London semifinals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Goffin

The year-end championship was Roger Federer’s personal playground from 2003 to 2011, when he captured the title six times. Now the stomping grounds once again appear to be his as the 2017 event heads into semifinal Saturday.

Federer is 16-0 lifetime against the other three remaining players at the Word Tour Finals, including 6-0 at the expense of upcoming opponent David Goffin. The Belgian has tried and failed against his idol four times on hard courts–and often in less than competitive fashion–since they first squared off in a memorable contest at the 2012 French Open. Goffin stole the first set of that showdown, but he is 1-14 in his last 15 sets against Federer. They most recently faced each other a few weeks ago in Basel, where the Swiss cruised 6-1, 6-2 on his eventual way to the title.

Nobody has been able to beat Federer this fall, a stretch that has seen him recover from a back issue that plagued his U.S. Open–in which he suffered a quarterfinal loss to Juan Martin Del Potro. The world No. 2 is 13-0 in his last three tournaments with titles in Shanghai and Basel to go along with victories this week over Jack Sock, Alexander Zverev, and Marin Cilic. All three round-robin foes were competitive, but Federer still improved to 55-12 for his illustrious World Tour Finals career and his hopes for a seventh title are very much alive.

Even though Goffin has not been 100 percent physically since a freak ankle injury at Roland Garros, he has managed to produce an impressive last three months. The world No. 8 reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open and owns a 19-6 record this fall with back-to-back titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo. Goffin opened in London with a 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 upset of Rafael Nadal, got blown out by Grigor Dimitrov 6-0, 6-2, and then beat Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-1 in a virtual quarterfinal clash on Friday.

“I’ve never found a key to beat Roger,” captain obvious commented. “Honestly, I don’t know what to do tomorrow. But I’m going to try something…something different; something that I’ve never done in the past. I will try to do my best to play a better match than in Basel, for sure. In Basel, it was not easy. He played well. He didn’t miss. He was really aggressive, as always. He returned so well…. I hope that tomorrow he’s not going to play the same match.”

That hope is slim, because Federer is in fine form right now and this–as Goffin pointed out–is his best surface along with grass. The 19-time major champion has done no wrong indoors so far this fall, and there is no reason to think he will run into any trouble on Saturday.

Pick: Federer in 2

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51 Comments on London semifinals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Goffin

  1. It is so funny to me that Fed and Rafa have been at the top of the game for so long now that they regularly play against guys who are so much younger that they actually “idolized” Fedal when they were growing up! In most sports, when a generation comes in who grew up idolizing players who are still active, those older idols are usually past their prime, and are no longer a factor at the top of their respective games. Fedal have completely turned that notion on its head- and I think it’s awesome. 🙂

  2. unexciting and uncompetitive semi final match most likely, disappointing for tennis in a way. Yet would be a joy for Fed fans, Fed in two no more than 8 games.

  3. to be honest, I’m a bit worried. I know the history favours Fed against Goffin. But any series at some point ends. Plus Goffin said he will try something new, he has nothing to lose. I really want Fed to win this title. This is the only way he could become no.1 at the beginning of this winter.

    • Don’t worry Eugene!…If it’s meant to Rog,then he will win…if not,it is not meant for him…it’s for someone else…It’s as simple as that Eugene..

      • True Mira. That’s an easier approach. Even when things go wrong, you don’t let them control you. I mean tennis is great, but is not everything…

          • Hey amy!…Good afternoon to u!!…Are u okay today??Hope all is well with u or your house amy!…

            Goff to bagel Fed??Ohhohohohoho!!…More likely fed to bagel Goff amy!…So far,i’m not impressed much with Goff’s game…and to beat Fed,he have to up his level 150% more…very likely too that he will suffered mental block…But,as we know,anything could happen in tennis..right amy??But i think Roger will prevail in 2..

          • Managed not to electrocute myself this time mira!!!
            I am very unimpressed with goffin and was being sarcastic when I said I thought goffin fed would be fun as unless fed is really playing poorly it’s likely to be a blowout.
            Goffin is so lacking in aggression.. Compare him to how Simon who is even smaller used to attack the ball and construct points running around like a terrier and yapping at the other player’s heels!!
            Who do you think will win in dimi sock and who do you want to win?!

          • Hey back amy!!….hahahaha!…oh!Thank God for that amy!…U be careful next time okay?Accident can happen when we least expect it…
            About Goff…heh heh heh…i thought u’re serious when u said he’s going to bagel Fed this evening…It’s a strange tournament this year right amy?I mean,seen Thiem & Goff played like they’re not in the Top 10,with such a poor display..like they’re not belong to be there…But,yeah..it is what it is…
            About Dimi/Sock…I think Dimi will win,even tho i can’t warm to him but i think he’s better than Sock…he’s so good atm…U amy?

          • Sorry mira! I have the very British SOH where you say one thing and mean the opposite!
            R u watching? Fed has already had 4 break points!

          • Dimi is the fave but he hasn’t really been tested and is a player who often flatters to deceive.. Sock has the biggest weapon with his forehand but the way he endlessly slices the backhand makes me nervous!

          • Hehe..don’t be sorry amy!!..I’m very okay with your SOH!Don’t hesitate to be SOH again next time okay?
            Btw…I want to see the match so bad amy!But my stupid TV made a LIVE on MCI vs Leicester…If i want to see it..i have to wait at 2 am for delayed telecast!Urgh!![kicking my cow’s a@# now!!]…

          • Oh!That’s alright amy!…Thank u for your sympathy tho…yeah,from the way Rogernatics act like crazy on another thread,i guess our prediction might be right amy!…
            Bout rc…she don’t respond to me on FB..so,i guess whether she’s got trouble with her computer or she wants to be alone atm…

    • Why are you worried? Fed already has six WTFs, not winning this doesn’t make any difference to him. I’ll rather Dimi or Goffin gets it, when Rafa couldn’t. They don’t have any whilst Fed has six.

      • Ummmm because Fed is his favorite player? Just because Fed has accomplished so much doesn’t mean you root for others to take him down when he’s your favorite. That’s like if I wanted someone else to win this event at the start of the tourney because Roger has already won it six times. I wanted seven!! 😂

  4. Goffin needs to bring variations on his game if he wants to put Federer under pressure. The problem is that it isn’t the way he knows how to play. He hits clean, not really any variations in spins, backhand almost never sliced. However,he angles very well though. That could help him but keeping the ball constantly so close from the lines it’s very difficult.
    It’s imperative Goffin’s plays quite aggressive. And of course he will need a good 1st serve percentage, because Fed can easily attack his 2nd serves . If Goffin doesn’t bring anything new, the outcome will be the same as always.

    • Very well said Gaviria!

      If Goffin doesn’t being variations/changes to trouble the FED GOAT, Goffin will be afflicted by a new curse called the “GOAT CURSE”!lol Thus, he will be win-less against the FED GOAT for generations to come, come Goffin I Jr., Goffin II Jr., Goffin III Jr. etc.Ha,ha,ha…

      Fed -1.5 sets

  5. To see TMF playing like this at his age is pretty mind-blowing. But this WTF takes me back to the pre ’05 era when he routinely beat most of the field and there were no surprise upsets. He was favourite for this WTF from outset.

    • You look at the draw and you know he’s the favorite. As long as there’s no Djoko, Fed is the favorite. It’s no surprise that Fed last won this event in 2011 and has never won it since. It’s all because of Djoko, who beats him in 2012, 2015 final (Fed skip the 2014 final with a bad back).

  6. Is this Goffin for real??

    Can’t imagine he beating Fed here, and that will mean he beating both Rafa and Fed at a tournament, wow! Too early to say that though.

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