Indian Wells SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Alcaraz

Rafael Nadal Australian Open
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It’s an all-Spanish Indian Wells battle between the old guard and the young gun as 35-year-old Rafael Nadal takes on teenager Carlos Alcaraz. Saturday’s winner will meet either Andrey Rublev or Taylor Fritz in the final.

All eyes are going to be on Rafael Nadal as he goes toe-to-toe with 18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz. The two Spaniards are two of the most in-form players on tour so far in 2022. Alcaraz lost in the third round at the Australian Open to Matteo Berrettini, but that’s his only loss on the season. He was 8-1 coming into the BNP Paribas Open.

Nadal has been even more impressive. The veteran hasn’t lost a match this year. He started his season with a win in the Australian Open warm-up event in Melbourne and followed up that victory with the capture of his record-breaking 21st major title at the Aussie Open. Nadal also snagged a title a few weeks ago in Acapulco. It is the best start the world No. 4 has ever had–and at 35 years old.

Saturday’s semifinal will be notable, regardless of outcome. Either Nadal will continue to add wins to his miraculous season, staving off a charge by a man nearly half his age, or it will finally signal a changing of guard–when youth finally overtakes one of the greatest players of all time. Alcaraz is certainly playing better tennis than when he met his countryman in Madrid last spring, when Nadal gave Alcaraz a free clay-court lesson and sent him packing 6-1, 6-2.

It’s doubtful any such thing is going to happen this time. Alcaraz has absolutely dismantled his opponents en route to the semis. The teen hasn’t dropped a set, with a particularly notable 6-2, 6-0 shellacking of Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round. He is playing well enough to give Nadal all he can handle.

The thing is that Nadal has just…handled things this season. All the things. He beat Daniil Medvedev in the final in Melbourne and again in Acapulco, he was too good Reilly Opelka’s serve in the Indian Wells third round, and he made quite a show of ousting Nick Kyrgios in the quarterfinals on Friday. The veteran played particularly impressive tennis against Kyrgios and there is nothing to indicate that he is ready to stop now.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3

Ricky pick: Nadal in 2

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11 Comments on Indian Wells SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Alcaraz

  1. As soon as Alcaraz realises that Nadal isn’t the buddy that he thought he was, that’s when he will start to win.

    Up next is Fritz that has been waiting for this opportunity. The improvement has been there for a while now and arguably should’ve done better at the AO but here he is again with another opportunity to prove that he’s but just striking the ball better but is genuine force to be reckoned with.

    Fritz could be Nadal’s toughest test to date this year.

  2. Well played Rafa, showing off his amazing volleying skills in atrocious conditions.
    And what a star in the making is young Alcaraz, such athleticism! One of my favourites of the young players, for sure.

  3. Alcatraz gave a great account of himself but it was always going to be near impossible to beat in form Rafa esp with the ‘awe’ factor. I love his game.

  4. I have to admit that Alcaraz was much better than I expected. He is definitely one of the best if not the best of the new generation. Even if Rafa had won in 2 sets, I would still think Alcaraz gave a good account of himself.

    The windy conditions in the 2nd set upset the apple cart a little when both players had difficulty controlling the ball.

  5. I didn’t see any ”awe” factor. On the contrary, it looked to me like the two trained often enough so that Alcaraz felt quite comfortable facing Rafa. Unfortunately in the second set the conditions didn’t really allow playing tennis so it’s pretty hard to make anything out of it.
    Like expected, in the end Nadal had more options, but Carlos put up a good fight.

  6. There was no “awe” factor. Both guys had a tough time with the wind in the second set. So I am not going to rate their play. Anyone who has lived in Southern California like I have, knows how difficult the wind can be.

    I thought Alcaraz was going to try to hit Rafa off the court in the first set. But he has a solid game that is very impressive for an 18 year old. Rafa did well to counter his power in the first set. Fortunately, the wind eased up enough to allow them to play decent tennis in the third set. I thought Rafa got much more aggressive. He was very strong in the last few games.

    Rafa’s experience and ability to make adjustments was a big factor in his win. This kid seems to be the real deal. I am usually skeptical of these young kids, but he has a lot of potential.

    • I too am usually pretty sceptical nny.
      But I think Alcaraz is the real deal. I was saying to vr that he seems to have some of rafa’s humility unlike Zverev and Tsitsi.
      I think he will end up winning multiple grand slams. He is the real deal for me in a way I have never seen in Zverev, Tsitsi and co…

      • amy,

        Yes. I am not usually very impressed when I hear all the hype. I like to wait and see how the latest young great player does. But I do think this kid is the real thing. For one thing, he is well mannered. Something we don’t see a lot of these days with the self-entitled nextGen.

        I am so sick of hearing these commentators wax poetic about Kyrgios, even though he behaves like a Neanderthal on the court. Being talented should not allow someone to behave like a piece of trash.

        It would be refreshing to see a young man who is willing to train and work to be his best. Someone who loves the sport and can play great and behave on the court.

        Rafa has praised this young man. I hope he can realize his potential.

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