Indian Wells preview and predictions

Rafael Nadal: out. Andy Murray: out. Stan Wawrinka: out. David Goffin: out. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: out. Richard Gasquet: out. Novak Djokovic: in. Kei Nishikori: in. Milos Raonic: in.

Is the end result of those aforementioned statuses anything other than cakewalk to a second consecutive BNP Paribas Open title for Roger Federer? The draw is certainly set up for him to do just that, as the world No. 1’s quarter—and his entire half, for that matter—is soft compared to the rest of the bracket. Djokovic’s first tournament since the Australian Open, on the other hand, may not last through the first weekend.

BNP Paribas Open

Where: Indian Wells, Calif.
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $7,972,535

Top seed: Roger Federer
Defending champion: Roger Federer

Draw analysis: Djokovic captured the Indian Wells title for the fifth time in his career in 2016. The draws have not been kind to him since. Last year he got Juan Martin Del Potro in the third round, Nick Kyrgios in the fourth round, and—if he had not lost to Kyrgios—Federer in the quarterfinals. This year (if he beats a qualifier), the Serb likely has Nishikori in the third round and Del Potro in the fourth round. That is an especially tough quarter of the bracket, where Del Potro possibly awaits Alex De Minaur before a potential third-round showdown with David Ferrer.

Marin Cilic, who has played just two matches since finishing runner-up to Federer at the Australian Open, has the rare distinction of being the No. 2 seed at a Masters 1000 event and is on a collision course with Del Potro for the Indian Wells quarterfinals.

Also in the bottom half are Raonic, Alexander Zverev, Jack Sock, and Lucas Pouille. With Raonic all the way down at No. 38 in the world, he could run into Zverev as early as the third round. Based on both current form and a more favorable draw, Pouille may actually be the favorite in this quarter. The 12^th-ranked Frenchman’s February swing featured a title in Montpellier and runner-up showings in both Marseille and Dubai.

It is hard to see when and where Federer will have any trouble. The 36-year-old is set to kick off his title defense against either Ryan Harrison or Federico Delbonis, and his nearest seed is Filip Krajinovic—who has been in fine form over the past four months but is unlikely to pose a real threat to the world’s best. Dominic Thiem, a possible quarterfinal foe for Federer, would obviously much prefer to face the Swiss on clay. The Austrian may be in line for a couple of entertaining early-rounds tests, with Stefanos Tsitsipas looming in round two and Denis Shapovalov a potential third-round adversary.

Dimitrov will have no easy time as he tries to earn another shot at Federer after falling in their head-to-head matchup in last month’s Rotterdam final. The Bulgarian’s quarter is also home to Andrey Rublev (possible third-round opponent), Roberto Bautista Agut (possible fourth-round opponent), Nick Kyrgios, and Kevin Anderson (possible quarterfinal opponents). Bautista Agut is coming off a title in Dubai, while Anderson won the New York Open and finished runner-up to Del Potro in Acapulco.

Some first-round matches to watch throughout the draw are Tiafoe vs. Ernesto Escobedo, Borna Coric vs. Donald Young, Steve Johnson vs. Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz vs. Reilly Opelka, and Fernando Verdasco vs. Guido Pella.

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Seeds at risk of losing their first match:

(5) Dominic Thiem: Conditions in Indian Wells are actually not too shabby for the 24-year-old Austrian, but a hard court is a hard court. Thiem and Tsitsipas played a good one against each other in the Doha quarterfinals two months ago (Thiem won 7-5, 6-4) and the 19-year-old from Greece has only grown in confidence since then.

(12) Tomas Berdych: No one other than Federer is a lock against Ivo Karlovic—not with that booming serve still coming in hot at 39 years old. The 6’11’’ Croat remains in decent form, with a third-round finish at the Australian Open and a quarterfinal result in Delray Beach. Playing solid but unspectacular tennis, Berdych trails the head-to-head series 5-3.

(15) John Isner: Isner’s 2018 campaign has been an unmitigated disaster. The 6’10’’ American is saddled with a 2-5 record and has won just a single ATP tournament match (one win came in the Davis Cup first round). An unseeded Gael Monfils would be a terrible draw for Isner, who trails the head-to-head series 5-4 and got blown out by the Frenchman in last year’s third round.

(19) Albert Ramos-Vinolas: As much as Ramos-Vinolas loves clay, his Golden Swing was mostly a debacle—especially following a decent start. He beat just one opponent in the top 100 (No. 98 Gerald Melzer) and lost to Nicolas Jarry in both Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. The Spaniard would have real trouble with Coric on a hard court.

(21) Kyle Edmund: Peter Gojowyczk should actually be considered the favorite if he faces Edmund in round two. After all, due to physical problems Britain’s new No. 1 player has not taken the match court since his Australian Open semifinal run. Gojowyczk, meanwhile, is 11-6 this season with a runner-up showing in Delray Beach.

(28) Feliciano Lopez: Tiafoe would have played Lopez in the second round last season, but he lost to eventual fourth-round performer Dusan Lajovic right off the bat. The 20-year-old Delray Beach champion has another tough opener on his hands against Escobedo, his fellow American, but he could make a real run if gets through that one.

(30) Pablo Cuevas: Cuevas has the pressure of defending quarterfinal points, and current form suggests he has little chance of accomplishing that feat. A potentially bad opening draw against Shapovalov does not help matters. The Canadian has won seven ATP-level matches in 2018 (one less than Cuevas) and reached the Delray Beach semifinals.

Hot: Roger Federer, Grigor Dimitrov, Juan Martin Del Potro, Kevin Anderson, Lucas Pouille, Roberto Bautista Agut, Fabio Fognini, Diego Schwartzman, Andrey Rublev, Peter Gojowyczk, Alex De Minaur, Frances Tiafoe, Stefanos Tsitsipas

Cold: Alexander Zverev, Jack Sock, Novak Djokovic, Pablo Carreno Busta, John Isner, Kei Nishikori, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Mischa Zverev, Victor Estrella Burgos, Jeremy Chardy

Quarterfinal predictions: Roger Federer over Tomas Berdych, Roberto Bautista Agut over Karen Khachanov, Lucas Pouille over Alexander Zverev, and Juan Martin Del Potro over Marin Cilic

Semifinals: Federer over Bautista Agut and Del Potro over Pouille

Final: Federer over Del Potro

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