London likely, but future isn't now for Federer

Roger Federer returns to court next week in Basel, without a coach for the first time since the summer of 2010 and with a ranking as low as No. 7 for the first time since the fall of 2002.

Based on those facts and figures, questions obviously abound. Is Federer done? Should he hire a new coach? Is his nightmare 2013 going to continue at one of his home tournaments and in Paris? Will he even qualify for the World Tour Finals?

While the long-term outlook is cloudy with a slight chance of sunshine, the immediate future is unquestionably bleak. The 32-year-old has not advanced past the quarterfinals in any of his last four tournaments and he has not reached the final in any of his last six. His conquerors during this stretch include Sergiy Stakhovsky, Federico Delbonis, and Daniel Brands. When a setback against Tommy Robredo at a Grand Slam on a fast hard court is not even counted among the worst losses, you know things are dire.

Assuming Federer advances a few rounds in Basel (and in Paris), the competition will only get tougher–just as it did in Cincinnati, where the Swiss had to face Rafael Nadal as early as the quarterfinals. On hand next week for the 500-pointer are Nadal, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic. Federer would likely have to beat three of those guys to win the title, and maybe one just to reach the semis. The same formidable group is also scheduled to be in Paris, where Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be added to an already taxing equation.

If there’s good news for Federer, it’s that he is eighth in the race to London–and effectively seventh since Andy Murray is out. He would have to be passed by two out of Tsonga, Gasquet, and Raonic to miss the cut. Although that’s a very real possibility, Federer is much closer to the man ahead of him (Wawrinka, five points) than he is to the man in his rearview mirror (Tsonga, 135 points). The 17-time Grand Slam champion won’t be favored–nor should he be–to reach a final in either Basel in Paris, but he he may not have to for a berth in London.

Federer’s prospects beyond 2013 are arguably more encouraging, relative to expectations. An in-depth discussion can be found here–Roundtable: The state of Roger Federer at Sports Illustrated.

To summarize: if Federer and his fans harbor realistic goals, he can still be successful. He is never going to regain the No. 1 ranking in the world, but is the idea of him winning another Grand Slam title that preposterous? Many already counted him out during his nine-slam drought that began after the 2010 Australian Open, but he defied the odds and took home another Wimbledon title in 2012. Sure, this current slump is far worse than the previous one, but it’s also far from a death-knell. The skill-set is still there; it just needs to be showcased more often. As his own coach (Federer has always excelled as such) and perhaps with a new racket, what’s to say with absolute certainty that something resembling his arsenal of old won’t be on display with greater frequency in 2014?

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Comments on this piece and/or the one at SI, plus poll voting, are encouraged!

110 Comments on London likely, but future isn't now for Federer

  1. I think Roger will make it to London, but I did not vote in the poll on how he’ll do in Basel or Paris because I don’t like the wording of the question, Had the question been – ‘Could Federer win ………’ I would have voted ‘Yes’ because nothing is impossible, but ‘Will he win either of them, no one knows.

    Roger could climb back up the rankings if he gets lucky with the draws. Who knows? As for winning another slam, you couldn’t write him off either, although he got lucky in 2009 and 2012 with Rafa out of the way, just like Andy did at the USO, Wimbledon and the Olympics, Who knows what would have happened had Rafa not been out with injury.

  2. To me, ‘could’ means is it beyond the realms of possibilities and ‘will’ means he is going to win them.

    I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibilities for Roger to win anything, he is Roger Federer, after all. I, however, can’t say that he WILL win anything.

  3. —Dimon: He [Federer] still has the talent (see this summer’s highly competitive Cincinnati quarterfinal against Rafael Nadal)—-

    Yeah, Fed has to be put on a pedestal – no matter what! Even his loss to Rafa is a competitive achievement! 🙂 Rafa was supposed to withdraw from Cincinnati, no?

    “”SI.com. Roundtable: ATP Tour hot topics. July 11, 2013
    Nguyen: How many tournaments do you think Nadal will play the rest of the season?
    Dimon: …Nadal will lose in the Montreal semifinals and withdraw from Cincinnati. Take it to the nearest bank.””
    http://tennis.si.com/2013/07/11/atp-roundtable-roger-federer-andy-murray-novak-djokovic-rafael-nadal/

  4. I voted for Fed making it to London. I voted that he wouldn’t win either Basel or Paris. Unless just magically being on an indoor hard court can rejuvenate his game, I just think the competition is tough. There are other guys who have the game to do well on indoor hard court.

