The Madrid title will come down to the top two players in the world on Sunday. Andy Murray is the defending champion, but Novak Djokovic has already lifted four trophies this season and is a heavy favorite to capture another.
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be facing each other for the 32nd time in their careers when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title on Sunday.
Djokovic is leading the head-to-head series 22-9, but even the relatively lopsided nature of that scoreline hardly paints the real picture. The top-ranked Serb is a positively dominant 11-1 in his last 12 meetings with Murray. Although Murray ended an eight-match losing streak by triumphing in last summer’s Montreal final, Djokovic has since reeled off three more victories in succession. They most recently squared off in the Australian Open final, with Djokovic getting the job done 6-1, 7-5, 7-6(3).
Does Murray have any reason to think he can turn the tide back in his favor? He does, in fact, have a few results in his back pocket from which to take heart. The world No. 2 captured the Madrid title in 2015, beating Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, and Rafael Nadal in the process. He has been similarly outstanding this week–at least since dropping a set in his opener against Radek Stepanek. Murray hammered Gilles Simon 6-4, 6-2 in the third round and was off to the races, parlaying that result into straight-set defeats of Tomas Berdych and Nadal.
Djokovic has turned back into, well, Djokovic since falling to Jiri Vesely right away in Monte-Carlo. The No. 1 seed is through to the championship match thanks to straight-set wins over Borna Coric, Roberto Bautista Agut, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori. Only Nishikori has managed to break Djokovic (once) or take more than four games in any set. Djokovic is now 32-2 on the year and his only loss outside of Monte-Carlo came via retirement.
Sending a message loud and a clear that he is firmly in line for his first-ever French Open title is something Djokovic was unable to do in Monte-Carlo. He should have little trouble sending that message on Sunday at the expense of an opponent who has been just about hopeless against him of late.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
[polldaddy poll=9410747]
Yep, Djoker 7-5 6-3
Nole in two sets… Andy will make a good fist of it but wont be near enough to get the whole kaboodle done
I wish if Murry wins this time …..
Andy did not play well against faded non-existent Rafa! He will be non-existent against superb Novak!
23:9 after today’s final…
”Murray was not unbeatable today. It was an open match, an even match,” Nadal said. ”I didn’t play my best level, but I didn’t play badly. I played a medium level, which was not enough to beat Murray.”
I remember a time when even Rafa said he didn’t have to play his best to win tournaments on clay.
Rafa is almost 30 now, not 24. You cant expect him to play mediocre tennis and still beat anyone on clay.
Rafa is not wrong in saying its an open match, when Murray faced 13 BPs. Its just that Rafa was playing subpar tennis, playing worse than Murray hence he lost.
I’m guessing Rafa subconsciously was unwillingly to meet Djoko in the final, he wasnt confident that he’s able to beat Djoko.
On hindsight, this loss may be a blessing in disguise. At least he can focus on Rome and think of how he can beat Djoko there. Imagine Rafa playing crappy tennis and lost to Djoko in the final here, it would make it even tougher for him when facing Djoko at Rome should they reach the QF.
Djoko is tough to beat anywhere, but for Rafa, the surface and conditions at Rome are certainly more preferrable than Madrid.
Please. Djoko and Murray are just one year younger. Djoko is at his peak and Murray on his worst surface didn’t need his best tennis to win. Federer at near 35 is playing slam finals.
Nadal isn’t beating Nole in Rome or on Neptune for that matter.
So? Rafa is in decline, is that what you mean? So we have to accept that if its the case!
No. It was your point above actually.
I made mine. No need for me to spell it out any clearer.
Fed’s style of play is completely different than of Rafa’s! He conserves energy, avoids long rallies, has strong serve on which he can rely on any surface! Rafa OTOH plays mostly defensive tennis thinking he can do the same as in his best years! But he can’t! I always said Rafa’s not as fast as before and can no longer be put under long rallies for three consecutive tourneys! His physical endurance gets challenged! And he then makes uncaracteristic errors and his on court movement is jeopardized…
Little has changed in Rafa’s game over the years! Without strong serve he is forced to work hard for every point. If and when he gets involved in long gruelling matches he tends to tire himself to the very limit, and that is when his opponents smell blood. Sousa did it! Andy realised Rafa is not in his MC form and is slower than two weeks ago. Add to it faster surface and conditions which neutralize Rafa’s top spin and you get tired subpar Rafa who fears his own service games knowing how vulnerable he is hense he gets broken so often…
Rome is more convenient environment for Rafa! He just doesn’t need to panic or read too much into this worthless loss to Andy! Rafa was not ready to even test Novak, and definitely not on his worst clay…I believe a different Rafa to show up in Rome… The draw is tough but Rafa is used to it! He needs challenges! He will be rested both physically and emotionally! Go Rafa!
