Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Raonic, Federer vs. Berdych

March 19, 2015 Ricky Match previews 0

Rafa 3Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are one round away from a blockbuster semifinal showdown in Indian Wells. Standing in their way on Friday are Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych, respectively.

(6) Milos Raonic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Aside from a 2014 Paris Masters upset of Roger Federer, Raonic has been mostly hopeless against the very best players in the world as he gets another shot at one of the “Big 4” during quarterfinal action at the BNP Paribas Open on Friday. The Canadian is a combined 1-18 lifetime against Nadal, Federer, and Novak Djokovic, including 0-5 with Nadal on the other side of the net. In total sets the Spaniard is 10-1 in the head-to-head series and 8-1 on hard courts. They finally had a competitive meeting last spring in Miami, where Nadal survived 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.

Fast forward almost exactly one year and Raonic has really established himself as a staple of the top eight. The 24-year-old reached the Wimbledon semifinals, the Paris title match, and he qualified for the World Tour Finals. So far in Indian Wells, Raonic has dominated Simone Bolelli, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Tommy Robredo. Despite constant complaints about the type of balls being used, Nadal has been solid this fortnight. The world No. 3 has not come close to dropping a set in wins over Igor Sijsling, Donald Young, and Gilles Simon. A hard court gives Raonic a slight chance, but the conditions are likely not fast enough for the underdog to completely turn the tide against one of his nemeses.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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(9) Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Roger Federer

By this matchup’s standards, Federer and Berdych have been in a drought in terms of going head-to-head against one another. They have not squared off in more than year, since the 2014 Dubai final–one of the longest such stretches of their careers. Federer has won 12 of their 18 meetings, including that Dubai title match via a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 decision. Berdych, though, has taken two of their last three encounters dating back to the 2012 U.S. Open. Federer is 7-5 lifetime against the Czech on either hard courts or carpet.

There is a lot to like about the 33-year-old Swiss’ current form and his past history in Indian Wells. He is 14-1 this season and 50-10 overall in the desert, with four titles. So far this fortnight Federer has easily dismissed Diego Schwartzman, Andreas Seppi, and Jack Sock. Berdych has advance with wins over Sergiy Stakhovsky, Steve Johnson, and Lukas Rosol. The world No. 9 has been solid but–aside from an Australian Open upset of Nadal–unspectacular in 2015 and his Indian Wells campaign has been no different. Berdych’s record at this event was a mere 15-10 prior to this year, and his chances of reaching just a second semifinal at Larry Ellison’s establishment are not encouraging.

Pick: Federer in 2

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55 Comments on Indian Wells QF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Raonic, Federer vs. Berdych

  1. “I was tired? I was not tired. I had more opportunities than him in the first, in the second, and in the third, too. That’s the real thing about what happened during the match. The real thing is I am happy the way I played. I am happy the way that I stayed in a level during the whole match. I am not happy that I lost. That’s it.”

    “In the end,” Nadal continued in this philosophical vein, “sport is win or lose, but today I lost against a great opponent who was fighting for every ball with a very positive attitude.”

    Nadal, despite his loss, was more positive about his own future.

    “I think every week I am better,” Rafa said. “Every week I am more competitive. Every week I feel stronger, quicker on the court again. My focus on the match is becoming better every match. Today I was able to compete against a top player without a feeling that he was better than me. So that’s a big improve.”

    http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2015/03/two-men-one-climb/54396/#.VQ17fylqrXU

    Reply

  2. Rafa is going to try to take positives out of this loss. He has to do that. Miami is coming up next, so Rafa has to look at it this way. I remain concerned, although I do believe that Rafa played his best in that first set. He isn’t able to sustain it and also doesn’t have the confidence to fight through the tough moments in a match. It’s true that he didn’t get tired, didn’t have any cramping. So his fitness is improving.

    My issue is how Rafa lost. We have discussed this many times here. It’s the fact that he was in control of the match, was dictating points in the first set and still seemed to be in control with break chances in the second set. Raonic started off slowly, but I noticed that he seemed to get into a good rhythm with his serve in the second set. He was working himself into the match. I remember saying to Rafa – close it out in two! I felt that Rafa needed to get it done in that second set, because Raonic was getting it together and playing much better. But unfortunately, Rafa didn’t get it done.

    It’s not the end of the world. But I would have liked to see Rafa get his place in the semis along with the other top three. For what it’s worth, I think this time Fed would have had a good shot at the win against Rafa.

    As far as the final, the assumption is that it’s going to be Novak and Fed. I do think Murray will give Novak a battle. But if it is Novak and Fed, I am not that sure that Fed will win. Novak will want to right the ship and not lose another final to Fed.