    As Ricky said, Basel is loaded. This is a strong field and Fed will have his work cut out for him. We will have to see whose part of the draw he lands in.

    The comment in the last paragraph is – if Fed and his fans harbor realistic goals. That is the key, because I have read comments from his fans online that indicate some serious denial. I also wonder if Fed himself is not being unrealistic at this point in time.

    It’s going to get harder and harder to compete with these young guys who have stepping up. Jerzy is back and his game is ideally suited to indoor hard court. Raonic has been playing very well with some great results recently. Then there is Delpo who has been on fire in Japan and Shanghai.

    Then there are guys like Wawrinka and Gasquet who have been playing well more consistently. Add in the likes of Tsonga and Berdy and it’s going to be a tough task for Fed.

    I try never to say never, but at this point I think something extraordinary would have to happen for him to win another slam. I think he did well to get another one last year along with the #1 ranking.

  5. If after Roger’s loss at Wimby someone had said: “Federer winning another slam is as likely as…. well, let’s say, Marion Bartoli winning Wimbledon”, all the pundits would’ve chuckled knowingly, deeming it ney impossible. Then the unthinkable happened, and Maid Marion held the trophy without having played a top tenner. That, IMO, is the scenario for another major Fed win. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely. He had his Sampras moment at Wimby 2012. But he and his fans failed to reckognize it.
    I’m not saying, btw, that he should retire. That’s for himself to decide, and I don’t believe in tainted legacies.

  6. Sampras was ranked outside the top 10 when he won his last grand slam. Fed is still a top 10 player
    You can never say Fed will not win a GS again. Maybe the Sampras moment lies ahead, you never know whats in store in the future

    • But Sampras was younger than Fed is now, and the competition is pretty stiff at the moment. Also, Sampras had a completely different personality. He was one of the most gifted fighters, I’ve ever seen. Some called him boring, but he has given us some of the most memorable matches ever, when his back was to the wall.
      I think, another Sampras moment for Fed is highly unlikely. But, if Fed still enjoys the game, there’s nothing wrong with not giving up hope.

      • Ha, ha, what’s fact, Ricky? That Fed is still a top ten player, that Sampras was one of the best fighters ever, that another major Fed moment is highy unlikely, that one should never give up hope, or all of the above?
        I guess, the only fact is, that Roger is still a top ten player.

  7. Breaking news!
    Rafa in Facebook, 12 minutes ago:
    “Hi all, sorry to announce that I won’t travel to Basel in Switzerland but after very exhausting weeks I have to regroup my fitness and my body. I will do my best to come back to the Swiss Indoors next year.”

  8. Wow! Considering, that Rafa HAD to make the semis, to be even able to add at least 30 measly points to his overall tally, and looking at the competition, it’s probably a smart move.
    But the race is on, and I hope, for Rafa it’s really only exhaustion and calculation, and not anything more serious.

    • Mmm, I think he’ll be forced to take a 0 pointer on Basel which means that his 150 points from Vina del Mar will not be counted after Basel is over. This would mean Rafa’s magic number to clinch YE No. 1 would now be 815 points.

      • hawkeye63@October 18, 2013 at 1:46 pm

        Rafa should travel to Basel – to participate in “promotional activities” – to avoid a ranking penalty.

        —The 2013 ATP rulebook, page 184
        C. ATP World Tour 500 – Ranking Penalty. A player’s (Commitment and Non-Commitment players) withdrawal from an ATP World Tour 500 event whether on time or after the 12 noon deadline, shall result in a zero (0) point ranking penalty. /…/

        page 146
        D. Withdrawal Penalties
        1) ATP World Tour 500. /…/Players shall not have the ranking penalty assessed if they complete the requirements for “promotional activities”/…/

        page 150
        2) ATP World Tour 500
        c) Promotional Activities.
        A player who was not on-site when the withdrawal/late withdrawal occurred but travels to the tournament within the first three (3) days of the main draw, unless otherwise determined by the ATP, and participates in a reasonable amount of promotional activities over a two (2) day period, as determined by the ATP, shall not have the applicable fine and ranking penalties assessed. Players who travel to the event to complete their promotional activity requirement shall receive full hospitality from the day of arrival through the night following the completion of their promotional obligation. —

  9. Ricky, you are one of the best at using few words, but one letter would have prevented several more emails: facts, instead of fact

    #justSomeFridayHumour

  10. it is true that Roger only sometimes fights as hard as he can when his back is against the wall. It is not his strength. A French sports psychologist wrote an article about this some five or more years ago. littlefoot’s point re Sampras is very well taken.

