French Open QF previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Thiem, Djokovic vs. Cecchinato

The anticipated Alexander Zverev vs. Dominic Thiem quarterfinal showdown has come to fruition at the French Open. In the other section of the draw’s bottom half, Novak Djokovic has a more surprising opponent on his hands in the form of Marco Cecchinato.

(7) Dominic Thiem vs. (2) Alexander Zverev

Zverev and Thiem will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time during this clay-court swing when they battle for a spot in the French Open semifinals on Tuesday. Thiem leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but Zverev has won two of their last three meetings after most recently triumphing 6-4, 6-4 in the Madrid final. Thiem is still in front 3-1 on clay, having prevailed three times in 2016–including via a 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 decision at Roland Garros.

Just 19 years old when they first squared off in Paris, Zverev is now one of the undisputed best players in the world and certainly one of the most capable on clay. In fact, this a matchup between arguably the second-best clay-courters on tour behind Rafael Nadal. Zverev is an amazing 21-3 on the red stuff in 2018 (21-1 against opponents other than Nadal) with titles in Munich and Madrid plus a runner-up finish in Rome. Thiem also owns a pair of titles this season, having won in Buenos Aires four months ago before lifting the trophy a little more than a week ago in Nice. The latter gave the eighth-ranked Austrian plenty of momentum going into Roland Garros, where he has defeated Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, and Kei Nishikori in mostly convincing fashion. Already a two-time French Open semifinalist, Thiem enjoys the Paris conditions much more than those of Madrid and he is playing well enough to take advantage of an opponent who may wear down in another competitive contest having already played 18 sets during this event.

Pick: Thiem in 5

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Marco Cecchinato vs. (20) Novak Djokovic

While Nadal is making mincemeat out of a weaker top half of the bracket, Djokovic’s draw has worked out nicely for him on the other side. The 22nd-ranked Serb has not run into anyone inside the top 12 of the rankings and that will continue through the quarterfinals, in which he has a surprising date with Cecchinato on Tuesday. Having recovered from an elbow injury and with his old team back in place, Djokovic finally heated up for the first time in 2018 by reaching the Rome semis and testing Nadal in a tight two-setter. The former world No. 1 has cruised for the most part in Paris, taking out Rogerio Dutra Silva, Jaume Munar, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Fernando Verdasco.

Cecchinato’s run is nothing short of shocking, as the 72nd-ranked Italian had never won a main-draw match at any Grand Slam in his entire career prior to this fortnight. In fact, he was a mere 12-32 lifetime at the main-tour level heading into the French Open. From completely out of nowhere, Cecchinato earned an improbable place in the quarters by beating Marius Copil (10-8 in the fifth set), lucky loser Marco Trungelliti, No. 10 seed Pablo Carreno Busta, and eighth-seeded David Goffin. The 25-year-old has at least been relevant on clay over the past couple of seasons, but even on this surface it will be tough for him to handle the enormity of the occasion against an opponent who is recapturing his world-class form.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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55 Comments on French Open QF previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Thiem, Djokovic vs. Cecchinato

    • I just came home to see that Novak lost. Reading his comments after the match are concerning. How much is injury and how much is him not being able to find his form again? He sounds pretty bad from what I have read.

      • right calf injury supposedly

        here are some tweets

        Christopher Clarey

        Verified account

        @christophclarey
        50m50 minutes ago
        More
        Have seen Novak Djokovic at quite a few low moments. That rushed news conference was one of the very lowest. He didn’t see that defeat coming

        Christopher Clarey

        Verified account

        @christophclarey
        19m19 minutes ago
        More
        Just to be clear: It was Djokovic’s decision to come to his press conference so quickly after the match and it was Djokovic’s decision to go into a smaller interview room despite being informed that it was not the ideal spot given the interest in the match.

        Matt Zemek

        @mzemek
        41m41 minutes ago
        More
        Everything which *seems* to be coming out of the Djokovic presser *appears* (I won’t use absolutist language here) to reflect frustration more than the confusion which marked Djokovic’s March and early April…
        which tells me the “no-grass” remark contains no real news value.