    For Rafa, it’s on to Miami.

    Reply

    • nativenewyorker7 says:
      March 21, 2015 at 3:29 pm,
      —For what it’s worth, I think this time Fed would have had a good shot at the win against Rafa.—

      And you wrote that someone else had low expectations!

      Reply

      • augusta,

        Regarding your comment to me @ 7:29 pm, I am just being realistic. If you don’t want to accept the reality of where Rafa is at right now, then that’s your problem. Fed is playing great tennis and has all the confidence in the world.

        However, I am not surprised that someone like you would feel the need to get a dig in because of that comment. I expected it. Nothing new.

        You are the one who has the low expectations, saying that it’s better that Rafa didn’t meet Fed or Novak to get a loss now. So who is kidding who here?

        Reply

  4. Roger Federer on his rivalry with Rafael Nadal: “In the beginning clearly I tried to fight it, to not accept that he was my rival, that I did have a rival, because I was playing so well in 2004 and then 2o05. But very quickly I did realise of course when he beat me the first time in Miami that this wasn’t just a fluke. This was probably a legend in the making. He has been around forever. He has created things that are just mind-blowing. Monaco record, French Open record, and many others. I think it has actually been very cool playing against him over all these years, and I’m sure it has made me a better player throughout. I hope I did a little of the same against him.”

    Reply

  5. I am not too perturbed by the loss. To me Rafa able to last a match of 3 hrs in peak sun and heat and not cramping/not getting tired is a huge plus. Once he wins 2-3 matches against Top 10, everything will fall in place. Rem Doha 2010 when he was in midst of that 9 month title drought where he had 2-3 match points against Davydenko and still lost..He did not have a Top 10 win there too I think for 9 months or def no title..but come Montecarlo and he righted the ship. I am not asying 2010 will get repeated..hes 5 years older now..so I dont expect that and competition is tougher now..all I am saying is it is not still over

    Reply

  6. Sanju,

    I initially was very upset. But with a good night’s sleep, perspective is restored. I do not think this loss had anything to do with being unlucky. Rafa makes his own luck. He had his chances and didn’t convert those break points. He had three match points in the tb. We’ve seen him pull out these kind of matches so many times. But Ricky did make the point that none of those match points were on Rafa’s serve. So Raonic was able to come up with the big serves in those moments.

    His fitness is much better now. He played some of his best tennis in that first set. I hope that Rafa can continue to take the good things out of his losses and keep on working to get back to his best.

    No way do I think it’s over! In fact, I was so infuriated by the comments from Jim Courier during Rafa’s match with Simon, to the effect that Rafa’s movement was “labored” and referencing all of those supposed “surgeries”, when the truth is that there was only the appendix surgery, that I emailed the tennis channel and wrote a strongly worded complaint about it. I also mentioned Mary Carillo and Jim Courier commenting during Rafa’s match against Young and bringing up every single lower ranked player who had an upset win against Rafa. It’s like they are writing his epitaph and I am having none of that. It’s just going to take more time.

    Reply

  8. I had to turn it off. Murray was positively dreadful. At one point ESPN put up serving stats midway through the second set. Murray’s first serves won percentage was 33%! For real! I cannot remember the last time I saw him serve so poorly. His whole game was a disaster.

    The outcome was a foregone conclusion from early on in the second set, so I just stopped watching. They have had some great matches in the past, but this one was completely forgettable.

    Reply

    • ^^^ over Nole of course. I guess there’s no final preview because Ricky is in mourning.

      Tip: Ricky, you can start picking Milos to go deep into tournaments again. That gluten free diet is working wonders for him. But he won’t beat Nole or Rafa in Miami.

      Reply

  10. Well the moment rafa lost, we were all very frustrated and disappointed! My perspective, like NNY’s, got restored.

    NNY very aptly put rafa’s performance in perspective. He should have wrapped it up in set 2 and had many chances to do it. Ricky is right that rafa did not have match point on his own serve but let us not forget that on two match points rafa had second serve returns and he had a more than 50% chance of winning those points based on the return percentages of that match so I was gutted. On the first match point, raonic hit a very tight second serve on the ad court and rafa ran around his backhand, had plenty of time but dumped the ball into the net. He lost another crucial second serve return on the deuce court as he attempted to step into the court only to see the return sail long.

    Overall, I think rafa made real progress! The movement is a lot better now! The forehand has started to get better and backhand is okay-ish. Rafa will get aggressive with the backhand as he gains more confidence. Most important of all is how confident and positive rafa is after the loss! He really is feeling positive and according to him he is in the right direction. Remember how postitive he sounded after losing the AO 2012 final when apparently that loss was to devastate his morale? We all know what followed !!