    Chances of Roger winning one more slam: very very low. Chances of Roger regaining the number one ranking even for one week: not zero, of course, but _very_ close to. About as close as Rafa, Novak and Andy being out on injuries for an extended period of time, each within the same 12 months window. And some of the other currently best players playing below their abilities often enough.

    • Don’t think he could ever get to No. 1 without winning another major. He’d need to go consistently deep in more tournaments to pull off the Woz Syndrome.

      He has a greater probability to win one more major IMO but we are comparing slim to none.

  11. Why will Rafa get 0 point penalty? His 150 will get added right on 28 Oct.

    He anyways has 6 completed outside Masters and Majors

    MC, Acapulco, Beijing, Barcelona, Sau Paulo, Vina DEl Mar and 1 of the ATP 500 is post USO

  12. rene stauffer ‏@staffsky 1h Would have been the bigger suprise to see Nadal in Basel than his withdrawel. Probably saves energies coz feels he can win his first WTF

  13. I hope its just exhaustion and he going th whole hog at Bercy/WTF and maybe win his first WTF. I hope its not an injury. Rem 2008 he did not play at all in fall and in 2010 too he did not play anything – Shanghai, Basel, Bercy and turned up straight for WTF.

    • Too funny! Here we were frazzling about Novak possibly accepting wild cards into Basel/Valencia, none ever thinking Rafa would bail out of Basel!

      I think this move speaks of confidence on Rafa’s part. Uncle Toni did say his Fall goals were to regain #1 and win WTF………………..

      • It just goes to show a lot of time and energy calculating and recalculating the point permutations was a bit of a waste of time.

  14. When an athlete ages, it’s not a matter of whether or not said athlete can retain their old form because the answer to that will always be “no.” It becomes more a question of how much of their old form can they retain and then the most important issue, can that athlete develop new and compensating skills to counteract the inevitable erosion of their pre-existing skill-set? Brad Gilbert and even Roger worshipper Chris Evert have made comments to the effect that Roger needs to “learn how to grind.” As anathema as that may be to fans who love his aesthetically gifted game, it may be a solution. I’m loathe to offer helpful hints to any professional, but my opinion is that with the decline of his shot-making skills (‘decline’ being a relative term…after all, this is a stratospheric level), he must learn, like Rafa, Novak, and Andy, to get that ball over the net one more time and force his opponent to make another shot thereby affording himself one more opportunity to hit a winner. Andre Agassi’s resurgence offers that exact solution. Andre, prior to his initial decline, was a baseliner shot-maker. In his re-emergence, he committed himself to fitness and better defense, grinding his opponents down: hence his nickname, “The Punisher.” If that sort of transformation is a solution for Roger, he’s got to be mentally committed to it, which is where he may fall short. Nothing in his history would suggest that he would be willing to fully commit to such a change. But, with age brings wisdom and hindsight, so perhaps he’ll be ready to take on, eyes wide open and fully self aware, the challenges he faces.

  15. RT @staffsky: “Djokovic rejects Wildcard for Swiss Indoors. Defending champion Delpo going to be top seed, ahead of Berdych, RF and Wawrinka.”

  16. I got here to see the news that Rafa has withdraw from Basel. Now all those endless calculations seem to be a waste of time.

    We never thought about Rafa possibly withdrawing. I hope that he just wants to conserve energy for the big push at Paris and WTF.

  17. Well I enjoy the journey so for me not a waste of time. Besides, with a 0-pointer from Basel that must be “countable” as a penalty for pulling out (assuming he doesn’t make physical appearances), we now know his magic number is 820 meaning any combination of points won by Rafa or not earned by Nole secures the YE No. 1.

    More importantly, hey Ricky, how you fix the Recent Comments widget? Is working now.

    • hawkeye,

      This is not a journey, it’s a winding road that leads to nowhere. I just want to reach a point of consensus without having to hear over and over again about 0-pointers, the 150 points from Vina Del Mar, do they count or do they not count and penalties.

  18. Alright, here my pet theory about Rafa’s withdrawal: His Monday opening night scheduling caused it. So, what’s going to happen on Monday night, which might cause players to run?
    “Seventeen Years, long blond Hair”; “Greek Wine”; “I’m 66 years old, and my life has just begun”; “Gimme the cream topping”; “I was never in New York, and never in Hawai”. Yes, that’s Switzerlands secret weapon, the great Udo Jürgens! 🙂 🙂 🙂
    Insiders will wear earplugs, the rest has lost already!
    #songofthesiren

    • Had to Google to find out who Udo Jurgens is!

