On paper, the Mutua Madrid Open final literally could not be more of a mismatch. It’s the No. 1 seed against a lucky loser.
However, Jan-Lennard Struff cannot be discounted. As one of the biggest servers in the entire draw, the German has unsurprisingly thrived in the high altitude of Madrid. He lost to Aslan Karatsev in the final round of qualifying, but a remarkable–and historic–run has since ensured. Struff is the first-ever lucky loser in the championship match of a Masters 1000 tournament following victories over Lorenzo Sonego, Ben Shelton, Dusan Lajovic, Pedro Cachin, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and none other than Karatsev.
Struff’s reward is a showdown against Carlos Alcaraz on Saturday evening.
That sounds daunting, and it is, but Struff has an encouraging history with Alcaraz on the other side of the net. The current world No. 65 prevailed 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-2 at the 2021 French Open and lost 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 at Wimbledon in 2022.
“We played an amazing match at Wimbledon last year and I was very close to beating him, but he pulled off unbelievable shots in the (fourth-set) tiebreak,” Struff reflected. “This is going to be different; this is in Spain, in Madrid. I think he is 20-0 on Spanish clay courts, so it is going to be very tough. I have to go for it, otherwise I will have no chance. I will try my best to beat him and win my first title.”
As Struff indicated, Alcaraz is in Madrid is much different from Alcaraz at Wimbledon and he has obviously improved drastically since they met at Roland Garros in 2021. The 20-year-old Spaniard is a Grand Slam champion (2022 U.S. Open), former world No. 1 (currently No. 2), is 28-2 this season, and is 11-1 lifetime in Madrid. So far this fortnight he has dismissed Emil Ruusuvuori, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov, and Borna Coric while dropping just one set to Ruusuvuori along the way.
For those reasons, of course, Alcaraz is a massive favorite. That being said, this could be more competitive than expected. The top seed hasn’t been at his absolute best at this tournament and Struff’s serve is red hot. Over his past two matches the 33-year-old has fired 29 aces and not once in the main draw has he been broken more than twice in any match.
A straight-setter is probably in the cards, but at least one tiebreaker would not be at all surprising.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
WWW?
I know it’s crazy but I’m rooting for Jan-Lennard Struff to win, he is a huge underdog and I won’t be surprised if he loses 6-0, 6-0 😂😂😂 it’s definitely possible.
But what a Cinderella Story this would be if Struff pulls out a win he has done it before on clay defeating Alcaraz 3-0 in the French Open so just maybe he might be inspired to win, opportunity like this don’t come for players like struff.
If I was him I will play my very best tennis today I will leave no stone unturned, my heart, my blood and sweat I will lay it all on the court today.
Wish him the best but this is almost an impossible task for him but we will see 😂👍.
Struff will make it competitive….but Charlie in 2.
Alcaraz 1.40 chance
Bookies we’re taking the piss at 1.04-1.08
After a horrible first game Struff is marmalising Alcaraz’s serve.
Come on Struffy!!
So annoying!! Struff donates his serve. No first serves. Dfs.
Alcaraz actually hasn’t been playing well imo.
40% first serves for Struff. That is woeful.The top players get too many favours.
1st set luckbox win. Not impressed
Pretty poor set of tennis from Alcaraz.
If Struff had a higher first serve percentage could easily have gone the other way.
Absolutely zero resemblance between Alcaraz and Rafa at the same age in that set.
What is Struff’s first serve percentage?
It’s terrible.
Ok apparently it’s 38%.
Letting Alcaraz back in the match.
So frustrating. If Struff had a decent first serve percentage he could win this match.
Struff bossing this match.
If Struff had served well he would already have won this match.
Ok I have had enough. Gonna win but boy has he been mediocre.
Really enjoyed that match. Struff played out of his skin but am wondering if the altitude helped his big game.
Carlos’ serve and forehand right off but grabbed the match by the scruff of the neck in the third and served it out so calm and collected. Well done. Like him so much, just smiles and enjoys whatever.
OMG there’s got to be a happy medium between coaches not being allowed to say anything and MARVIN, whom I wanted to throttle!
Thought Marvin was fab!! But then I wanted Struffy to win.
I really really don’t like on court coaching though. I wish they would revert to former rules.
I don’t like it either! Don’t mind encourasgement but not the extent to which Marvin takes it! Scareeeee!
