For a whole host of reasons, it is tougher than usual to assess the 2020 ATP season. The main reason is that the rankings don’t exactly reflect what happened this year. That was just one impact that the coronavirus had on tennis, another being that it completely wiped out four-plus months of the schedule.
Nonetheless, the good news is there was an actual 2020 season and it came to a successful enough conclusion at the Nitto ATP Finals in London. Now that it’s over, it’s time to look back on my preseason predictions for the year-end championship field.
1. Rafael Nadal – Nadal finished second in the rankings instead of first and was actually third in 2020 points (behind Novak Djokovic and also Dominic Thiem). Still, my call for Nadal to have a big season was not too far off the pick. He played in only two slams—and won one of them (a 13th French Open title). Plus a huge chunk of the clay-court swing is wiped out, and that is obviously where the Spaniard would have seized a leg up on the rest of the competition.
2. Novak Djokovic – Given Djokovic’s unexpected U.S. Open default and his late-season slump starting with the French Open final against Nadal, it would have been plausible for him to finish No. 2 instead if No. 1. To his credit, though, he was simply too good prior to the coronavirus hiatus. Djokovic started the year 26-0, not losing a single time until his infamous “loss” to Pablo Carreno Busta in New York.
3. Dominic Thiem – Did I get this one wrong? Hypothetically, yes; technically, no. Thiem finished No. 3 in the world, as predicted, but he was actually second in 2020 points alone (both going into the Nitto ATP Finals and coming out of it). The Austrian’s most important moment, of course, by earning the long-awaited Grand Slam breakthrough at the U.S. Open. He was also runner-up for a second consecutive year at the O2 Arena.
4. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Like many, I overrated Tsitsipas in terms of his 2020 production. The Greek finished the season two spots lower than this (sixth) and based on 2020 points alone he would have been seventh. It could have been a lot better, but Tsitsipas fell one set short of reaching the Roland Garros final and he suffered the collapse of the year against Borna Coric in round four of the U.S. Open.
5. Roger Federer – Well, Federer is No. 5! Of course, that is where the accuracy of this pick ends. Based on this season’s points alone, the 39-year-old Swiss would be outside the top 100. Nobody benefited more from the rankings restructure than Federer, who reached the Australian Open semifinals and then missed the rest of 2020 due to knee surgery. At least I was correct in saying that Federer would fall in the rankings….
6. Alexander Zverev – I was pretty much right on the money with Zverev. He is officially No. 5 in the rankings but was No. 7 in 2020 points. Yes, take the average of those two and you get six. Congratulations to me! As predicted, the German really didn’t take the next step in his career (although he did come within two points of doing so at Flushing Meadows) but he also didn’t decline. For several reasons, it will be very interesting to see what happens with him in 2021.
7. Denis Shapovalov – A lot of people had Shapovalov making the jump to Nitto ATP Finals caliber, but it didn’t happen. That being said, he wasn’t hopelessly far off. The 21-year-old Canadian finished 12th in the rankings and he would have been in mathematical London contention all the way to the Paris Masters (he ended up withdrawing from that event). Shapovalov started hot, but late-season struggles ended his hopes.
8. Andrey Rublev – It has to be said that nobody was more on target than me when it came to predicting Rublev’s rise to prominence. I predicted a “Texas-sized” 2020 campaign for the 23-year-old Russian and that is exactly what it was. He was the ATP’s solo leader in titles with five and he advanced to slam quarterfinals at the U.S. Open and French Open. A debut appearance in London was well-deserved. Rublev finished…you guessed it…No. 8 in the world (although he was even better in truth—sixth in 2020 points).
Alternates
9. Daniil Medvedev – Medvedev did well to move up from fifth at the end of 2019 to fourth. But a prediction of a “sophomore slump” really wasn’t that far off. Going into the Nitto ATP Finals, the Russian was sixth in 2020 points and only a few-hundred ahead of No. 8 Diego Schwartzman. By his lofty standards, Medvedev struggled prior to the hiatus and even for a while after it. But his hot streak that concluded with Paris and London titles changed everything.
10. Alex de Minaur – Well, this pick quite simply missed the mark. But there is a valid excuse: injuries. De Minaur was sidelined from his home Grand Slam and actually played in only one ATP tournament prior to the hiatus. He returned with a vengeance by making a run to the U.S. Open quarterfinals before being inconsistent the rest of the way. Still, that U.S. Open performance and a runner-up showing in Antwerp should have his confidence—and mine—restored heading into 2021.
Among the players whom I underrated in 2020 were Schwartzman, Carreno Busta, and Milos Raonic. Only taking this year’s points into account, Schwartzman would be No. 8 while PCB and Raonic would round out the top 10 (the latter two would have been London alternates based on 2020 points). Carreno Busta’s season will obviously be remembered for the Djokovic default, but he actually played extremely well on his own accord just about from start to finish.
anyone else make predictions?