      Still not certain I get the reference – is he performing live at Basel?

      Stephan Eicher is more my cup of tea 😉

      • Yes, he’s performing live in Basel on opening night. He’s VERY well known in Germany and Switzerland. The titles, I roughly translated above, would make a good medleyof his greatest hits. I’ve been at a party the other night, where they made the guitarrist of Roger Chapman (he was a guest of honor) play those songs. Oh, the indignity!

      • Ed: Udo Jurgens will be performing, along with the Pepe Lienhard orchestra, as part of the opening ceremonies at Basel. Rafa’s match was to have followed those ceremonies.

  19. It is 665 points guys. There is no 0 pointer for Basel. His 150 Vina Del Mar points add on 28 October

    Why are we hell bent on giving him 0 pointers here when he shouldn’t be?

  20. Because a player can only use his top 6 results from Monte Carlo, 500-level, 250-level, Davis Cup. By withdrawing from Basel by ATP rules one of those six will be his 0-pointer from Basel (unless he travels to Basel for promotional purposes which is unlikely) and the next lowest result, Vina del Mar, will not be counted.

    • So Rafa will be forced to use his 0-pointer from Basel as one of his “best 6” over Vina del Mar as a penalty for withdrawing.

      Applicable excerpts from ATP Rankings FAQ:

      Commitment players (top 30 in 2012 year-end ranking) can count their best six (6) results from ATP World Tour 500, ATP World Tour 250 and other events (Challengers, Futures, Davis Cup, Olympics) toward their ranking. To count their best six (6), players must have fulfilled their commitment to 500 events – 4 total per year (at least 1 after the US Open).

      A. Top 30 players (based on 2012 year-end Emirates ATP Rankings) must play a minimum of four 500 level tournaments during the calendar year, including at least one event following the US Open (Monte Carlo Masters 1000 event will count towards the minimum of four and all penalties apply):
      — A 0-pointer for each event less than four played.
      — A 0-pointer for withdrawing from any 500 tournament after the acceptance list is out.

      • So you saying it is 0 penalty for withdrawing from any 500 tournament after the acceptance list is out.

        Because best 4 he has already fulfilled MonteCarlo, caplco, Barcelona, Beijing(after US)

    • The Monday right after Basel on October 28, Rafa will show Basel with a 0 under ATP World Tour 500 and Vina del Mar will drop back to Non-countable.

      Where is this statement written in the link you posted hawkeye?

  21. Talk about the beginning of The Weak Era…

    Wow, Tommy Haas was actually No. 2 for six weeks in the fall of 2002!!!

    His slam performance that year was SF, 4R, Absent for wimby and 4R!!! His best Masters performances in the previous 12 months were one win, a final and two semis.

    At that time Lleyton Hewitt was No. 1.

    His slam performance that year was 1R, 4R,W, SF. Likewise, his best Masters performances in the previous 12 months were one win, a final and two semis!

    Speaks volumes. Oh My, how times have changed.

  22. Why will it not be counted? What makes you say so? If it was anyway going to be added on 28 October when zero penalty expires, what difference does it make if he plays Basel or not?

    We were anyway saying he needs to add on top of 150 gained in Vina Del Mar all along, why suddenly that is not applicable and Vina Del Mar does not get counted.
    Why cant Vina DEl Mar be 1 of the 6, what excludes it?

  23. Coria was Number 3 in May 2004.

    His slam performance over the previous 12 months was SF, 1R,QF, 1R.

    His best Masters performances in the previous 12 months were two finals, a 4R and a 3R. He was absent for Rome, Cincy, Madrid and Paris LOL!!!

    Contrast that with Ferru, today’s number 3 who has a final, SF and two QF in this year’s majors plus a Win, Final and two QF in Masters events or even No. 4 Andy Murray with a Wimby title and an AO final, a Miami win and three Masters QF.

    #WeakEra2003-2007RIP

  24. Sanju, I don’t want to give him a zero pointer but the ATP does.

    Please see my post just above which I posted before this one. Why you gonna believe some poster on rogerfedererfans.com over me?

    Man, that just ain’t right. You cut me deep Sanju.

    We will see, no? We need to make a bet somehow. Maybe you just post Hawkeye is BRILLIANT if , I mean when Vina del Mar shows as uncountable.

    #NotReally
    #DoingTheJokings

    • Haha..maybe I chose to believe rogefederefans as 666 is better for Rafa to achieve thna 820 😉

      Anyways worst case 820..best case 670..Go Rafa Go 🙂

      • Sanju says:
        October 18, 2013 at 7:33 pm
        It is not actually, even plain logic infers Vina Del Mar will count.I wonder why we hell bent on giving him a 0 pointer ..Poor Rafa (:-

        Since when did plain logic have anything to do with the ATP? haha.