Vamos Champ!
Yeah, what’s disappointing is Rafa is playing defensive tennis yet making so many errors. I would rather he be more aggressive, goes for his shots and makes some errors while doing it.
Everyone knows how to play against Rafa now, by simply hitting harder, going for broke and break his defense. In the past, it’s almost impossible to break his defense on clay, not forgetting how good Rafa was back then in turning defense into offense. Now, Rafa is slower, not hitting with depth and so his defensive and offensive skills has all gone downhill and worse still, he’s so unwilling to move forward but continues playing defensively.
What Rafa says is the way I saw the match. I didn’t think Rafa or Andy played their best or their worst. It surprised me that Andy won in 2 sets – perhaps that’s the only way he would have won.
Nole v Kei was a better match, tennis-wise, imo. Kei played very well and gave Nole trouble. If Kei had a giant (Raonic) serve – he’d have a shot at #1 – that’s my opinion. Kei is smart and mentally/emotionally solid. Also Kei’s body has handled a tough schedule this season better than I’ve seen. Impressive Kei.
Nole is just better in all areas, Nole doesn’t have a serve weapon like Federer’s was but it can be close enough, and Nole is the most balanced athlete I’ve watched in tennis.
I picked Nole in 2 but Andy could be trouble and we’ll see.
Rafa at his best was able to mix defense and offense. In the match with Murray, Rafa tried some poorly executed drop shots. That’s not like him. Rafa usually is pretty smart about when to use the drop shot. I thought that he might have been tired in some of those long rallies and that’s why he did it.
Rafa cannot play defense from the baseline these days. He’s older, has lost a step or two and can’t slug it out from way behind the baseline. In 2013 Rafa was brilliant at transitioning from defense to offense. That is why he was so successful. But now he seems to get stuck in defensive mode, allowing his opponents to dictate.
Good points NNY! Also like some of the points raised by the other posters.
I won’t repeat those points but would like to add something. It is true that Rafa has slowed down a littlee bit and his energy level is not the same so his defense is not as effective now. However, the reasons for his losses extend beyond that…. Never forget to take into account the evolution of the game! When you speak of Rafa’s 2005-2008 clay court dominance for examples, the number of players who knew how to beat him was a lot less. It happens…when you are in the limelight for so long, players and coaches devise patterns over time that hurt you more. I see now how many players intelligently attack Rafa’s forehand as a pattern of play. Some like to draw him off court with good angles to his backhand before unleashing forehands DTL. THe patterns to trouble rafa have become more and more known over the year and that complicates matters further for his older style of play.Look at how Fog plays him now! Many lower ranked players try those patterns way too frequently now as they think they also know the success formula.
In the past, so many players (including federer) were making the mistake of over-attacking rafa’s backhand because they were afraid of his forehand! They would keep peppering his backhand with pace, which was never the best of tactics.
This was just an illustration. The point is that the game and the field keeps evolving so you must evolve too!
I would never say Nadal is a defensive player. He is an aggressive counterpuncher in general and becomes an aggressive player overall when playing really well.
Rafa is trying diff things in practice but can’t quite implement in matches.
I am hoping the match against Murray won’t stop the momentum. He was making real progress. Those drop shots were just…PLAIN BAD. His mind was not working clearly. All of those shots were easy forehands DTL for him but he was not going for them.
All in Rafa’s mind.
It’s like a mental switch went off when he was injured AO 2014. He was a different player after that and age is not a sudden shift like that.
Players have only figured out how to beat a mentally fragile player. Rafa proved this showing he could still win when he is mentally strong at WTF, MC and Barcelona.
Murray was no different in MC and Madrid.
Rafa was.
agree with hawks. exactly my viewpoint.
also vr yesterday you wrote that you hated to admit and write it but rafa had collapsed mentally. surely that’s the centre of the problem?
Dont know what you mean!
Rafa has evolved enough over time to deal with the field when he is playing well. He was NOT playing well against Murray.
@Amy, yeah, it was almost as if he was having brain cramps! Those drop shots were beyond terrible. I am not even talking about the quality of the drop shot but the fact that he did not choose to play a regular forehand DTL to finish the point esp when he was missing drop shots. Those overhead misses were signs of tentativeness.