No, due to lack of interest compared to the other tournaments.
When is the 2021 year end predictions coming as well as slam winners
I’ve already made a few in other posts but I’ll be more specific.
Murray and Cilic won’t make the top 20 in 2021
Cilic will hover between 40-60
Murray could achieve a similar ranking
Wawrinka won’t make the top 10 and most likely will slip outside the top 20
Anderson might make the top 30 in 2021 if he stays injury free.
Nadal will get his number 1 ranking back.
Djokovic will slip to number 2
Medvedev will move to 3 but Djokovic should be able to maintain a decent gap due to his superior clay court game.
Thiem will stay at 4 but very close to Medvedev
Zverev will move to number 5
Federer and Tsitispas will compete for 6 and 7
Federer will put pressure on Zverev but reckon Zverev will just hold onto 5.
Rublev holds into number 8. Unless Tsitsipas doesnt improve then Rublev get 7 but I doubt it.
Schwartzman might slip back outside the top 10 same with Berretini however I don’t really see who can replace them so maybe they will hold their rankings for now.
Sinner will go close to breaking the top 10 but will sit just outside I think at 10-15.
Humbert and Coric will break the top 20 but 10-20 is probably their potential.
Felix Auger-Aliassime should break the top 15 by end of 2021 also.
Dimitrov will improve his ranking in 2021 also when he gets a new coach. Probably goes close to breaking top 10 and might be the one that replaces Schwartzman or Beretinni.
Monfils will slip to 15-20 and don’t know what’s going on with Goffin but expect him to improve in 2021 unless his injured.
The rest I expect them to continue doing their thing.
Australian Open is a 5 horse race (My 2 picks are Nadal or Medvedev)
Nadal should win another RG. Dont see any major threats yet. If Thiem continues his dominant H2H then he will be well positioned if they meet again at RG
Djokovic or Fed will probably win Wimbledon.
Medvedev or Nadal will probably win the USO.
Tsonga and Verdasco will likely slip outside the top 100 and consider retirement.
Nishikori will hover around.
Good job on 2020 picks, esp Rublev, Joker, and Thiem.
– I see Rublev having another huge year…probably one Slam
– Joker wins AO, but that’s it for Slams
– Rafa’s streak at RG comes to an end….Thiem?…Med?
_Fed returns, but if he makes the Quarters at Slams or Olympics he should be pleased.
Does Scoot ever pick Rafa to win anything??!
Why on earth would Medvedev of all people beat him at RG when he has never done anything on clay? I mean seriously?! I seem to remember Scoot predicting Med, Rublev or Tsistsi to beat Rafa at Rg this year. It’s a constant theme going on for ages now…
Medvedev at RG hahahahahahaha
He’s always been a dark horse
Nadal just won RG 60 62 75 against Djokovic-the 2nd best clay courter in the world without dropping a set all tournmanent.
I think there will be signs Nadal is vulnerable before he loses.
That score line doesnt suggest he’s vulnverable yet.
Rublev winning a slam in 2021? Anything is possible but I reckon there’s about 1% chance of that happening.
Djokovic is more vulnerable than he’s been a long time right now. I’ll be surprised if he wins it this time.
Nadal beat Rublev without breaking a sweat and Medvedev beat him 3-0 at USO and Med’s form was questionable.
Rublev is far too one dimensional
to do what?
oh to win a slam. Yeah, definitely not in 2021. He will win one eventually.
Dimitrov and Raonic will probably put pressure on Schwartzman and Beretinni for the number 9 and 10 positions. 9 and 10 is a really good achievement for those 2 players and will be difficult to hold onto.
Berrettini is gonna be a lot lower than 9, 10, 11, or 12….
Sinner will go very close to breaking the top 10 for the first time in 2021. I expect him to make the quarters (and maybe even the semis) of a major or 2.
He could go close to winning a masters event.
The top 7 is the closest it’s ever been right now. Each player is breathing down the other one’s neck. It may not be apparent in the ranking and points yet but that’s what I’m seeing.
If Thiem doesnt have a very solid year, he could drop to 5.
Federer is the real unknown factor. He could hold his 5 ranking and challenge for 4 with Thiem and Zverev or he could move to 6.
Very interesting year of tennis ahead.
why only seven?
Because they are the group that I think the gap is the least. Rublev is not far away and maybe this year my opinion will change. He could very well evolve into something special, it’s possible if he improves a few things and adds some more variety to his play.
Sorry, something even more special. he is already a special player by most people’s standards. nothing against Rublev, just think the top group still have this measure for now.