        • Yes, saying he might not play the grass season was just a flippant comment because of his mood, I don’t think he really means it. Unless he’s injured, it would be churlish of him to skip the grass season because of his disappointment of losing the match today. All players have had bitter losses, but they still get over it and carry on. Rafa lost to Verdasco in the 1st round at the AO in 2016 after a disappointing 2015 but still kept working to improve his game.

          Cecchinato had as much right to win the match as Djokovic. It the outcome is decided by reputation only then there would be no need to play the match. Matches are won on court that’s why predictions are only for fun.

      • NNY, the Djoker had a super comfortable draw. I think he might be extremely frustrated right now. He really should’ve made it into the semis, even if Thiem would probably have been too high a hurdle for him atm. Let’s wait how the world looks for him after a few days…

        • littlefoot,

          Thanks. I was thinking that Novak might sound a bit rash right now. When he calms down, he will see things differently.

          I do agree that Novak has a favorable draw. He knows it, too. He should have won this match. He knows that, too. I also agree that Thiem would have been too much for him.

          He just needs to calm down and get some perspective.

          • I feel sorry for him nny!
            Missing some of those set points with an open court has to hurt!
            He shouldn’t have spent so much time with that idiot pepe…it’s affected his competitive abilities! I hate people who set themselves up as gurus!!

          • amy,

            This is a tough loss for him. It’s a psychological blow. The fact that he had chances makes it even worse. But being two sets down is always a difficult climb,

            Novak needs to calm down and put this in perspective.

            You think that guru is really responsible for his woes now?

          • Well it’s Nole ‘s responsibility for frittering away time listening to him! But he certainly had a very bad affect on his game and then the time away for injury. When he made the inexplicable errors it reminded me a bit of when rafa lost confidence in 2015. Not that I want to start comparing rafa and Nole as there are so many obvious differences!
            When you lose confidence, playing against a significantly lower ranked player who everyone expect you to beat can be really tough! We saw a bit of that when rafa went mentally AWOL against Marterer in the third set. The pressure rafa is under with everyone saying he will win RG probably without dropping a set is really horrible and I do get scared for him at times.

          • amy says AT 7:45 PM: “We saw a bit of that when rafa went mentally AWOL against Marterer in the third set. ”
            ===
            It’s just your interpretation!
            Rafa said: “…in the third set, I had the chance at the beginning to get the break and probably take an important advantage to close the match, but I didn’t convert it. I then made a couple of mistakes with my serve, and then I suffered in a tough third set. I stopped [using my] legs a little bit, in terms of playing aggressive, and that, of course, made the match more equal. He’s a good player.”

            https://youtu.be/JZaQWxIKpW8

          • Djoko obviously not at his best and still some way to go. It’s not only in this match but in his previous matches too, it’s obvious for those watching him to see that.

            It’s more the Italian guy’s own undoing during the third set that they needed the fourth set that gave Djoko some hope. The Italian hit so many winners and his serve was a weapon; Djoko wasn’t as match fit as he used to be so he couldn’t maintain a high level (when given a chance once his opponent had his lapses) throughout.

            His previous few round opponents weren’t good enough to capitalize on Djoko’s weaknesses, this Marco at least got a second wind and managed to do that. Djoko is not going to beat Thiem even if he gets past Marco, imo.

  1. Cecchinato is from Sicily and has once been banned for match fixing. Wow! Well, he has earned so much money the honest way in the past week that he may not have to resort to these desperate measures anytime soon, lol!
    While match fixing is totally wrong, I’m hesitant to ride the high horse and condemn the low level players. They really earn far too little, and it’s very hard to make a living for them.
    What I cannot understand is why players like Dolgo become involved in such schemes…

          • NNY apparently he has been banned for 18 months and was hit with a huge fine. But an appeal court cleared him. That’s quite a story. I need to learn more about this.

            Match fixing is a huge problem on the lower levels because it’s fairly easy in comparison with team sports, and it’s hard to prove. Even if the bets get suspended it’s hard to prove if the match was fixed or not. Lower ranked players need to earn more money.

          • It’s a huge problem, littlefoot. According to the pro at my local club, you pretty much have to be in the top 150, maybe 100, to earn a decent living in tennis.

