportunity for Pablo Carreno Busta and Diego Schwartzman to do some serious damage.

Other first-round matchups to watch include Shapovalov vs. Tomas Berdych, Djokovic vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov, Gael Monfils vs. Fabio Fognini, and Richard Gasquet vs. Benoit Paire.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Andreas Seppi over (16) Lucas Pouille. Unbelievably, in all nine of his 2018 tournaments Pouille has either lost his opening match or went all the way to the final. The unfortunate former fate has befallen him on six occasions, and Seppi may be able to make it a seventh in Rome. They faced each other on clay earlier this spring and also in Italy, when Pouille needed five sets to survive while helping France eventually reach the Davis Cu semifinals. Seppi, a Rome quarterfinalist in 2012, recently advanced to the Monte-Carlo third round and the Budapest semis.

Hot: Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, John Isner, Denis Shapovalov, Philipp Kohlschreiber

Cold: Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Lucas Pouille, Damir Dzumhur, Gael Monfils, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Stan Wawrinka

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Dominic Thiem, Novak Djokovic over Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta over Diego Schwartzman, and David Goffin over Kyle Edmund

Semifinals: Nadal over Djokovic and Goffin over Carreno Busta

Final: Nadal over Goffin

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

65 Comments on Rome Masters preview and predictions

  1. PCB? You still believe in him?

    I like to see a Tsitsipas vs Goffin rematch on clay, Goffin won one at MC. Tsitsipas has to beat Coric followed by Delpo before meeting Goffin , almost impossible.

    I agree with two of your QF predictions; I have Diego over PCB and Goffin over Sasha.

    SF: Rafa over Djoko; Goffin over Diego.
    Final: Rafa over Goffin

  2. It’s starting to seem clearer and clearer that we are in the midst of a changing of the guard in tennis. Consider: Murray (31) is still out and may never return to form; Novak (31) is nowhere near his best; Wawrinka (33) is just back after injury and lost to a qualifier; Federer (36) lost his last two matches, one to a qualifier; and Nadal (nearly 32) lost on clay, after failing to complete a tournament over nearly 5 months before the clay season started.

    Now, all of these players may yet return to their best or near to it, but given their ages, history suggests otherwise. The last year the big three (plus Andy and Stan) failed to win at least 3 slams was 2003 (since then they’ve won all four slams every year except 2005, 2009, and 2014). I wouldn’t be surprised if 2018 turns out to be the next such year.

    • Nah, there’re still Delpo and Cilic from the old guards; if anything they may be the two who would take advantage – Cilic reached two slam finals and lost to Fed both times; Delpo beaten by Rafa at the USO. There’s Anderson too who’s as old as Rafa, the beaten finalist at the USO.

      So, the last five slams were won by Fedal, the beaten finalists were all from the old guards – Rafa, Stan, Cilic, Anderson. Changing of guards? Not yet!

      • It’s coming, Lucky. You’ve got to look at who is making the semis recently at the big tournaments. Zverev has already won more masters tournaments than Cilic and Delpo combined. And he’s just 21. It’s only a matter of time before he starts winning slams.

        Coric, Shapo, Chung, Edmund, even Tiafoe -all those guys are starting to step up and are around the same age. Thiem and Kyrgios are a bit older, Dimitrov a bit more still. But I think it’s the youngest guys, led by Zverev, who will start winning slams in the next couple of years. That’s more likely than that Dimitrov, delpo or Anderson wins them, imo.

        Cilic has shown the most achievement at the slam level apart from big 5; he’s the most likely to win one of the guys who are near 30, imo.

        • I suppose the guard must change before much longer but Cilic is already 30. So is Delpo, although JMDP has a lot less tennis in his shoulders than most other 30 year old pros. Djokovic and Murray may yet have a couple of slams left in them but I’m not hopeful about this year for them. Still, someone’s got to win the slams. Roger may be good for another Wimbly, Rafa for RG. The USO? Who knows?

        • So you’re at least one to two years premature in your prediction.

          Thiem and Dimi are the two making SFs at the slams, with Raonic and Kei making one slam final each. They are yet to win any.

          This year, Chung and Edmund made the SFs at the AO, but the rest of the young guns? It’s too early to say that there’s the changing of the guards. I still don’t see anyone threatening at the slams yet. Look at how Chung lost his SF meekly to Fed, getting a big foot blister just to get to the SF. Edmund battled through four and five setters but lost in straight sets to Cilic in the SF. Where’s Sasha?

