French Open QF previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Thiem, Djokovic vs. Cecchinato

The anticipated Alexander Zverev vs. Dominic Thiem quarterfinal showdown has come to fruition at the French Open. In the other section of the draw’s bottom half, Novak Djokovic has a more surprising opponent on his hands in the form of Marco Cecchinato.

(7) Dominic Thiem vs. (2) Alexander Zverev

Zverev and Thiem will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time during this clay-court swing when they battle for a spot in the French Open semifinals on Tuesday. Thiem leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but Zverev has won two of their last three meetings after most recently triumphing 6-4, 6-4 in the Madrid final. Thiem is still in front 3-1 on clay, having prevailed three times in 2016–including via a 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 decision at Roland Garros.

Just 19 years old when they first squared off in Paris, Zverev is now one of the undisputed best players in the world and certainly one of the most capable on clay. In fact, this a matchup between arguably the second-best clay-courters on tour behind Rafael Nadal. Zverev is an amazing 21-3 on the red stuff in 2018 (21-1 against opponents other than Nadal) with titles in Munich and Madrid plus a runner-up finish in Rome. Thiem also owns a pair of titles this season, having won in Buenos Aires four months ago before lifting the trophy a little more than a week ago in Nice. The latter gave the eighth-ranked Austrian plenty of momentum going into Roland Garros, where he has defeated Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, and Kei Nishikori in mostly convincing fashion. Already a two-time French Open semifinalist, Thiem enjoys the Paris conditions much more than those of Madrid and he is playing well enough to take advantage of an opponent who may wear down in another competitive contest having already played 18 sets during this event.

Pick: Thiem in 5

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Marco Cecchinato vs. (20) Novak Djokovic

While Nadal is making mincemeat out of a weaker top half of the bracket, Djokovic’s draw has worked out nicely for him on the other side. The 22nd-ranked Serb has not run into anyone inside the top 12 of the rankings and that will continue through the quarterfinals, in which he has a surprising date with Cecchinato on Tuesday. Having recovered from an elbow injury and with his old team back in place, Djokovic finally heated up for the first time in 2018 by reaching the Rome semis and testing Nadal in a tight two-setter. The former world No. 1 has cruised for the most part in Paris, taking out Rogerio Dutra Silva, Jaume Munar, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Fernando Verdasco.

Cecchinato’s run is nothing short of shocking, as the 72nd-ranked Italian had never won a main-draw match at any Grand Slam in his entire career prior to this fortnight. In fact, he was a mere 12-32 lifetime at the main-tour level heading into the French Open. From completely out of nowhere, Cecchinato earned an improbable place in the quarters by beating Marius Copil (10-8 in the fifth set), lucky loser Marco Trungelliti, No. 10 seed Pablo Carreno Busta, and eighth-seeded David Goffin. The 25-year-old has at least been relevant on clay over the past couple of seasons, but even on this surface it will be tough for him to handle the enormity of the occasion against an opponent who is recapturing his world-class form.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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22 Comments on French Open QF previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Thiem, Djokovic vs. Cecchinato

  1. Djojovic in 4 due to the grind and gamesmanship. However, the upset is very possible.

    Zverez is a terrible matchup Thiem. I’d be interested to know Zverev’s record against players with a SHB other than Federer.

    Zverev in 4

  2. Court Philippe-Chatrier
    Play starts at 2pm

    Dominic THIEM (AUT) [7] vs Alexander ZVEREV (GER) [2]

    Perfect, I’ll be sitting right behind the players for this one.

  3. djoko ended up getting the easiest qf of all..how strange..he had to play dimi n goffin n ended up playing none..so lucky

  4. Thiem in 3 easy ( unders and Thiem -2.5 to both hit)
    Djokovic in 3 tight sets ( still the overs and Cecchinato +8.5 will both hit)

    Women’s side –
    Keys in 2 ( unders and keys -4.5 both to hit )
    Stephens in 3 tight sets ( 2 tight sets and 1 run away set ) ( over and handicap +.5 to hit .
    Best of luck all. My reasons posted in main forum .

  5. Zverev in 4. Zverev for once took some time off before a slam, and that has worked great for him, and he is not in his deepest run in a slam. And it’s not over! People think Zverev is tired? He is young, and had a week off before FO. Thiem didnt have a break, and came from winning a tournament straight to Roland Garros, he is the one who is tired, and if not already, Zverev will make him today in a tough battle with few short points. Zverev played 3 b2b 5 sets, true, but Thiem played b2b 4 setters, which means Zverev just played 3 sets more than Thiem.

    Zverev in 4 sets.

  6. Thiem should win this one. Sasha is tired! He played much more matches and sets than Thiem from MC to RG; in fact he played the most matches so far this year.

    Thiem’s matches were shorter too this FO compared to Sasha’s. I think slow clay is more of Thiem’s forte than Sasha’s; Sasha is/was taken to the distance at Rome and RG, two places where the clay surfaces are/were slow, much slower than that at Madrid.

  7. Like most, I thought Thiem v Zverev was the most likely match-up for that part of the draw. I said it’s pretty much 50-50 at the start of the tournament, with the slight edge to Thiem, if anyone. The first four rounds haven’t really changed that view, since Zverev has struggled a bit at times, while Thiem has had it easier, despite a tougher draw.

    I think Zverev has turned a corner by making it this far, and also by fighting through in those five set wins, which I feel he probably would have lost in the past. Still, he is not that convincing, and three B2B five setters may test his fitness here if it goes the distance. It probably will go the distance, as Zverev is not an easy match-up for Thiem, but Thiem has more firepower and experience on clay, so I’m going for him in 5.

    For the other match, I haven’t seen much of Cecchinato, but I’d agree with the standard pick of Djokovic in 3. Djokovic is not quite back to his best yet, he’s maybe 75 or 80%, but that’s still good enough to beat most players, and I don’t think he’ll let an opportunity to neutralize an unknown guy slip by him.

  8. Djoko will most likely get every ball back and makes his opponent frustrated and thus extracts errors from his opponent. It’s never easy to hit through Djoko on the slower surfaces.

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