Is there a more hopeless proposition than trying to predict the Nitto ATP Finals field at the start of the season?
Nope!…. Well, at least not in my case!
I at least made some good predictions in 2019. Novak Djokovic still has a very real chance of finishing No. 1, I hit the bullseye with Roger Federer, almost bullseyed Dominic Thiem, and correctly said that Marin Cilic’s tenure at the O2 Arena would end. But I also erred wildly on a whole host of other players. As always, let’s take a look back as we look forward to London….
1. Novak Djokovic – “There’s no other reasonable pick for the top spot in 2019…. Djokovic should continue to separate himself from the pack in the early stages of this season.”
He did, in fact, continue to separate himself with a dominant Australian Open run. But the next hard-court major proved to be his undoing in the race to be No. 1 going into London.
2. Alexander Zverev – “I picked Zverev to miss the 2018 year-end championship and naturally he not only qualified for the event but also won the whole freaking thing. The same mistake will not happen twice.”
The same mistake did not happen twice; the opposite mistake happened. This time I overrated Zverev…but at least I correctly predicted that he would make a return trip to London.
3. Roger Federer – “Most if not all players would have already taken a step back by now. Federer isn’t most players, and there is no real reason to think that 37 will be his wall.”
Nailed it at No. 3.
4. Dominic Thiem – “Thiem at least showed marginal improvement on hard courts (in 2018). It’s by no means time to dive headlong off the bandwagon.”
Thiem continued to improve on hard courts, thus comfortably qualifying for another London appearance. I was only one place off; not bad!
5. Rafael Nadal – “This is not necessarily the beginning of the end for Nadal, but a small step back may be endured. He isn’t beginning 2019 in top shape.”
It DEFINITELY wasn’t the beginning of the end. A mostly clean bill of health the whole season cause me to swing and miss on this one.
6. Kevin Anderson – “Anderson is basically the second coming of Marin Cilic but without a Grand Slam title. Like Cilic, he should be a staple of the top 10—and a staple of London—for years and years.”
Ouch. Literally. Anderson was hurt basically the entire year and is close to dropping out of the top 100. He won’t be in London and may never be again.
7. Borna Coric – “All signs point to this being the breakout season for Coric. He is 22 years old and was an alternate for London in 2018.”
A truly disastrous pick–albeit one that probably a lot of others made, too. Coric was surpassed by contemporaries like Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Injuries didn’t help.
8. Grigor Dimitrov – “Dimitrov is talented enough to win slams. Although that probably won’t happen in 2019, the least he can do is make it back to the Nitto ATP Finals—a tournament he actually won in 2017.”
An even worse pick than Coric–and NOT a lot of others made it. The only good news is that Dimitrov at least salvaged his season at the U.S. Open and Paris Masters (semifinals at both).
Alternates
9. Karen Khachanov – “Khachanov and Coric were the two London alternates this past season; both could be part of the real thing in 2019.”
Khachanov was worse than expected at No. 17, but at least I didn’t have him in the ATP Finals field. Plenty of people probably did.
10. Marin Cilic – “Cilic is into his 30s (right on the number) and he has slipped just a bit to seventh in the rankings.”
Cilic was also worse than expected, but I was right on the money that his decline would begin.
Actual final standings going into London
1. Rafael Nadal
2. Novak Djokovic
3. Roger Federer
4. Daniil Medvedev
5. Dominic Thiem
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas
7. Alexander Zverev
8. Matteo Berrettini
9. Roberto Bautista Agut
10. Gael Monfils
Did not mention
4. Daniil Medvedev – It was obvious Medvedev was on the rise going into 2019. But what he did in the second half was the stuff of legend. Nobody could have seen it coming.
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas – In this case more people saw London qualification coming. Tsitsipas put himself in position with an Aussie Open semifinal and remained there the entire way.
8. Matteo Berrettini – Who?!?! Berrettini was basically unknown outside of hardcore tennis circles heading into 2019. This is one of the most surprising year-end championship qualifications ever.
9. Roberto Bautista Agut – Not a surprise that RBA was in the mix. When the top two guys hog so many points, it’s not hard to be ranked in the top 10 if you are so solid basically every single week.
10. Gael Monfils – You can’t expect Monfils to stay healthy enough for a full season to be in the conversation. And injuries did continue to be a problem. He would have qualified otherwise.
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LOL
Ricky, Federer at #3 is the only one you got right.
I didn’t say it wasn’t!
Never underestimate Rafael Nadal.
You should put money on the opposite of your forecast for Nadal. You’ll get rich quick. 😉
Those were some tough to predict picks….7 Berretini & Medevedev might keep their mo in London!
Rafa injuries this “healthy” year
1) had to pull out of Abu Dhabi and Brisbane – I don’t even remember why, leaving him unable to prepare the way he wanted for AO.
2) was unable to train for Acapulco due to hand inflammation
3) pulled out of IW semi due to knee
4) was unable to train properly for the clay court season – was sick and tired of being injured and had a bad attitude!! (according to Rafa)
5) Laver Cup – hand inflammation forced him to play only half of his scheduled matches
6) Bercy – pulled out of the semis due to abdominal strain
And this is what a “healthy” year for Nadal looks like! Imagine what he could do with an actual injury free year. (sigh)
not bad by his standards!
(you can pretty much take out 1, 2, 4, and 5)