          The young guns, they’re yet to show the game, the fitness and the consistency to win seven matches in a row and sometimes having to go the distance of a five setter. Perhaps Wimbledon is a good place for them to start making deeper inroads at the slams, for, having a big serve and hitting hard may get you far on grass, as it’s harder to defend against such play on quicker surface like grass; points are shorter so less strenuous physically too.

          • I don’t think the change is coming just yet. Winning a slam requires a certain skill set and the young guys don’t have it. They don’t have the physical strength to win seven Bof5 matches.

            Cilic has done the best out of the younger guys, but he’s not that young anymore. He’s had his chances, but hasn’t been able to win another slam so far. Thiem has done well at RG, getting to the semifinals two years in arow. Zverev has done well winning Masters titles, but has not been able to do it in the slams. Dimi had so much potential, but came along when the top four were dominating. He’s not a kid anymore.

            Murray and Novak are real question marks. My rrayvis coming back from hip surgery and there is no way to know yet if he can get back to his best form. Novak has become a head case and is mired in a slump

            I don’t know that Wawrinka can contend for slams at this point. I think Nishi and Raonic may have gone as far as they can in this sport.

            For now Rafa and Fed are still at the top and can win slams. I just don’t see any of the young guys ready to run a slam yet.

          • I say this year Fed is favourite at Wimby and (obviously) Nadal at RG. But neither is an obvious favourite at USO. And next year all bets are off; 2019 is just too far away at their ages. So if the end of big 3 dominance doesn’t happen this year, I say next year it will.

        • Why wishful when Rafa is the defending champion at the USO? Yours more a wishful thinking on your part, wishing very hard that Rafa loses at the slams so that he won’t catch up with Fed!

          If Rafa is one year older now so is Fed, and at Wimbledon, it’s even easier to lose serve vs big servers and hard hitters. I bet the hard hitting big serving young guns have better chances at Wimbledon than at FO and USO, when it’s relatively easier to defend on clay and medium speed HCs than on grass.

          • Rafa is a bigger favourite at RG than Fed is at Wimby this year. But Fed is -at this point- still a bigger favourite than Rafa at USO this year. Fed wasn’t 100% last year, but is clearly the better HC player than Nadal at this point. 4 wins last year says so.

          • Joe, you should never write off the defending champion. From what I see of Fed this year, he’s looking less convincing than last year on the HCs, how can you say he’s the bigger favourite than Rafa at the USO? When was the last time Fed won at the USO?

          • And Joe, you talk as if there’s only Rafa! Fed may not go far to meet Rafa! Look, other than Rafa’s poor seasons of 2015/2016, he has been reaching finals and winning thrice at the USO. Fed made only one final, in 2015, in the past six or seven years. Who’s more likely to reach the final and winning it?

          • At this point Fed is a slight favourite over Rafa to win the USO (7/2 vs. 11/2). That is as it should be, it seems to me.

            Yes, Rafa won last year, and all credit to him. But his record on HC since that time has not been good. I think it’s unlikely that he will win this year, and it would not be too surprising if last year was his last HC slam.

            You’re right that Fed hasn’t been as convincing on HC this year as last. But he hardly has been getting blown out. He held match points against del Potro, and was two points from victory against Kokkinakis, who played the match of his life. Fed hasn’t won for many years at USO, but he’s been close many times and usually makes at least the SF. I think that will be the case again this year if he’s healthy. He won’t make the mistake of playing Montreal again.

          • We’ll see Joe, my bet is on Rafa (assuming he’s fit of course).

            BTW, why was Rafa unconvincing on HCs when he won USO, Beijing and reached the final of Shanghai? He was injured from then on so he lost early at WTF and AO, withdrawn from Paris QF.

          • Exactly: He was great in Beijing, but injured in Shanghai, and then injured for a long time. That matters. I also don’t think we can assume that Rafa won’t get injured again after this clay season finishes. Advancing age also matters, and staying healthy will become more difficult for Nadal, not less.

          • Do you really think a fit Nadal would beat a fit Federer at the USO? Why, when Fed has established such an advantage over him on HC?

          • Joe, don’t you think injury issues also apply to Fed? Who’s the one who injured his back at Montreal last year despite playing fewer matches than Rafa?

            Your question about Rafa meeting Fed at the USO, I’ll say Rafa over Fed in four or five sets, because Rafa was very close at the AO and AO was on quicker court. The court at USO was ideal for Rafa’s game, medium speed court, it’s no wonder he did well there winning three out of four finals, beating Djoko twice there.