I won’t say he is stuck in the 2015 puddle. He has progressed and he surely feels LESS nervous on court or is at least able to manage it much better. He also says he is no longer getting tense like before and he is very honest. Perhaps he also does not want to admit to himself he still faces those issues to an extent. Hard to explain the loss in Madrid. I can only hope he can carry the momentum which he built in Barcelona and MC.
Dont agree VR. Its nothing new about attacking Rafa’s FH. Everyone knows from day 1 that Rafa used to camp at his BH corner. Its just that everyone back then feared Rafa’s FH, Fed included so no one wanted to attack Rafa’s FH unless absolutely necessary.
Its just that Rafa’s FH has lost some of its sting, so more and more players are willing to attack his FH now. Rafa’s loss of footspeed isnt helping him either.
Rafa used to have a very good CCBH too in the past, hence making it very tough to beat him and esp on clay. His BH had gone from being an asset to a liability after his numerous knee injuries and is more hit or miss these days.
and since when did rafa miss overheads vr?? that’s surely nerves. he did that last year although i agree he is better than then but i don’t believe that his problems are behind him whatever he may say. it’s a question of degree and it may not be as severe but the fragility is unquestionably an issue. you yourself were saying yesterday that you didn’t want rafa to say there was no problem!! it’s not really a question of honesty but of what somebody is prepared to admit to themself.
“ts just that Rafa’s FH has lost some of its sting, so more and more players are willing to attack his FH now.
lol…I wrote the same thing, no? Regarding federer, it took him some time to realize he can benefit a lot by attacking Rafa’s forehand with powerful inside-out forehands of his own.
The patterns of play that harm him more are now being used more frequently, no doubt about that .
Whereas anxiety affects speed, consistency and aggression – everything that Rafa lacked after AO final with few exceptions.
Age wouldn’t do that so suddenly and it’s his denial now that’s more troublesome.
agree with hawks yet again about the denial (part and parcel of the endless and uncharacteristic excuses rafa has been so prone to this last year) his denial worries me just about more than anything..
Don’t know how you can ignore the evolution factor completely… Rafa had to evolve and develop a lethal forehand DTL because his old patterns were falling short against some opponents. He was able to beat all players with below par first serves on clay but had to evolve his serve to beat Novak on CLAY even ! That wide serve to the righty’s forehand in the deuce court.
Very important to keep evolving. Rafa knows that too … that change in standing position on the ad court is part of that. It is just that the basics and the foundations are not working well yesterday. He NEEDS the basics and core parts of his game working and only then will the little new changes work.
In fact, I though the hit the wide serve on the deuce court really well all week but could not take adv.
There is something very strange about his CC backhand. It is ALMOST NEVER penetrative in Masters 100 clay events ! It is only in RG that he finds the extra gear and flattens it out a lot more.
@Hawkeye, yeah, he has not been the same after that final…
Too much ‘blame’ on Rafa’s mentality. I doubt he’s as anxious as in 2015. Imo, his problem is expending too much energy, physical and mental, on the court figuring out how to fight with his opponent.
Its like he wants to play his brand of tennis regardless of who he faces, ie allowing his opponents to play their game and dictating, thinking of ways to solve problems, rather than taking things into his own hands and calling the shot. He has forgotten that he’s older now, not as quick or as powerful (compared to his younger days) and so his ‘old’ way of playing the game will not work as well now.
Its obvious Rafa was running out of ideas against Murray in the SF, his errors were due to his wariness of Murray’s capabilities in serving well when he had to, returning aggressively when he had to and throwing in different shots when he had to.
Perhaps Rafa is just not comfortable playing at the Madrid court; he was good at problem solving in MC and Barcelona despite his defensive play.
@ lucky 3:31PM,
Me too! I would prefer Rafa changed his approach mid match in an attempt to be aggressive even if he made more errors!
I get depressed over the way Rafa loses his matches these days: being beaten in the same manner by any opponent even the lower ranked ones. It’s sufficient to hit hard and hit through Rafa whose defense has so become readable….he may have tried something different with those drop shots but failed to execute it…
And, it is not that Rafa is intentionally playing defense! NO WAY! He knows exactly what to do but some doubts and nervrs hold him back.
I am also not ruling out the theory that he got extra nervous upon realizing he was THAT close to meeting Novak.
Also agree with @AMY that when expectations are high, he starts to get more nervous.
Of course he gets nervous but he’s not the only one feeling that way! I mean Fed or anyone else would also feel nervous! They are all humans.
If your post at 4.36pm was addressed to me, then I dont see where I said Rafa didnt need to evolve. I just commented about his FH and how players didnt have much success attacking it in the past.
I have been reading the discussion with interest.