BTW Andy now back in top 50. Amazing and good for RG. Presumably wny he entered challenger.
Yes I saw he beat Tommy Paul in final! Good win because Paul has been playing really well.
If he has a good run in Rome could be seeded for RG. Would make a bid difference. Not so much for RG but for wimby..
PS Marvin rocks!😀
Just seen others saying sth which is surely true: That letting coaches blither on endlessly helps the top players with expensive coaches and huge entourage s.
It’s not right imo.
And Ferrero is easily one of the most vocal. Barking out endless instructions.
Personally I wanted Struff to win just because its about time he realised his potential. But I also like Alcaraz. I dont get it why some people are against him even at this early stage of his career .He’s a player in his own right,not a rival for Rafa
I don’t get it either. He’s more a rival for Sinner than Rafa at this point! And whether they will meet at RG is very much up in the air, even if Rafa plays. It’s great that as the older generation winds down their supremacy, however slowly and defiantly (as it should be! They should hang in as long as they can) there are these fresh personalities rising up who will keep the game exciting. Alcaraz is going to have his own path — his career won’t be Rafa’s and it won’t be like Novak or Federer’s either. And that’s the joy of it. As for Struff, he still managed to nab one of the coolest records of all time by being the only lucky loser to make it to a M1000 final!
Jan-Lennard Struff really tried but coming close don’t win you titles you have to just win it 😂, he made many mistakes in the 1st set especially his serve was poor and some critical double faults.
Struff made the match competitive and exciting but I feel bad for him, he was playing against Alcaraz and the crowd probably his nerves got to him but he is no rookie man should won 😂.
Anyways congrats to Alcaraz what an amazing player, players who defeat Alcaraz must never be moved by emotions you must be confident and match intensity.
J. Sinner and C. Norrie defeated Alcaraz in the finals this season after losing the 1st set if you watch the rest of the match you can see the pushed him so hard and believed they could win their body language said it all even after losing the 1st set, struff lost this match before it started he didn’t look confident so nervous 😔.
Instead of buying dinner I put the money on Struff to win, I went to bed hungry last night 😂😂😂 DAMN YOU STRUFF!!! 😂😂😂 I starved because of you 😂😂😂
Just joking a little can you believe alcaraz to win was 1.06 and Jan-Lennard Struff to win was 10.0 wow the over games and the over 2.5 sets was amazing wow.
Struff should have won opportunities like this are hard to come by for players like struff no offense.
👋
I know I am mean about him. I just can’t stand how the commies hype him.
Also I don’t like the braggadocio swaggering in relation to the crowd.
Was also very very annoyed by some of the things he said recently about how he could beat Rafa at RG and wanted to win 14 titles! Can you imagine Rafa saying something like that at his age! Toni would have been furious.
I thought it was extraordinarily insensitive and disrespectful given Rafa is out with injury.
There are plenty of people who post here who dislike him a lot more than I do mind.
Off court I can see he is likeable.
I do prefer Sinner.Quietly gets on with it
I adore Jannik!
But he gets injured very easily and lets matches with lower ranked players go on way too long thereby jeopardising his chances later in tournament.
I always support him against Alcaraz and Rune. People forget he had a match point at the USO against Alcaraz and missed a bh …
I agree with you ss and Struff is 33! Nearly retirement age…only joshing!
I like Sinners game too. Much prefer him to Alcaraz or Rune.
Hope he wins a Slam this year.
Where do you think his best chance would be?
I would like to see him win a slam as well.
US Open. As you said he had a match point against eventual winner.
But you never know , could be Wimby — 5 sets against Nole.
@Margot exactly 👍.
I just feel bad for him he really started playing well after losing to Aslan Karatsev in qualifying stage.
I thought he would pull it off, my heart wanted him to win but I knew it was almost impossible for him to win it, he tried tho 💪💯.
Remember watching Struff on grass in Germany a few years ago and at that point he had almost no wins on grass despite having the perfect game.Must have been confidence.
His powerful s & v game is so dependant on his serve, if that’s not firing he’s very vulnerable. Against Carlos his FSP was below 50% for much of the time. Though Carlos’s FSP wasn’t that great either.
I doubt Alcaraz will beat Djokovic or Nadal when they are playing well. I think he’s still a notch below them.