    Raonic definitely improved throughout the match. His serving became more stable and he punished rafa’s weak backhand slices with his inside out forehand effectively. Rafa’s backhand slices have not improved over the years and get him in trouble against big hitters :/

    Anyway, I am expecting at least a semi final in Miami and more confidence! He is going ot shut a lot of mouths by the time Monte carlo rolls around.

    Reply

    • I cannot understand why he hits those BH slices..They look pathetic and completely eatable by the opponents. His motion during those BH slices does not look good too.. Even Noles BH slice motion is plain ugly

      Reply

    • vamosrafa,

      Thanks for your analysis of the key moments in that second set tb. I wanted to block it out of my mind. However, you made some excellent points to the effect that Rafa did get a look at second serves from Raonic. Rafa blew his chances for sure. If you get a look at a second serve, then you need to do something with it.

      You also took the positives out of the tournament for Rafa. I agree with what you said about the improvements in Rafa’s game.

      A lot will depend on the draw in Miami. I am with you in hoping for a semifinal result as we come to the end of the hard court season and get ready for clay.

      I did take this loss hard. After a good night’s sleep and by the end of the following day, I was feeling better.

      Reply

  11. well, Rafa had to improve, his tennis was dreadful and he had nowhere to go but up…however, his confidence is still so low and I think he fears himself more than his opponents…he played good enough to beat Milos in two and yet failed to do so…I immediately had image of last year loss to Dolgo,,,it took me a while to recover from that one…I wish Uncle T is around…I think he is able to install some confidence in Rafa…

    I had expectations from IW because the court suits Rafa…Miami however has never been his tourney and I hardly see something to look forward to (read: wining the title!) …More than anything in the world I would like Rafa to prove me wrong and do well in Miami…

    One thing I strongly believe in is that Rafa will peak by the time he hits the dirt…on clay his confidence just flourishes and by that time he will have enough match play to become the unbeatable again…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

    • natashao,

      I sincerely hope that you are right in saying Rafa will peak by the time he hits the dirt. As we all know, the clay season is just around the corner. There is only one more hard court tournament in Miami and as you said, this has never been a court that is favorable to Rafa’s game.

      Monte Carlo isn’t far away!

      Reply

  12. I enjoyed watching the points Rafa played well… so many of them.

    This was always going to be a slow starting year for having played so little for so long before the AO. And Rafa is getting older. So I expect every year from now on to have stretches of high achievements and stretches of not so high / ups and downs. It seems he will once again hit his much better play by the beginning or somewhere along the claycourt season.

    It will be interesting to see how he does after the claycourt seasonis over. A strong rest of the year would be nice but we’ll have to see. I continue to just hope he remains mostly injury free for the year.

    Reply

  13. augusta

    March 21, 2015 at 12:13 am

    “Vamos Rafa – no matter what!!!

    I think, it was better to lose today than make Fedfans happy tomorrow.”

    This was your comment after Rafa’s loss to Raonic. So take responsibility for your low expectations! Don’t try to throw it off on me!

    Reply

  15. augusta,

    Copying and pasting all of my comments does not detract from the truth. You said that it was better for Rafa to lose to Raonic than to make Fedfans happy! You said that and need to own it!

    Regurgitating what has already been said by both of us, does not make an argument. Your comment clearly showed low expectations because if Fedfans were made happy, then that would mean that Rafa would have lost to him in the semis! Or are you denying that this was what you meant?

    It’s repetitive and boring to post a repeat of a conversation that in the end only reinforces what I said. Take responsibility for YOUR low expectations and get off my case!

    Reply

    • What are you thanking for, NNY?!
      I can’t stop wondering why do YOU think that YOUR opinion that Rafa could have lost in SFs is REALISTIC,
      but someone ELSE’s opinion that he could have lost are “”LOW EXPECTATIONS””?

      http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/hand-gestures/pondering-and-thinking-smiley-emoticon.gif

      I also can’t stop wondering why you keep attacking people for their OPINION. Don’t you remember the sentence: “People are entitled to give their opinion if they so wish” ?!
      🙂

      Reply

      • “What are you thanking for, NNY?!”

        I’m wondering why real rafans are asked to explain why they are thanking someone else and would rather Rafa to lose than to face Roger Federer. 🙂

        People are entitled to give thanks if they so wish without having to explain it to you. 🙂

        Reply

      • augusta,

        I will try to say this one more time and then I will not address it again. This is not complicate, but since you persist in distorting what I said then I feel the need to clarify it for the record.