I still think that some of it mental and some of it is tactical. Those drop shots were just plain bad! The wrong shot at the wrong time and e executed poorly. Rafa is smarter than that. It’s like he got tired or something and just three in a drop shot to end the rally.
Neither guy played as well as they did at MC. Murray was very aggressive when he faced break points. But Rafa wasn’t doing enough.
We know that rafa’s serve is a liability, especially against the top players. He has struggled to convert break points even as he has played better and started winning titles.
A player cannot stay static. Adjustments must be made as a player gets older. Mentally and physically players can diminish as they get older. Along with the anxiety and mental aspect, players have to continue to work on aspects of their games.
I am hoping that this was just a bad day for Rafa and he will get back on track.
I’ll say it again.
Physical decline is not so sudden likecirceascwith Rafa. ZERO evidence that players have suddenly figured 2013 Rafa out because that player disappeared in the 2014 AO final and never returned.
You are confusing common nervousness with severe anxiety the latter of which can easilty result in the tentative error prone play chronically on display in Rafa’s game Lanier not as bad as last year in general.
Rafa went for consistently making slam finals to suddenly not making it past quarters. That’s not age in my opinion and puzzling to me why this isn’t more obvious.
But to each their own.
novak does not take any player as an easy target as he knows well that game always depends on the moment it is played and anyone can have great day or bad day. having said that, Novak will win in three sats.Mury will try very hard as his record against Novak is not so good. we can expect very long match with long rallies,
Go Nole
I expect a straight set victory for Djoko. I doubt Djoko wants to engage in long rallies with Murray; he will play something like he did at MC 2013 final against Rafa, ie all guns blazing.
If Djoko wins today, he would have beaten all his big four rivals at least 23 times each (and Rafa 25), simply incredible! Not even Rafa could do that!
This is why there is little difference between the Big Three when it comes to GOAT. After watching Sampras earn that title imo I never thought I’d see a day when there would be three players playing at the same time that I consider better than Pete.
Golden Era.
Nole in three.
Djoker in straights in a snoozefest. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if Murray makes it competitive.
Me too!
I am not picking Murray to beat Novak. I did it a few times last year and got burned. I have to go with Novak until Murray shows me something. He sure didn’t against Rafa!
Rafa is right about the match with Murray. I said after watching it, that Rafa was in that match. it was competitive. But Rafa did not play well enough. It’s true that a Rafa less than his best should be enough to beat Murray. But that wasn’t the case in large part because of converting only 2 out of 13 break chances. I think that was where the match was lost.
Murray will have to come out playing a lot better in the final. Otherwise it’s going to be a straight set win for Novak.
Nole losing less than eight games.
NID
+1
When Rafa faces good returners like Novak or Andy he is naturally nervous about his own service games! He faced danger with Querrey who started off agressively and cought Rafa by surprise! Rafa could have lost to Sousa but found a way to win and was generously helped by Sousa’s one lousy service game!
As far as I have seen, most of us here said the same thing before the match with Andy: Rafa must lift his level, must play better than in his two previous matches! But he didn’t and he lost! Thus his loss does not come as a total surprise! The whole tourney was bad for Rafa! He did not play at the same level probably due to being tired and mentally exhausted on one hand, but also crippled by the realization that he has not sufficiently improved to beat Novak, on the other. All of it contributed to Rafa’s loss to Murray!
I don’t buy this anxiety theory! If that was the case Rafa would have lost to Andy in MC where the pressure was higher! No, Rafa just needed some rest and was unwilling to face Novak on his least favorite clay and under the roof!
Rafa will do better in Rome although his game must be perfect to be able to beat Novak which is still not the case…
Agreed Nats!
Agree with 95% but anxiety is neither constant, logical or predictable.
Come on Andy! What a second serve by Novak though
Djokovic is grinding it out now…. Andy has no option but to reduce his UE count
At least Murray made it interesting getting to a third set.
Andy lost the length on his groundstrokes and Novak was pressing hard. That missed forehand to lose the opening point was unlucky….
I hope Andy can make this competitive in this set.
DF! 30-30! Keep pressing Muzz
Awesome length! BP! Get itttttt
Novak Djokovic tries to do too much with the second serve and floats it long for a DF! NICE! Game on
Wow! Novak double faults away the break!
Murray is hanging in there. This is going to be interesting, for a change!
NNY, Murray is getting under Novak’s skin. He needs to hang in there and he might have his chances to win.
vr,
You are absolutely right! Novak has a meltdown after he double faulted away the break! If Andy can keep it together, he has a shot!
yeahhh! the quality of the first serve MUST not drop .