Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are one round away from a blockbuster semifinal showdown in Indian Wells. Standing in their way on Friday are Milos Raonic and Tomas Berdych, respectively.
(6) Milos Raonic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Aside from a 2014 Paris Masters upset of Roger Federer, Raonic has been mostly hopeless against the very best players in the world as he gets another shot at one of the “Big 4” during quarterfinal action at the BNP Paribas Open on Friday. The Canadian is a combined 1-18 lifetime against Nadal, Federer, and Novak Djokovic, including 0-5 with Nadal on the other side of the net. In total sets the Spaniard is 10-1 in the head-to-head series and 8-1 on hard courts. They finally had a competitive meeting last spring in Miami, where Nadal survived 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Fast forward almost exactly one year and Raonic has really established himself as a staple of the top eight. The 24-year-old reached the Wimbledon semifinals, the Paris title match, and he qualified for the World Tour Finals. So far in Indian Wells, Raonic has dominated Simone Bolelli, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Tommy Robredo. Despite constant complaints about the type of balls being used, Nadal has been solid this fortnight. The world No. 3 has not come close to dropping a set in wins over Igor Sijsling, Donald Young, and Gilles Simon. A hard court gives Raonic a slight chance, but the conditions are likely not fast enough for the underdog to completely turn the tide against one of his nemeses.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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(9) Tomas Berdych vs. (2) Roger Federer
By this matchup’s standards, Federer and Berdych have been in a drought in terms of going head-to-head against one another. They have not squared off in more than year, since the 2014 Dubai final–one of the longest such stretches of their careers. Federer has won 12 of their 18 meetings, including that Dubai title match via a 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 decision. Berdych, though, has taken two of their last three encounters dating back to the 2012 U.S. Open. Federer is 7-5 lifetime against the Czech on either hard courts or carpet.
There is a lot to like about the 33-year-old Swiss’ current form and his past history in Indian Wells. He is 14-1 this season and 50-10 overall in the desert, with four titles. So far this fortnight Federer has easily dismissed Diego Schwartzman, Andreas Seppi, and Jack Sock. Berdych has advance with wins over Sergiy Stakhovsky, Steve Johnson, and Lukas Rosol. The world No. 9 has been solid but–aside from an Australian Open upset of Nadal–unspectacular in 2015 and his Indian Wells campaign has been no different. Berdych’s record at this event was a mere 15-10 prior to this year, and his chances of reaching just a second semifinal at Larry Ellison’s establishment are not encouraging.
Pick: Federer in 2
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