          • Rafa couldn’t take a set off Fed last year since the 5th set at AO, including on slow HC in IW and Miami. Rafa’s results from many years ago don’t matter any more against Fed 2.0. A fit Fed has the advantage against Rafa on HC right now, until Nadal can at least take a set off him. If you can’t accept that, that’s your bias showing.

  3. Will have full picks up soon but safe to say Rafa should bounce back and win here no matter who he’s facing. Although I think he may have Thiem in his path so that could be interesting, considering he also lost to Thiem here last year.

    • I don’t think Thiem could replicate his Rome 2017 or Madrid 2018 performance against Rafa. Thiem said it himself, the Madrid conditions helped him and he had to play his best to beat a subpar Rafa. Rafa will be physically fresher now that he lost early at Madrid; and, the slower Rome conditions favor Rafa’s play.

      It’ll be interesting to see how far Sasha goes at Rome, he has potentially Tiafoe, then Edmund and then Goffin standing in his way, and either of Delpo/Cilic/Diego in the SF. Let’s see can Sasha play well three weeks in a row.

  4. It’s always hard to correct for my bias where Nadal is concerned, but I just don’t see him winning in Rome. He’s a year older than last year, and I just don’t think the injuries are completely past him. He has a very tough draw, and he didn’t look great even in his wins in Madrid. And I don’t think he was really challenged in MC. He will be here, and Thiem’s victory will have given at some in the field a bit of self-belief. My prediction is that Nadal will trip up along the way.

    Zverev to repeat as Rome champ.

    • Joe, I see no end to your bias against Rafa. It’s more like your own wishful thinking! Rafa will be fresher than Thiem and Sasha; you expect Sasha to win three in a row? I doubt it.

      Rafa’s draw at Rome is not any harder than at MC or even Barcelona, you call beating Thiem, Goffin and Dimi being not so difficult draw at MC/Barcelona? You want to beat Rafa? Pray for his off days but his off days are hard to come by on clay.

      I don’t see where you’re coming from. In fact the Rome conditions favor Rafa more than when he’s at Madrid, and he’s now more match fit having played enough matches on clay.

      • Well, Verdasco always plays Rafa tough. He could play Shapo in R3 and Thiem in R4. Considering that both those guys made the SF in Madrid and have been playing well, those aren’t an easy three matches.

        Rafa is nearly 32 years old. He’s had a couple of serious recent injuries. He won’t be fresher than anyone he’s likely to play in Rome, except maybe Verdasco. Thiem hasn’t played that much tennis lately, and Zverev won all of his matches in straight sets in Madrid. Plus, he’s 21.

        No one can play their best every day. Even if Rafa is still the best on clay, I think he will have another one of those days against a tough opponent in Rome. We’ll find out soon enough.

        • Joe, Thiem has an injury during IW or Miami, he’s also coming back from injury, if you doubt Rafa’s recovery, all the more you should doubt Thiem.

          I’ll be glad if Shapo could make it to face Rafa, the quicker surface at Madrid flattered his play, on slower surface when he has to rally more, look for plenty of errors flying off his racket.

          Verdasco? Not on clay!

        • And Joe, there’re Tiafoe, Edmund, Goffin, Diego not to mention Delpo and the other TOP ten players standing in Sasha’s way!

          Sasha’s draw at Rome is tougher than his at Madrid, there’re more better players on clay standing in his way at Rome.

    • Joe….I think u wrong…About Rafa,about Sascha & and i totally agree with Lucky…There is no way Sascha will win in 3 consecutive tournaments B2B2B…My prediction,Sascha will lost whether in Rd3/Seppi/Edmund,Rd4 Goffin/DelPo,QF Schwartzy/PCB…I don’t think he has the energy to win Rome Joe,no matter how impressive he is atm…Not to mention,the father of obstacle of all that will stand in front of him & trophy….RAFA!

      Oh!…I want to give full credit to Thiem for his win over Rafa in Madrid…but,i also want to stressed that Rafa did not play at his best in Madrid due to his nerves…and everythings was snowballed bcoz of that…but,in Rome..everythings are totally different than Madrid…And Rafa will be very comfortable with conditions that will make him very confidence…Thiem not going to survive this time against Rafa…

      • No doubt that Rafa was not at his best. But imo he is very sensitive to his opponent’s level of play, and consistent strong play by his opponent can get him discouraged, at least at this late stage of his career. So I think psychologically Nadal is maybe weaker than he was 10 years ago, even though he is playing smarter tennis and his game is technically/physically better.

