Both Carlos Alcaraz and Rafael Nadal missed the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters in 2023 and the result was a surprising semifinal lineup that included none of the top four seeds (Andrey Rublev ended up beating Holger Rune in the title match). This time around the field is stacked even though Nadal is once again sidelined. Every one one of the top 14 players in the world is in the Monte-Carlo draw, which is headlined by Alcaraz, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, and a red-hot Jannik Sinner.
This Masters 1000 tournament has been known to produce unexpected champions in recent seasons. Will more of that continue in 2024, or will either Djokovic, Sinner, or Alcaraz take care of business?
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,950,575 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Andrey Rublev
Draw analysis: Djokovic has achieved just about everything in his career, but in Monte-Carlo he has an opportunity to make even more history. If the 36-year-old Serb takes the title, he will have won every Masters 1000, every Grand Slam, and the Nitto ATP Finals at least three times.
It won’t be easy. For one, Djokovic has made it clear that his only real priorities at this stage of his tennis life are Grand Slams. Two, his draw could present some difficulty. Lorenzo Musetti upset Djokovic in the third round last season and they could go head-to-head at the exact same stage in 2024. Rublev, the defending champion, is a potential quarterfinal opponent for Djokovic and Alcaraz also finds himself in the top half of the bracket. Alcaraz could face Felix Auger-Aliassime in round one and Casper Ruud in the quarters.
Opposite Djokovic and Alcaraz, Sinner is a clear favorite in the bottom half. That being said, his opening match has danger written all over it in the form of either Sebastian Korda or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. An in-form Grigor Dimitrov is a possible quarterfinal foe and whoever emerges from the most stacked section (probably Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, or Stefanos Tsitsipas) would be a formidable semifinal opponent.
First-round matches to watch in Monte-Carlo include Korda vs. Davidovich Fokina, Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz, Alex de Minaur vs. Stan Wawrinka, Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jack Draper, and Alexander Bublik vs. Borna Coric.
First-round upset alert: Stan Wawrinka over (11) Alex de Minaur. A whole host of 9-16 seeds are in danger of losing in round one, but most of those cases wouldn’t be real upsets. Wawrinka defeating De Minaur at this stage of the Swiss’ career would be a true upset. Clay, however, gives the 39-year-old a chance. Wawrinka, who is still playing decent tennis at No. 82 in the world, is a former French Open champion (2015) and has always excelled on the dirt. For De Minaur, it’s by far his worst surface.
Second-round upset alert: Matteo Arnaldi over (7) Holger Rune. Rune has been all over the place this year, with a few decent results mixed in with some terrible performances. After finishing runner-up last spring, the seventh-ranked Dane is faced with the pressure of defending a lot of points. He may not defend any, because his first match is likely to come against Arnaldi – one of the most dangerous unseeded floaters in the field. The 23-year-old Italian is playing the best tennis of his young career and clay should only help him continue his hot streak.
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Ugo Humbert, Matteo Arnaldi, Sebastian Baez, Dominik Koepfer
Cold: Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Francisco Cerundolo, Miomir Kecmanovic, Felix Auger-Aliassime
Quarterfinal predictions: Andrey Rublev over Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz over Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev over Karen Khachanov, and Jannik Sinner over Matteo Arnaldi
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Rublev and Sinner over Zverev
Final: Sinner over Alcaraz
No mention of Fritz this time. Think Musetti will beat him on clay .
I wonder about Ruud also. Looked exhausted in Estoril, looking forward to how Hurkacz does in the final – he might struggle in MC tired too.