Roger Federer returns to court next week in Basel, without a coach for the first time since the summer of 2010 and with a ranking as low as No. 7 for the first time since the fall of 2002.
Based on those facts and figures, questions obviously abound. Is Federer done? Should he hire a new coach? Is his nightmare 2013 going to continue at one of his home tournaments and in Paris? Will he even qualify for the World Tour Finals?
While the long-term outlook is cloudy with a slight chance of sunshine, the immediate future is unquestionably bleak. The 32-year-old has not advanced past the quarterfinals in any of his last four tournaments and he has not reached the final in any of his last six. His conquerors during this stretch include Sergiy Stakhovsky, Federico Delbonis, and Daniel Brands. When a setback against Tommy Robredo at a Grand Slam on a fast hard court is not even counted among the worst losses, you know things are dire.
Assuming Federer advances a few rounds in Basel (and in Paris), the competition will only get tougher–just as it did in Cincinnati, where the Swiss had to face Rafael Nadal as early as the quarterfinals. On hand next week for the 500-pointer are Nadal, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Milos Raonic. Federer would likely have to beat three of those guys to win the title, and maybe one just to reach the semis. The same formidable group is also scheduled to be in Paris, where Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be added to an already taxing equation.
If there’s good news for Federer, it’s that he is eighth in the race to London–and effectively seventh since Andy Murray is out. He would have to be passed by two out of Tsonga, Gasquet, and Raonic to miss the cut. Although that’s a very real possibility, Federer is much closer to the man ahead of him (Wawrinka, five points) than he is to the man in his rearview mirror (Tsonga, 135 points). The 17-time Grand Slam champion won’t be favored–nor should he be–to reach a final in either Basel in Paris, but he he may not have to for a berth in London.
Federer’s prospects beyond 2013 are arguably more encouraging, relative to expectations. An in-depth discussion can be found here–Roundtable: The state of Roger Federer at Sports Illustrated.
To summarize: if Federer and his fans harbor realistic goals, he can still be successful. He is never going to regain the No. 1 ranking in the world, but is the idea of him winning another Grand Slam title that preposterous? Many already counted him out during his nine-slam drought that began after the 2010 Australian Open, but he defied the odds and took home another Wimbledon title in 2012. Sure, this current slump is far worse than the previous one, but it’s also far from a death-knell. The skill-set is still there; it just needs to be showcased more often. As his own coach (Federer has always excelled as such) and perhaps with a new racket, what’s to say with absolute certainty that something resembling his arsenal of old won’t be on display with greater frequency in 2014?
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Comments on this piece and/or the one at SI, plus poll voting, are encouraged!
RITB @ 11:05am on Stockholm SF thread
– Those who are still clinging onto the Fed is GOAT chestnut are looking sillier and sillier by the day: –
http://www.tennisnow.com/News/Statisfaction-ATP-s-Best,-Worst-Records-against-To.aspx
I wonder what Roger’s take is on this issue now? In the past he has always slightly smugly embraced the notion that he is the rightful heir to this accolade. Since the criteria for Goatdom have never been agreed, the bid to anoint him as such is predicated solely on weeks ranked No.1 and slam total. The first is a record that may well endure: the latter far less likely.
In fairness to Fedfans the goat argument has been driven largely by pundits, commentators and tournament promoters – egged on by the ATP.
It’s time it was debunked once and for all. Rafans have been doing just that for years. When will the pundits followed suit?
“the latter far less likely”
———-
why is his slam record far less likely to endure?
^^^^^^ OK i’ll change that to:
his slam total could quite possibly be exceeded within a few years.
…….implicit in the above statement: Rafa on a roll for two or more years: not an impossible scenario.
emphasis on COULD
Ricky Dimon@October 19, 2013 at 12:09 pm
—why is his slam record far less likely to endure?—
Because Rafa has the same number of GS titles that Fed did at Rafa’s current age.
Comparing Rafa and Roger Federer at the age of 27 years, 4 months, 16 days:
¤ Rafa on Oct. 19th, 2013:
– singles titles, total 60,
– Masters titles 26,
– GS titles 13;
¤ Roger Federer on Dec 24th, 2008:
– singles titles, total 57,
– Masters titles 14,
– GS titles 13.
——————————-
Fed won his:
– 58th singles title at the age of 27y, 9m, 9d
– 14th GS title at the age of 27y, 9m, 30d
good stuff!
#NumberCrunching
The ‘GOAT’ has a 14% success rate against the top 10 in 2013 against 86% for the King of Tennis. After they’ve both hung up their racquets, Rafa’s achievements will make those of Fed’s pale into insignificance.
The comparison against Borg is a little less informative in that list, as Borg retired pretty young, Yes, he had been beaten once badly but conventional wisdom says he would have probably turned tables around if he had had the nerve to continue his career. Even so, had he continued for another say 4 years his overall percentage would probably have dropped.
Federer says Rafa is hhttp://rafaelnadalfans.com/2013/10/19/roger-federer-interview-cnn-rafael-nadal-wimbledon-final/is toughest opponent of all time:
nadline: That’s one of those ‘I’m a legend in my own lifetime’ scripts from Federer that gets up my nose. I’m surprised at you flagging it up!
Federer’s current vicissitudes are generating more and more comment these days. Opinion is divided as to which count as his worst losses over the years. I’d love to know which he ranks as his 10 worst. One particularly humiliating loss came at the hands of Richard Gasquet (ranked 101 at the time) at Monte Carlo 2005. He was the second teenager to beat the World No.1 in the space of a year!
If he makes it to the SF this week Roger might be hoping that it’s not Reeshar on the other side of the net.
Federer discusses the downward spiral:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/oj3wz9r