            By comparison, if you’re the 100th best player in the world in many sports, you’re a multi-millionaire. Tennis may be the most unequal sport in terms of pay, even more so than golf.

          • Joe, I agree with you. The income of the lower ranked players is ridiculously low, although they may technically still belong to the best tennis players in the world. It’s just not right. And the tempatation to fix a match is huge, because it seems to be so easy, and the player may get more money than he would earn by winning the whole low thier tournament.

          • Ittlefoot,

            Thanks for getting more info. I don’t know that many are familiar with this. I was surprised when I heard about Dolgopolov being accused of match fixing.

          • Ricky, you are right. Cecchinato hasn’t been technically cleared at all. But there have been irregularities in the process of evidence collection, and the evidence could therefore not be used against him.
            Whatever -he won this match fair and square. I highl doubt that the Djoker fixed this match, lol! Although his 4th set collapse looks highly suspicious to me.

      • Well, Rafa and Diego both have to deal with the bad weather tomorrow. But if Rafa makes it into the semis on Friday, good weather might be important since he will face one of the big hitters, who could make life unpleasant for him on sluggish clay with heavy balls.

    • littlefoot,

      Thank you again for the clarification regarding match fixing with Cecchinato. They did not get into it in any detail on the tennis channel. But they did say he was cleared. It sounds a bit more complicated. If the evidence could not be used against him, then that would be whinthe appeals court might have cleared him.

      But as you said, he won this match fair and square.

      • NNY, yes, the case seems to be complicated.
        Dologopolov’s case is stunning. As far as I know, it could not be proven. But insiders who watched the match swear that Dolgo tried his damned best to lose that match. And the betting pattern was so suspicious that most betting agencies shut the bets down. One should think, though, that Dolgo can make a living as a tennis pro without supplementing his income through match fixing . But then, he is Ukrainian, lol! And since he has some kind of chronic illness which can always flare up, it’s very hard to prove anything conclusively since he has a built-in excuse for playing great one day and lousy the next.

          • littlefoot,

            I remember hearing about the accusation of match fixing against Dolgo. It was during a match he was playing and they talked about it quite a bit, I don’t remember when this was. I can believe it would be hard to prove, given that he is so inconsistent. But it is really disturbing to find out that this is going on in the sport.

          • NNY, it became known during last year’s US Open. Dolgo was asked about it, and basically told all journos to get lost, lol!
            I don’t think that match fixing is a big problem at top level tennis. As we have discussed, it’s normally the lower ranked players who are tempted because it’s easy and they need the money.

  2. I think what we’re finally seeing, as I’ve been saying for awhile, is clear evidence that the top guys are past their best. Novak did not play poorly today, though he didn’t capitalize as he said. But he is 31, and dealing with nagging injuries that anyone that age has to deal with. Murray and Stan are both past their best, even if they come back. They won’t be winning slams, and Djokovic is not going to attain his 2015-16 level again.

    I also think Nadal is past his best, which was last year in a short last hurrah. He is good enough that he is still the best on clay, and he may win another couple RG’s (more likely just one, imo). He is 32 and almost certainly done winning slams elsewhere. Fed, meanwhile, is long past his best, which ended around 2010-11. Only the switch to a larger racquet helped to prolong his career, which had been in decline before then. But even on an abbreviated schedule he is no lock to win more slams. Perhaps this wimby will be his last.

    We’re finally looking at the end of the greatest era of men’s tennis.

    • That’s the normal course of the things,father time catches us all in the end.
      Just saw the replay of the match and fair play to Cechinatto,was ripping winners in the first two sets and played some really inspired tennis troughout the match.
      IMO,Djoko STILL has time to rack up some Majors. He’s definitely a step slower now,but still a fast player around the court. The thing is,he can’t just retract himself behind the baseline,relying on his defense and grinding out everyone,like he did in the past. He has to start taking more risks,being more agressive and going for the lines. Sure that’s a bit far from his comfort zone right now,but remember,he was a very agressive player on his early years. It’s just on his head,if he has the will to improve like Fedal always had,he’ll be back to a very good level of tennis before fading away.

        • littlefoot,

          I agree with you. I do not think that Novak is on a par with Rsfa and Fed in this category. I think what Rafa and Fed are doing now is extraordinary. It is a testament to their love for this sport and their willingness to keep on keeping on.

