Houston SF previews and predictions: Shelton vs. Etcheverry, Tiafoe vs. Darderi

Three of the top four seeds have advanced to the Houston semifinals and No. 1 Ben Shelton will face No. 4 Tomas Martin Etcheverry on Saturday. No. 3 Frances Tiafoe will look to fend off unseeded challenger Luciano Darderi.

(1) Ben Shelton vs. (4) Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Shelton had never even been to an ATP quarterfinal on clay heading into this week’s U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship. Suddenly he finds himself in a semifinal following victories over Zizou Bergs and Brandon Nakashima. Neither match was easy, as the 16th-ranked American battled past Bergs 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in round two before beating Brandon Nakashima 7-5, 7-6(9) on Friday.

Up next for Shelton on Saturday afternoon is a first-ever meeting with Etcheverry. Much unlike the 21-year-old, Etcheverry is already proven force on clay in the early stages of his career. The 24-year-old Argentine was a French Open quarterfinalist in 2023 and he has played his way into the Houston semis for a second consecutive season thanks to defeats of Daniel Elahi Galan and Michael Mmoh (via a second-set retirement). Shelton will have a chance if he serves extremely well, but in all likelihood he will get a free clay-court lesson from Etcheverry.

Pick: Etcheverry in 2

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(3) Frances Tiafoe vs. Luciano Darderi

Last year’s Houston title match saw Tiafoe get the best of Etcheverry. A rematch is possible on Sunday, but neither Shelton nor Darderi can be discounted. Darderi may not be a big name on tour yet, but the 22-year-old Italian has surged into the top 100 this season. He was ranked No. 136 going into Cordoba in February and came out of pretty much nowhere to snag his first ATP title. Darderi entered 2024 with one main-tour match win; he now owns 12 following Houston victories over Denis Kudla, Francisco Cerundolo (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Marcos Giron.

Tiafoe, on the other hand, needed some success this week in the worst way. The 21st-ranked American had won multiple matches at just a single tournament in 2024 (semifinals in Delray Beach), but he has accomplished that feat in Houston by beating James Duckworth and Jordan Thompson. Although those are decent wins for Tiafoe, they don’t do anything to suggest that he is anywhere close to returning to peaking form. Darderi is a rising star on clay and has a great opportunity to pull off an upset.

Pick: Darderi in 3

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