The third and final clay-court Masters event of the season—and fifth Masters event in the span of two months—will take center stage this week in Rome. Rafael Nadal is looking to restore order on the heels of a surprising Madrid loss by winning his eighth Rome title and first since 2013. It may not be easy, however, as Nadal has once again landed in the same quarter of the draw as Dominic Thiem and a strong field also includes Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Novak Djokovic.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 4,872,105 Euros
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Alexander Zverev
Draw analysis: Nadal generally wins three clay-court tournaments leading into the French Open: Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and either Madrid or Rome. Last year it was Madrid and not Rome. Will it be Rome this time around, after the Spaniard suffered an upset loss to Thiem in the Madrid quarterfinals? Although that should turn out to be the case, his draw is not helpful. Nadal will likely open against Fernando Verdasco before possibly meeting Madrid semifinalist Denis Shapovalov in the third round and Thiem in the quarterfinals. Djokovic, world No. 4 Grigor Dimitrov, and the always-dangerous Miami champion John Isner are potential semifinal opponents for the top seed.
Another difficult draw for Djokovic has seen him land not only in the same half as Nadal and in the same quarter as Dimitrov and Isner, but also in the same quarter as Kei Nishikori, Jack Sock, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Dimitrov’s opening match may feature Nishikori on the other side of the net, while Kohlschreiber and Karen Khachanov are set to square off in one of the more intriguing first-rounders.
At the bottom of the bracket, Del Potro seemingly has one of the toughest draws of all. The Indian Wells winner likely awaits Borna Coric (who served for the match against Thiem in Madrid) right off the bat and finds himself on collision courses with David Goffin for the third round and with Zverev for the quarters. Zverev, on the other hand, should have less trouble advancing to the last eight. The No. 2 seed, defending champion, and Madrid winner will kick off his campaign against either wild card Matteo Berrettini or a qualifier before doing battle with either Lucas Pouille, Kyle Edmund, Andreas Seppi, or another qualifier.
In the most up-for-grabs section of the draw, fourth-seeded Marin Cilic and seventh-seeded Kevin Anderson own first-round byes. Cilic lost right away in Istanbul to Malek Jaziri and then skipped Madrid, while Anderson got his clay-court swing off and running with a semifinal performance in Madrid but may find Rome conditions less favorable. This could be a real opportunity for Pablo Carreno Busta and Diego Schwartzman to do some serious damage.
Other first-round matchups to watch include Shapovalov vs. Tomas Berdych, Djokovic vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov, Gael Monfils vs. Fabio Fognini, and Richard Gasquet vs. Benoit Paire.
First-round upset alert: (WC) Andreas Seppi over (16) Lucas Pouille. Unbelievably, in all nine of his 2018 tournaments Pouille has either lost his opening match or went all the way to the final. The unfortunate former fate has befallen him on six occasions, and Seppi may be able to make it a seventh in Rome. They faced each other on clay earlier this spring and also in Italy, when Pouille needed five sets to survive while helping France eventually reach the Davis Cu semifinals. Seppi, a Rome quarterfinalist in 2012, recently advanced to the Monte-Carlo third round and the Budapest semis.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, John Isner, Denis Shapovalov, Philipp Kohlschreiber
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Lucas Pouille, Damir Dzumhur, Gael Monfils, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Stan Wawrinka
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Dominic Thiem, Novak Djokovic over Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta over Diego Schwartzman, and David Goffin over Kyle Edmund
Semifinals: Nadal over Djokovic and Goffin over Carreno Busta
Final: Nadal over Goffin
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