Madrid final preview and prediction: Alcaraz vs. Struff

On paper, the Mutua Madrid Open final literally could not be more of a mismatch. It’s the No. 1 seed against a lucky loser.

However, Jan-Lennard Struff cannot be discounted. As one of the biggest servers in the entire draw, the German has unsurprisingly thrived in the high altitude of Madrid. He lost to Aslan Karatsev in the final round of qualifying, but a remarkable–and historic–run has since ensured. Struff is the first-ever lucky loser in the championship match of a Masters 1000 tournament following victories over Lorenzo Sonego, Ben Shelton, Dusan Lajovic, Pedro Cachin, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and none other than Karatsev.

Struff’s reward is a showdown against Carlos Alcaraz on Saturday evening.

That sounds daunting, and it is, but Struff has an encouraging history with Alcaraz on the other side of the net. The current world No. 65 prevailed 6-4, 7-6(3), 6-2 at the 2021 French Open and lost 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-4 at Wimbledon in 2022.

“We played an amazing match at Wimbledon last year and I was very close to beating him, but he pulled off unbelievable shots in the (fourth-set) tiebreak,” Struff reflected. “This is going to be different; this is in Spain, in Madrid. I think he is 20-0 on Spanish clay courts, so it is going to be very tough. I have to go for it, otherwise I will have no chance. I will try my best to beat him and win my first title.”

As Struff indicated, Alcaraz is in Madrid is much different from Alcaraz at Wimbledon and he has obviously improved drastically since they met at Roland Garros in 2021. The 20-year-old Spaniard is a Grand Slam champion (2022 U.S. Open), former world No. 1 (currently No. 2), is 28-2 this season, and is 11-1 lifetime in Madrid. So far this fortnight he has dismissed Emil Ruusuvuori, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov, and Borna Coric while dropping just one set to Ruusuvuori along the way.

For those reasons, of course, Alcaraz is a massive favorite. That being said, this could be more competitive than expected. The top seed hasn’t been at his absolute best at this tournament and Struff’s serve is red hot. Over his past two matches the 33-year-old has fired 29 aces and not once in the main draw has he been broken more than twice in any match.

A straight-setter is probably in the cards, but at least one tiebreaker would not be at all surprising.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2