  5. Zverev knows he needs to get stronger to win slams. He says he’s working out three hours a day in the gym on training days and is 15 kilos heavier than he was two years ago. He’ll get there sooner rather than later. Maybe not quite as talented as Kygrios and Shapovalov, but with his combination of size and work ethic, he’s probably got the most promise overall of the next Gen.

    http://metro.co.uk/2018/05/13/alexander-zverev-targeting-roger-federer-rafael-nadal-latest-masters-win-7542893/

    • The heavier Sasha had lost early at the slams! He was already heavier last season when he was coached by Ferrero.

      I think his best chances at the slams is Wimbledon, he already made the Halle final last year and it’s at Wimbledon that he reached R4, the furthest he had gone to at a slam. Like I said earlier, his serve and his flat BH would help him on quicker surface like grass; he being ready to move into the court after his big serve would also serve him well on grass.

      • Well’s he has already won on two clay surfaces, so I don’t see that his best chance is on grass. I think it’s mostly mental for him, and I expect him to go deep in the slams this year, and possibly win one.

        • Oh yeah Joe….Just want to give u a fact..Sascha never past Rd4 in EVERY slams that he entered so far…And i agree with u..it’s all about mental for him in slam….But,we will see whether he will prove u @ i wrong this FO & Wimby Joe…

          • I guess we’ll see, Mira. But I can’t think of a single player that has had a lot of success at 1000 level but not at slams. Murray is maybe closest, but he’s made it deep in many slams, only to lose to the big 3 most of the time.

            Zverev is very close to taking it to the next level at slams, and once he breaks through I think we’ll start to see him do it regularly. He’s already shown he can win on slow clay (Rome) against one of the big 3 (Novak). There’s no good reason he can’t go deep at this year’s RG, and at this point I’d put him equal 2nd (with Thiem) in terms of favourites. Wawrinka and Djokovic are just nowhere near their best yet.

        • Why not? There’s only one grass 500 event before Wimbledon; I doubt he wants to play another 250 on grass. Even with only one warm up, he still could do better at Wimbledon than at the other slams, tell me he’s not good on grass? He may be better on grass than on clay!

    • Did you say size? He’s six foot six, hardly an ideal height/size to move around the court. Kyrgios is quicker than him, even quicker than the 19 yo Shapo.

      Kyrgios and Tsitsipas are better movers, more light footed. Shapo moves using more energy, not unlike Rafa but Shapo doesn’t have Rafa’s physique or athleticism from what I see of him. Shapo won’t be able to play explosive tennis for Long once he gets older.

      Sasha moves ok for his height, not unlike Delpo, but he doesn’t have the easy power of Delpo so he has to hit harder. Maybe Zverev will end up like a bigger size Djoko, quite balanced from both wings with his BH slightly stronger, though I don’t see him doing as well (as Djoko).

      • Zverev’s movement is ok. I agree that 6 foot six has not been ideal height to this point, but players are getting bigger and taller. And height matters for the most important shot in tennis: the serve. If Sascha can continue to develop his serve, it can be devastating and automatically make him competitive in any given match.

        The other area where height is an advantage is on the heavy topspin to the BH, which many players try to employ, not just Nadal. It can be an equalizer on slow bouncy surfaces.

        Overall, I think Kygrios is the better athlete and I agree the more ideal size. But at this point, Zverev’s mental strength, work-ethic, and resistance to injury more than makes up for Kygrios’ superior natural ability. Maybe that will change, but there’s not much evidence of it yet from Nick.

  6. On paper Rafa’s draw not an easy one but I believe he’ll reach the QF without many trouble. Hopefully he turns the tables on Thiem and go all the way for the title. I doubt Djoko’s getting far,he’s been slowly improving and needs to build some momentum,we’ll see.

    P.S. Some things I’ve been reading here in the Grandstand are laughable. Zverev to win RG 18? Rafa’s the worst match up possible for him and on the slowest clay of the world,Rafa will exploit Zverev’s movement and his iffy forehand,wearing him down probably. Also we can’t forget that despite Zverev’s solid backhand,he finds it very hard to hit throw the loopy and full of spin Rafa’s shots,especially his FH. Maybe at Wimbledon Zverev would have a decent shot at taking him out but no way he can defeat him in the clay of Paris.

    • So laughable that Zverev (13/1) is the third favourite to win RG behind Nadal (1/2) and Thiem (9/1). So if Nadal should somehow get upset, then Zverev would be basically as good a bet as anyone.

      Haha.

      • Joe, those are for betting purposes, I mean who else if not those three, when non of the others reached a masters final or winning one on clay??