When Alcaraz broke Struff in the 3rd, Struff had won 8 more points and 5 more receiving points. Alcaraz just has a knack at coming out the victor. No disrespect to Struff but he would be lucky to 8 games against Nadal on clay.
That “knack at coming out the victor” is what makes for #1 players though. They all have it. Struff did play Nadal (only once) on clay in 2019 and got 10 games. 7-5 7-5.
Not the same type of knack the others had. There seems to be a bigger element of luck involved in Alcarez’s game. The lob that hit the back of the line to save the 3rd break point at 5:4 being a prime example. Stuff serving 40% when he was averaging 70 for the event, being another. Eventually that luck is going to run out for him.
Meh. All players get similar types of “luck” in matches. Balls that land in when they should have gone out. A talented opponent flailing or getting injured. All common. How many people not playing even close to their best did Federer face in his dominant era? They were countless, in part because of intimidation.
Luck, as you note, is inconsistent. It comes and goes. But that is exactly my point: being number one requires consistency. That is how he got there in the first place. Whether you enjoy his risk-taking form tennis or not, impossible to call it pure luck when it is successful again and again.
I don’t think it’s as simple as you’re making it. All the advantages combined seem to tilt the balance in his favor, even when he was clearly the worse player for the majority of the match.
Most of the tour is still adjusting to his unpredictable, high risk style of play, which is why Sinner is able to get the upper hand on him now.
Alcaraz has unquestionably been lucky in coming on the scene at the time of the decline of the big 3. No Fed. Novak out for long periods because of the vaccine mandate. Rafa out injured for long periods. Multiply this further if you look at the time of the big 4 when he would have had to go through at least 2 of them.
Rafa has often spoken about players being unlucky because they had to play during the dominance of the big 3/big 4 and that in other eras they would have won slams and masters. Well we are in that era already. Look at who Murray had to play to win slams compared with Alcaraz. Murray had to go through them in every final and frequently in the semis. Alcaraz got to play Ruud. There is simply no comparison.
If Alcaraz had been 18/ 19 in his breakout season at the time of the big 4 he wouldn’t have won Miami and Madrid and the USO. No way. Wouldn’t have won Madrid and IW this year either most likely.
Also look at his peers. Zverev is a shadow of the player he was post injury. Tsitsi is playing very sub par( although Alcaraz has the measure of him pretty much generally). Ruud has scarcely won a match. FAA has been poor.
There is no question he has been lucky with timing.
I don’t doubt his talent. But he came on the scene at a very opportune time.
Oh and there is absolutely no way he would have got to #1 at the time of the big 4 in his first year or even his second. Look at the points he won last year! One of the lowest counts for a #1 ever.
Compare his lot with Andy Murray and you’ll see how fortunate he has been.
I would also argue the field was stronger at the time of the big 3/4.
Delpo, Stan, Tsonga, Ferrer, Cilic, Berdych, Nishikori were the stalwarts of the past. Then there was Thiem who was brilliant on clay and became a threat on all surfaces. He also is a shadow of the player he was. He could unquestionably have beaten Alcaraz. So many players shadows post injury..
Atm the standard of the ATP is pretty dire imo.
I guess I don’t enjoy playing historical “what if” games when it comes to sports. Every player faces their own set of circumstances and opponents and they have no say in that. Alcaraz can only play the people who are in the draw. He can’t play Rod Laver or Jimmy Connors or Guga Kuerten, any more than he can play Novak or Rafa in their primes. And if he grew up in their times, he’d be a different person as well (with different influences and training), so it’s all just wild conjecture.
For sure, the ATP is in a transitional time right now and it’s not going to be like the Big 3 era anymore. But that said, I’ve been following tennis a LONG time and so long as there has been an internet, people have been saying “weak era” about every single era. The grass is always greener …
As for Anonymous’ comments, the thing about truly high-risk tennis that stays in gear is that it’s not that easy at all to “adjust” to it. Of course, it can be streaky, but also Alcaraz is so young, he won’t even be able to buy a drink at the US Open, so his style is very likely to mature. Sinner is a tough (and fun) match-up for him, and tennis of course is always about match-ups. But it’s not like many other players have the stuff to play him like Sinner does. Sinner, like Alcaraz, is a future slam winner. Neither is at their peak yet and much is yet to be seen about how both evolve and who else steps up from the younger gen.
I hope Rune does.
Agree with most of what you say too.