        You are the one who was happy that Rafa lost to Raonic, so that he wouldn’t have to face Fed in the semis. I was the one who wanted Rafa to win against Raonic so that he could face Fed in the semis. Whether I think that Rafa could have lost was irrelevant because I still wanted him to get there and have the chance to play Fed. You were okay with him losing to a player who never beat him.

        I don’t care if Fed fans are happy. I only care about Rafa. I always want him to win, whereas you seem to want him to lose so that he doesn’t face a player who might beat him.

        You also do not understand the meaning of the word “attacking”. As I have explained previously, there is a difference between disagreeing with people and attacking them. If I say you have low expectations for Rafa, that is not attacking you. Now if I say something about you specifically, such as your opinion is stupid, silly nonsensical, or any other derogatory adjective, then that is attacking you. So you need to understand the difference and stop making accusations that are baseless and groundless.

        I also think that your icons are extremely disrespectful. It’s a way of making fun of the person to whom you are addressing your comment. Can’t you make your point without the use of these icons? Or is it your purpose to embarrass?

        Reply

      • Very well said nny.

        REAL rafans want Rafa to win every match he plays!!! Does not matter who he will play in the next round as long as he gets a chance to compete. But this is the difference between Rafa fans who are also tennis fans and Rafa fans that care more about the thought that Federer could possibly beat him.

        Vamos Rafa no matter what!!! 🙂

        Reply

      • Well I just hope that you not comparing me with nny. Don’t you? Or do you.

        I am curious as to why auguStan cherry picks and edits quotes out of context.

        It is not nny who was making fun, It was me. nadline calls me “she” and I call her “he”. We have both said here many times that we do this in good fun with each other. 🙂 🙂

        If you were as motivated, I am sureyou could find one of our many posts saying this. nny is a regular poster who understands this. I am wondering why you are not aware of this. But leave it to you to spend your energies to take things out of context. It is what you do best! 🙂 🙂

        Reply

      • March 23, 2015 at 5:29 pm,

        I remember that there were 2 trolls, whose posts I usually skipped: scoretracker and Conspirator who were writing to each other long-long-long posts. I tried to read them, but I never understood what was THEIR problem.

        Reply

  18. NNY,
    Are you living in NYC? I’m thinking of saving money for either Cincy or US Open this year. Maybe you can help me finding some room around NYC area during the tournament :). I’ve never watched Rafa and other guys in real person.

    Reply

    • Isco Alarcon,

      Sorry for the confusion, but my user name of Nativenewyorker is in honor of the city of my birth. However, I have not lived there for decades. I lived in L.A. until last year when I moved to Florida.

      Now that I am a lot closer to NY, I am wondering if I should think about making a trip there to see the USO. But I would not be able to help you regarding any accomodations in NYC. It’s been too long since I lived there.

      Where do you live? I know that Cincy is supposed to a great tournament.

      Reply

  19. The difference between “so-called real tennis fans” and Rafans is that Rafans ALWAYS vote for Rafa to win! No doubt about it!
    I have never voted for somebody else to win when Rafa has played and I’ll never do! No doubt about it!
    I have never predicted somebody else to win when Rafa has played and I’ll never do. No doubt about it!
    I keep my fingers crossed until the last point of a match is played. I have never accused him of not fulfilling MY (!!!) expectations, if he loses.
    But, after Rafa’s loss I accept the situation (because I can’t change the result) and I move on, and I still support him. No doubt about it!

    http://www.emoticonland.net/smileys/sports/spoort014.gif

    Reply

      • hawkeye,

        I agree with you all the way! I appreciate the fact that you can understand where I am coming from. I know that I don’t have to waste my time trying to explain myself to you.

        By the way, was there an implication that you and I might in some way be scoretracker and conspirator? Scoretracker was someone that made so many people’s lives miserable on TT. Thank goodness we don’t have to deal with that anymore.

        It takes a lot of nerve for anyone to take offense when Rafa fans here have been accused of not being real or true fans too many times to count. Now that the shoe is on the other foot, someone doesn’t like it.

        I am with you in always wanting Rafa to win, no matter who he will face next. However, I can accept his losses. Some are harder than others. But the way Rafa handles his losses helps me to put them in perspective. Whether Rafa would have beaten Fed or not is irrelevant to me. I wanted him to win against Raonic and get to the semis. The fact that he didn’t get it done isn’t the end of the world.

        Reply

  20. NNY and hawkeye, got to salute your patience 😉 It is amazing how a poster can deny something she said herself and then keeps posting stuff out of context to distort things.

    Anyway, Miami is here and there is no federer so let’s move on! I want rafa to reach the final here! He will have to face berdych in the Qtr and getting revenge would propel him.

    Reply

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