        Bummed Milos lost to Benito Pearings today.

        #FF

  25. Rafa has learned from his past experiences…good decision !

    I am relieved he is not going to basel. To hell with those ranking points he could have gathered there. I am fully with rafa … good move !

    • vamosrafa,

      I am in complete agreement with you. Rafa obviously needs to conserve his energy for the final push. I am glad that he is going what is best for him.

      Now, do we have any consensus on the exact number of points Rafa needs to win to be year end #1? Or is it futile to even ask!

    • Totally agree @vamosrafa. Henceforth, Rafa should just give the ATP and their rules the middle finger and do as he pleases. Who cares about a few points penalties anyway? Even if Djokovic ends up as YE#1 (which he won’t), everyone knows, including himself, who the best player in 2013 is.

  26. Rafa has already fulfilled his 500 commitments for 2013 so he should not get a 0 pointer for not playing Basel, as I understand it.

    • Thats right nadline..thats what I am trying to say all along above..so he wont get point penalties for not playing but hawkeye posted a line – A 0-pointer for withdrawing from any 500 tournament after the acceptance list is out.

      So if he gets a 0 pointer, it maybe only due to this.

      NNY..its 666 at best, 820 at worst :-)..Take your pick 🙂

    • That crossed my mind, too. Rafa withdrew the day after Novak declined that wc from Valencia. The double bluff would have been, of course, if Novak would then have taken that wc after all.
      Scouting the net, I found, that re: the point situation, profound confusion still reigns. I would credit this site with sporting some of the more lucid discussions 🙂

  27. RITB @ 11:05am on Stockholm SF thread
    – Those who are still clinging onto the Fed is GOAT chestnut are looking sillier and sillier by the day: –
    http://www.tennisnow.com/News/Statisfaction-ATP-s-Best,-Worst-Records-against-To.aspx

    I wonder what Roger’s take is on this issue now? In the past he has always slightly smugly embraced the notion that he is the rightful heir to this accolade. Since the criteria for Goatdom have never been agreed, the bid to anoint him as such is predicated solely on weeks ranked No.1 and slam total. The first is a record that may well endure: the latter far less likely.

    In fairness to Fedfans the goat argument has been driven largely by pundits, commentators and tournament promoters – egged on by the ATP.

    It’s time it was debunked once and for all. Rafans have been doing just that for years. When will the pundits followed suit?

  28. Ricky Dimon@October 19, 2013 at 12:09 pm
    —why is his slam record far less likely to endure?—

    Because Rafa has the same number of GS titles that Fed did at Rafa’s current age.
    Comparing Rafa and Roger Federer at the age of 27 years, 4 months, 16 days:
    ¤ Rafa on Oct. 19th, 2013:
    – singles titles, total 60,
    – Masters titles 26,
    – GS titles 13;

    ¤ Roger Federer on Dec 24th, 2008:
    – singles titles, total 57,
    – Masters titles 14,
    – GS titles 13.
    ——————————-
    Fed won his:
    – 58th singles title at the age of 27y, 9m, 9d
    – 14th GS title at the age of 27y, 9m, 30d

  29. The ‘GOAT’ has a 14% success rate against the top 10 in 2013 against 86% for the King of Tennis. After they’ve both hung up their racquets, Rafa’s achievements will make those of Fed’s pale into insignificance.

  30. The comparison against Borg is a little less informative in that list, as Borg retired pretty young, Yes, he had been beaten once badly but conventional wisdom says he would have probably turned tables around if he had had the nerve to continue his career. Even so, had he continued for another say 4 years his overall percentage would probably have dropped.

  31. Federer says Rafa is hhttp://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/10/19/roger-federer-interview-cnn-rafael-nadal-wimbledon-final/is toughest opponent of all time:

  32. nadline: That’s one of those ‘I’m a legend in my own lifetime’ scripts from Federer that gets up my nose. I’m surprised at you flagging it up!

  33. Federer’s current vicissitudes are generating more and more comment these days. Opinion is divided as to which count as his worst losses over the years. I’d love to know which he ranks as his 10 worst. One particularly humiliating loss came at the hands of Richard Gasquet (ranked 101 at the time) at Monte Carlo 2005. He was the second teenager to beat the World No.1 in the space of a year!

    If he makes it to the SF this week Roger might be hoping that it’s not Reeshar on the other side of the net.

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