          I am not saying that Novak is done for certain. I would never say never. But I think he is going to have to search inside himself and find the will and desire to keep on fighting.

          • NNY, and you know what? If the Djoker doesn’t find this extra gear which is necessary for playing near the very top – well, maybe there are other more important things in his life now. Tennis isn’t everything. The Djoker had one of the greatest tennis careers ever. Whatever he does with the rest of his life, it’s his business.

          • You are probably right littlefoot. Everything was going amazingly well for Novak and suddenly everything started falling apart.First,the personal life problems(cheating stuff) and then the physical ones. That surely makes it even harder to comeback to a higher level again.
            The balance between personal life/career of Fedal is just notable.
            To think that Rafa had so many setbacks due to injuries and was always able to comeback stronger makes him such a special individual!
            It really makes me angry to see people talking about Djoko like if he’s a complete nobody. After all,he had a brilliant career and whatever happens from now on,he already is a stablished ATG.

          • IMO,Djoko probably was never as strong as Fedal off the court. I remember that after losing to Melzer in 2010 RG,he said that he thought about retiring after that loss.
            In the other hand,Federer said that he wasn’t thinking about retiring,right after all those painful losses in GS finals against Djoko.

      • Agree woth Joe and Gaviria. I wouldn’t add that the change of generations is already happening, probably faster than most of us expected, although Fedal won the last 5 slams.

  3. Craig O’Shannessy, the strategist for the ATP Tour and an adviser to Djokovic, was impressed with the Italian’s game plan, suggesting he could even threaten Nadal, should they both make the final.

    “Cecchinato is a really bad match-up for Nadal, out of everyone who’s left, and maybe the way he’s playing right now, if he carries this form in, maybe even more than Thiem,” O’Shannessy told ESPN.com. “Sneaking in, the drop shots, he’s so smart. It’s great, it’s entertaining, smart, he’s so good this guy.”

    Cecchinato has already shown that anything is possible. Should he get past Thiem, then even Nadal might be concerned.

    http://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/23706509/french-open-nowhere-marco-cecchinato-now-road-somewhere-paris

    • I doubt that he will get past Thiem. I also doubt that he will be a bigger threat for Rafa than Thiem, should they meet in the final. That’s laughable!

  4. It wasn’t Stan’s choice. Magnus Norman moved on to other things, I forget the whole story. Maybe something to do with his kids getting older.

  5. Novak was too nervous in this match! He acted wildly in some of his celebrations and I was unpleasantly surprised when he had one of his celebration outbursts on Checcinato’s huge miss at the net! I felt sorry for the guy and thought how that would pretty much kill his underdog confidence and belief. But out of nowhere he came back and fought for the win! Respect for that!

    Novak clearly has issues not only form wise but mentally as well. He did not expect to lose this one, neither did his team. But these things happen on the way back from the injury lay off and Novak should overcome this situation and move on. I don’t think he is injured, he is just too disappointed at the moment to think clearly. Don’t think he will skip grass season!

  6. All these injury reports are completely bs and are to be used for a excuse. Look at del potro. He said he has a groin tear and wasn’t even gonna play French open but he did and he is completely fine. Ya can’t use I jury excuses for djoker.

  7. After re-watching the end of the match, it wouldn’t surprise me if Novak is still having problem with his elbow. The form on his FH looked off to me, and although it’s possible that it’s due to fatigue, I think it’s more likely that the elbow hasn’t fully healed or perhaps was re-injured recently.

    I doubt Djokovic would flippantly suggest skipping the grass court season simply as a reaction to a tough loss. He’s had too much success on that surface for him to skip it unless he has a good reason, so I’m guessing that there really is an injury of some sort.

    • Novak himself totally denied this. Why would he lie about such a thing?
      We will see if he really will skip the grass court season.
      But this reaction is indeed alarming. He could’ve said that he couldn’t wait for the grass court season.

  8. Yes, all the injuries is BS. There were no complaints when he was dishing it to his opponents and winning in straight sets. All of a sudden when the scoreboard changes, the injuries start hurting and affecting their gameplay.

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