        • Well, Goffin, Delpo, maybe even Isner or Kyrgios have a shot. Obviously Djokovic and Wawrinka if they can somehow get their games together. But recent form and results matter, which is why Zverev is objectively a better bet than any of them to win RG at this point. I doubt it’s that Sascha is drawing so much action that the bookies have to shorten his odds. 13/1 is probably a pretty accurate assessment of his chances right now.

          Obviously I’m not saying I think he will win RG. I don’t: like everyone else I think Nadal will win. But nothing is guaranteed, and it’s not laughable to think Zverev could end up with the trophy.

      • Tennis is all about matchups Joe,and Rafa is a nightmare one for Zverev. And we can’t forget that Zverev is yet to prove himself in Bo5 matches! Before he thinks on taking down Fedal on slams he has to reach a QF first! IMO,the ones who have a shot against Rafa are Delpo(don’t know if he has the stamina/fitness to make it) and Thiem(not sure if he can sustain a extremely high level for 5 sets),but only if they play out of their minds.

        • Again, I’m not saying Zverev is favoured to win the tournament or to beat Nadal. I don’t think those things. But it’s not laughable to think he could win RG. Think about it: it’s not as if the bookies are unaware of his relative failures at slams to this point. They obviously (and correctly) think that that trend could end at any moment, including RG 2018, which is why they have installed him as 3rd favourite to win.

    • 👍Agreed Gaviria, well said. Even a peak Djoko had problem taking on Rafa at the FO, are these people crazy to think that Sasha could do the job? Have they forgotten how Rafa blown Sasha off the court in a BO5 clay court match at the DC this year?

    • Gaviria,

      I gave my opinion of the prediction that Zverev will win RG! Say what? Based on him winning Madrid? I believe that Zverev has. It won a title yet this year until Munich abc now Rome. Finally he seems to have gotten himself going.

      But to then predict he’s going to win RG! Based on what? He has not gone further that the fourth round at any slam. Why not predict Thiem? He at least got to two semifinals at RG. I don’t see how Zverev goes from not ever getting deep in a slam, to winning RG.

      I happen to like Zverev. I have had my eye in him for the last two years. He has the game and the attitude and work ethic to succeed. I think mentally he’s tough. I think he’s the real thing. But I don’t see him suddenly winning RG. Wimbledon might be a better one for him. But he has to show me something at a slam.

      • In fact I really aprecciate Zverev’s BH,reminds me a bit of Djoko’s one. I recognise he’s a very good player and will probably rack up some Slams in the future,but I can’t stand with some of his antics on court,like “This is my *uckin court ” and things like that which make me think that he’s a bit arrogant at times. He’ll get to the later stages of Slams,it’s only a matter of time until he starts fighting for them. However,given how things are currently setting up for RG this year,the only chance he has of winning RG is if somehow he avoids Rafa. Also,RG is the most physically tough Slam,and Zverev hasn’t really showed the physical fitness to go deep in such an exhausting event.

    • I also agree that Delpo and Thiem would be better picks. I agree with Gaviria. Delpo may not have the fitness and I don’t know that Thiem can sustain a high enough level in a Bof5 set match.

  7. Theim always lands in Nadal’s quarter. Huh.
    If Nadal does not win Rome, I think RG could well wide open. If The Madrid loss didn’t damage Nadal’s confidence, another loss in Rome surely would.

    • I don’t think winning RG depends on Rafa winning Rome. Losing at Nadrud was not a surprise. Rafa hasn’t dominated there.

      Conditions are better in Rome. It would be great if Rafa could rob Rome and get back the #1 ranking. But I don’t think what happens in Rome will affect RG. We know what Rafa is capable of at RG. He’s had some tough losses to Novak on clay leading up to RG and it didn’t affect him at RG.

    • Thiem having a tough time against Fognini, as correctly predicted by Nyd. I could see Shapo or Zverev taking it.

  8. He way I see it, Rafa is now all but guaranteed to go back to #1 next week and stay there until at least the US Open. I really believe that this season’s YE#1 could come down to the finals weeks. Although, ultimately, I am pretty sure that Federer skipping what will likely amount to 1 major and 5 masters tournaments will just make it impossible for him to end the year #1, even if he managed to win 2 slams again. I think he would likely need to win all 3 majors outside of RG to end #1, and the odds of that happening are not very good…

    • Wait, weren’t you the one who saw Rafa not losing a set on clay this year?

      If Rafa doesn’t win Rome, Fed sails as No. 1 through to mid-August at least (because we all know Fed is winning Wimby right?)

      😉

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